ROCHDALE

• But the party’s defeat in Wellingborough in Northamptonshire was particularly brutal.
• The Tory vote share was a mere 25% and the Conservative to Labour swing of 28.5% was the second biggest in modern electoral history.
• The loss of Kingswood in South Gloucestershire was on a smaller (16.4%) swing, but is equally ominous for Rishi Sunak.

An unprecedented year of byelections

• Since 2022, the Conservatives have now lost six byelections to Labour, on an average swing of 21%.
• Byelections used to be prompted mainly by deaths.
• Eight of the nine byelections following resignations were lost, as was the recall petition contest and one of the three caused by death.

Looking towards a general election

• And the results are more a consequence of the Conservative vote dropping – Labour is not piling on the votes.
• It is a huge leap of faith to assume the stay-at-homes were all Conservative-leaners who will show up at the general election.
• Nonetheless, Reform winning 13% of the vote in Wellingborough and 10% in Kingswood is an achievement worth noting, if unlikely to be replicated come general election day.
• No party has ever won an election when trailing its main rival on the economy.

Rochdale embarrassment

• The party dropped support for its official candidate, Azhar Ali, after leaked audio revealed Ali’s anti-Israel conspiracy theory comments regarding the October 7 Hamas attack.
• Rochdale is thus high on the embarrassment scale for Labour, but as an issue affecting the outcome of the general election, it is negligible.

Jonathan Tonge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.