Should we believe Rishi Sunak's hint that the election will be in October? What the evidence tells us

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After weeks of speculation, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he is “working on the assumption” that a general election will take place in the second half of this year.

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The Conversation

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https://theconversation.com/should-we-believe-rishi-sunaks-hint-that-the-election-will-be-in-october-what-the-evidence-tells-us-220585

Retrieved on:

Vendredi, janvier 5, 2024

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Tags:

Conservatism, Post-war, Time, Weather, Ageing, Student, University, History, Downing Street, Labour

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UK, US

Résumé

Key Points:

After weeks of speculation, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he is “working on the assumption” that a general election will take place in the second half of this year.
That’s just a few months before the latest possible date of January 28 2025.
The choice of an autumn election does make sense for Sunak and the Conservatives.

Why ‘autumn’ means ‘October’

If an election is held in the autumn, October would seem the most likely month if history is anything to go by.
Historically, turnout in October elections has been similar to turnout in spring elections – and turnout is a major factor for the Conservatives.
Age is now the most significant predictor of voting behaviour in UK general elections and age is linked to turnout.
The 18-24 group is most likely to vote Labour but least likely to vote overall so an October vote is again a sound move.

A clash with the US election

An October election would mean the UK vote would take place just weeks ahead of the US election on November 5.
The prospect of two of the world’s leading democracies going to the polls within weeks of each other is an exciting one for election enthusiasts.

Don’t rule out a spring election yet

Following the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the choice of election date lies in the hands of the prime minister.
It would therefore be unwise to rule out a spring election, even after Sunak’s heavy hint.
Sunak’s words do leave the door open for a spring election, as “working assumptions” can easily be changed.

Gemma Loomes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.