Reform UK

LORD ASHCROFT POLL: LABOUR EXTEND LEAD DESPITE BUDGET; VOTERS SAY BORIS A LIABILITY NOT AN ASSET TO TORY CAMPAIGN

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Giovedì, Marzo 14, 2024
Conservative Party, Michael Ashcroft, Go for broke, Tory, Telegraphy, Research, Red, Political lists, News, Red Knight, Red Queen, Keir Starmer, Conservatism, National Insurance, Rishi Sunak, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats (UK), Biography

LONDON, March 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Boris Johnson would be a liability to the Conservative election campaign according to the latest poll from Lord Ashcroft, and Labour have extended their lead even though voters backed individual Budget measures.

Key Points: 
  • LONDON, March 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Boris Johnson would be a liability to the Conservative election campaign according to the latest poll from Lord Ashcroft, and Labour have extended their lead even though voters backed individual Budget measures.
  • Following news that Boris Johnson is set to campaign for the Conservatives at the election, we found voters saying he would be a liability to the Tories rather than an asset by 59% to 20%.
  • Keir Starmer was seen as a net liability by 33% to 31%, and Angela Rayner by 27% to 24%.
  • Full details and data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com
    LORD ASHCROFT KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, pollster and author.

Wellingborough and Kingswood byelections: it’s never been this bad for the Conservatives, and it could still get worse

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Venerdì, Febbraio 16, 2024
Politics, Conservatism, Hamas, Commons, Reform UK, News, Tory, Government, By-election, Death, Wilderness, Brexit, House, Recall, MP, Rishi Sunak, Blackpool South

But the party’s defeat in Wellingborough in Northamptonshire was particularly brutal.

Key Points: 
  • But the party’s defeat in Wellingborough in Northamptonshire was particularly brutal.
  • The Tory vote share was a mere 25% and the Conservative to Labour swing of 28.5% was the second biggest in modern electoral history.
  • The loss of Kingswood in South Gloucestershire was on a smaller (16.4%) swing, but is equally ominous for Rishi Sunak.

An unprecedented year of byelections

  • Since 2022, the Conservatives have now lost six byelections to Labour, on an average swing of 21%.
  • Byelections used to be prompted mainly by deaths.
  • Eight of the nine byelections following resignations were lost, as was the recall petition contest and one of the three caused by death.

Looking towards a general election

  • And the results are more a consequence of the Conservative vote dropping – Labour is not piling on the votes.
  • It is a huge leap of faith to assume the stay-at-homes were all Conservative-leaners who will show up at the general election.
  • Nonetheless, Reform winning 13% of the vote in Wellingborough and 10% in Kingswood is an achievement worth noting, if unlikely to be replicated come general election day.
  • No party has ever won an election when trailing its main rival on the economy.

Rochdale embarrassment

  • The party dropped support for its official candidate, Azhar Ali, after leaked audio revealed Ali’s anti-Israel conspiracy theory comments regarding the October 7 Hamas attack.
  • Rochdale is thus high on the embarrassment scale for Labour, but as an issue affecting the outcome of the general election, it is negligible.


Jonathan Tonge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.