Central Powers

• Turkey has condemned Russia’s invasion and extended diplomatic and material assistance to Ukraine’s war efforts.
• At the same time, the country’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has pointedly opted not to join the Western-led sanctions against Russia or cut ties with Moscow.
• In September 2023, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Turkish companies and a businessman accused of helping Russia to circumvent U.S. sanctions.
• But this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult the longer the war goes on.

The middleman strategy

• Failure to utilize a balancing strategy in the First World War facilitated the empire’s demise.
• In contrast, in World War II, a strategy of neutrality helped Turkey to weather the war unscathed.
• Against mounting Soviet threat during the Cold War, Turkey took refuge under Western security guarantees, joining NATO in 1952.

Splintered support

• But U.S. support to Kurds in northern Syria, aligned to the militant separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party, and the 2016 coup attempt against Erdoğan marked the beginning of a more confrontational relationship between Washington and Ankara.
• Blaming the U.S. and its Persian Gulf allies for complicity in the coup, Erdogan began to court Putin, who openly stood behind him during and after the attempted coup.
• Ankara’s acquisition of Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missiles led to its removal from the U.S.‘s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and a set of U.S. sanctions on Turkey’s defense industry.
• However, the Biden administration hesitated to reset relations due to concerns over Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian rule.

The balancing act and Ukraine

• War in Ukraine offered a new boost to Erdoğan’s balancing act.
• Turkey’s control of two major straits and established ties with Ukraine and other states along the Black Sea provided significant leverage for a multifaceted and neutral approach.
• Erdoğan seemingly hoped that maintaining trade relations with Russia and arms sales to Ukraine would bolster the struggling Turkish economy and rehabilitate his image in the West.
• As the Ukraine conflict continued and Erdoğan’s domestic popularity dipped in the lead-up to the May 2023 elections, the sustainability of Turkey’s balancing act seemed uncertain again.
• They add a new layer of complexity for Erdogan’s balancing act, but also more room for him to maneuver.

Ozgur Ozkan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• HOLMDEL, N.J., Oct. 15, 2021 /PRNewswire/ --Jersey Central Power and Light (JCP&L), a subsidiary of FirstEnergy Corp. (NYSE: FE), has named three new external affairs consultants to serve as liaisons with elected officials and to support local community involvement activities.
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