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Isabel Schnabel: The state contingency of monetary policy transmission

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木曜日, 4月 25, 2024

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Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024

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木曜日, 4月 25, 2024

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The European Banking Authority (EBA) today launched a public consultation on its draft Regulatory Technical Standards (RTS) on the method for identifying the main risk driver and determining whether a transaction represents a long or a short position. These RTS are part of the Phase 1 deliverables of the EBA roadmap on the implementation of the EU banking package in the area of market risk. The consultation runs until 24 July 2024.

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The European Banking Authority (EBA) today launched a public consultation on its draft Regulatory Technical Standards (RTS) on the method for identifying the main risk driver and determining whether a transaction represents a long or a short position. These RTS are part of the Phase 1 deliverables of the EBA roadmap on the implementation of the EU banking package in the area of market risk. The consultation runs until 24 July 2024.

Central bank asset purchases and auction cycles revisited: new evidence from the euro area

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金曜日, 4月 19, 2024

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Working Paper Series

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Working Paper Series
Federico Maria Ferrara
Central bank asset purchases
and auction cycles revisited:
new evidence from the euro area

No 2927

Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank
(ECB).
Abstract
This study provides new evidence on the relationship between unconventional monetary
policy and auction cycles in the euro area.
The findings indicate that Eurosystem?s asset purchase flows mitigate
yield cycles during auction periods and counteract the amplification impact of market volatility.
The dampening effect of central bank asset purchases on auction cycles is more sizeable and
precisely estimated for purchases of securities with medium-term maturities and in jurisdictions
with relatively lower credit ratings.
On the other hand, central banks may influence price dynamics in these markets, most notably
through their asset purchase programmes.
If so, do central bank asset purchases
affect bond yield movements around auction dates?
Auction cycles are present when secondary market yields rise in
anticipation of a debt auction and fall thereafter, generating an inverted V-shaped pattern around auction
dates.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2927
3

1

Introduction

The impact of central bank asset purchases on government bond markets is a focal point of economic and
financial research.
If so,
do central bank asset purchases shape yield sensitivity around auction dates?
The paper provides new evidence on the effects of Eurosystem?s asset purchases on secondary market
yields around public debt auction dates.
The analysis builds on previous research based on aggregate data
on central bank asset purchases and a shorter analysis period (van Spronsen and Beetsma 2022).
Using
granular data on Eurosystem?s asset purchases offers an opportunity to shed light on the mechanisms linking
unconventional monetary policy and auction cycles.
Given this legal constraint, the study
hypothesises that the effect of asset purchases on 10-year auction cycles is mostly indirect, and goes via price
spillovers generated by purchases of securities outside the 10-year maturity space.
Taken together, these results provide new evidence about auction cycles in Europe and contribute to a
larger literature on the flow effects of central bank asset purchases on bond markets.
Section 4 offers descriptive evidence about auction cycles in the euro area.
Auction cycles are defined by the presence of an inverted V-shaped pattern in secondary market yields
around primary auctions.
That is, government bond yields rise in the run-up to the date of the auction and
fall back to their original level after the auction.
Their limited risk-bearing capacities and inventory management operations are
seen as key mechanisms driving auction cycles (Beetsma et al.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2927
7

Second, central bank asset purchases can alleviate the cycle by (partly) absorbing the additional supply
of substitutable instruments in the secondary market (van Spronsen and Beetsma 2022).
This expectation is
supported by several analyses on the price effects of central bank bond purchases (D?Amico and King 2013;
Arrata and Nguyen 2017; De Santis and Holm-Hadulla 2020).
Empirically, previous research has provided evidence of auction cycles taking place across different jurisdictions.
(2016) detect auction cycles for government debt in Italy, but not in Germany, during the European
sovereign debt crisis.
Research on the impact of central bank asset purchases on yield cycles around auctions is still limited.
Their paper provides evidence
that Eurosystem?s asset purchases reduce the presence of auction cycles for euro area government debt.
Nonetheless, several questions remain open about auction cycles and unconventional monetary policy
in the euro area.
Therefore, they
provide only a partial picture of auction cycles and central bank asset purchases in Europe.
The use of granular data on central bank asset purchases is especially important in light of the modalities
of monetary policy implementation of the Eurosystem.
Altogether, these elements motivate further investigation of the relationship between central bank asset
purchases and auction cycles in the euro area.
Taken together, these results confirm that Eurosystem?s asset purchases mitigate yield cycles during auction periods and counteract the amplification impact of market volatility.
The findings confirm that the flow
effects of central bank purchases on yield movements around auction dates are driven by lower-rated countries.
Additional analyses provide evidence for an indirect effect of purchases on auction cycles and highlight
the presence of substantial heterogeneity across jurisdictions and purchase programmes.
Flow Effects of Central Bank Asset Purchases on Sovereign Bond
Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.
Federico Maria Ferrara
European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; email: [email protected]
? European Central Bank, 2024
Postal address 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Telephone
+49 69 1344 0
Website
www.ecb.europa.eu
All rights reserved.

Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A)

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木曜日, 4月 18, 2024

Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.

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Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.
The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers.

Philip R. Lane: Disinflation in the euro area: an update

Retrieved on:

木曜日, 4月 18, 2024

Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.

Key Points:

Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.
The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers.

Meeting of 6-7 March 2024

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金曜日, 4月 5, 2024

We find that banks experiencing large deposit outflows reduce credit, but not the interest rate they charge, to the same borrower relative to other lenders.

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We find that banks experiencing large deposit outflows reduce credit, but not the interest rate they charge, to the same borrower relative to other lenders.
This credit restriction is stronger for fixed rate and longer maturity loans, but not for riskier borrowers.

Changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy

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水曜日, 4月 3, 2024

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This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.

Key Points:

This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.
The findings suggest that households have primarily adjusted their consumption spending to cope with higher inflation.

Isabel Schnabel: The Eurosystem’s operational framework

Retrieved on:

水曜日, 4月 3, 2024

This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.

Key Points:

This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.
The findings suggest that households have primarily adjusted their consumption spending to cope with higher inflation.

Luis de Guindos: Interview with Naftemporiki

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水曜日, 4月 3, 2024

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This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.

Key Points:

This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.
The findings suggest that households have primarily adjusted their consumption spending to cope with higher inflation.

Debate on: Is the inflation surge over and what are the lessons for monetary policy?

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水曜日, 4月 3, 2024

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Shocks to the shortages variable are constructed as deviations in the values from the sample mean.

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Shocks to the shortages variable are constructed as deviations in the values from the sample mean.
Shocks to the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio (labour market variable) are constructed
as the actual value minus the value in the fourth quarter of 2019.
?Indirect impact of energy prices on non-energy inflation? is the sum of the indirect effects of oil,
gas and electricity prices.
3
Historical
Rubric comparison of inflation episodes in the euro area ? headline and core
Headline

Core

(percentage points)

(percentage points)
Current euro area episode
Past global episodes

Current euro area episode
Past global episodes
2

2

0

0

-2
-4

-2

-6
-8

-4

-10
-12

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

-6

24

Months around inflation peak

-24

-18

-12
-6
0
6
12
Months around inflation peak

18

Sources: BIS, Eurostat and ECB calculations.
The dark blue line represents the latest developments in headline and core inflation for the euro area, relative to the October
2022 peak.
Non-energy industrial goods inflation refers to a panel of all euro area countries, while services inflation refers to
a panel of 30 AEs and 28 EMEs.
Month = 0 is when the headline inflation value is at the highest during that particular episode.
The dark blue line represents the latest developments
in non-energy industrial goods and services inflation for the euro area, relative to the October 2022 peak.
unprocessed
food and energy
HICPX

8
3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0
1.5

1.5
1.0
Feb-24

Jul-24

1.0
Dec-24 Feb-24

Jul-24

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

Adjusted
measures

Difference
4

3

2

1

0
0
0
Feb-24 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24
Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24
Feb-24 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24
Feb-24

Dec-24

Sources: Eurostat, March 2024 ECB staff short-term inflation outlook, Consensus
Economics, Bloomberg and ECB calculations.
The ?adjusted?
measures abstract from energy and supply-bottleneck shocks using a large SVAR, see
Ba?bura, Bobeica and Mart?nez-Hern?ndez (2023), ?What drives core inflation?
Notes: 5-days moving average risk-neutral
probabilities of inflation implied by five-year and tenyear zero-coupon inflation options.
16
8

12
Quarters

16

20

Policy
Rubriccounterfactuals
Interest rate under alternative
counterfactuals

Counterfactual impacts on
Inflation

(percentages per annum)

(annual percentage change)

Baseline
Earlier and longer
Earlier, longer and higher

8

Baseline

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2021Q4

2022Q4

2023Q4

2024Q4

Earlier, longer and higher

10

2

8

0

6

-2

4

-4

2

-6

0

-8

-2

2025Q4

Earlier and longer

Output gap

(p.p.
The RHS chart displays the impact on inflation (first panel) and output gap (second panel) for each of the hypothetical alternative paths of the interest
rate.
As a caveat, financial feedback loops as well as feedback loops between inflation expectations and inflation are not activated.