Ukraine’s draft woes leave the West facing pressure to make up for the troop shortfall
But the effort has been met with public skepticism, draft dodging and opposition to unpopular, heavy-handed attempts to root out those not heeding the call to sign up.
- But the effort has been met with public skepticism, draft dodging and opposition to unpopular, heavy-handed attempts to root out those not heeding the call to sign up.
- And that puts pressure on the West’s current strategy to support Ukraine primarily through military aid.
Too few boots on the ground
- But after Ukraine’s unsuccessful counteroffensive of 2023, recruiting for the war has become much more difficult.
- At the end of March 2024, a nationwide poll asked Ukrainians how they thought their draft-age acquaintances might respond to a call to serve.
- Another nationwide poll taken at the time found only 8% willing to “take up arms” against the Russian invaders.
- To transform this struggle into one that Ukraine could win, he said, would require more than five times that amount.
- A law approved in April – after being delayed for nearly a year – seeks to change this.
Growing resentment
- As one Ukrainian military expert cited by French newspaper Le Monde put it, even if the number of new Ukrainian recruits were twice what is expected, “it is not enough.” Adding even these soldiers, however, comes with growing resentment over efforts to browbeat would-be recruits into compliance.
- Ukrainians residing abroad will be denied consular services, including passport renewal, if they fail to comply with registration demands within 60 days.
- As the Ukrainian media has pointed out, these penalties provide ample opportunity for bribery at each stage of the process.
NATO troops to the rescue?
- While some Western analysts have been making this point for years, many politicians in the West have studiously ignored it.
- Now, an increasing number of them are coming to the conclusion that there is no other choice but to send in NATO troops to stave off Ukraine’s defeat.
- While President Joe Biden has vowed repeatedly not to send U.S. troops to Ukraine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Q.