Working paper

Dominant currency pricing in international trade of services

Retrieved on:

Donnerstag, April 25, 2024

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Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
We analyze, for the first time, how firms choose the currency in which they price transactions
in international trade of services and investigate, using direct evidence, whether the US dollar
(USD) plays a dominant role in services trade.
JEL: F14, F31, F41
Keywords: dominant currency paradigm, international trade, services.
Related research has
shown that the US dollar (USD) exchange rate is a major source of swings in
global trade in goods?a ?dominant currency pricing? (DCP) phenomenon?since
most goods traded internationally are invoiced and sticky in USD.
Yet it is also key to look at dominant currency pricing in international trade
in services for several reasons.
First, global trade in services is big?accounting for
about a quarter of global gross trade flows and for around 40% in terms of valueadded trade.
Third, and relatedly, the
future of globalisation might be in trade in intermediate services?as progress with
digitech lowers technological barriers to such trade across borders.
But perhaps the main reason is that trade in services is conceptually different
from trade in goods.
Our paper is the first, to our best knowledge, that analyzes how firms choose
the currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and
that examines whether dominant currency pricing differs between trade in goods
and services using direct evidence? hitherto unavailable?on patterns of currency
choices in international transactions in services compared to goods.
Work on dominant currency pricing has
almost exclusively focused on trade in goods.
One reason is that data on patterns
in invoicing currency for trade in services are ?virtually nonexistent? (Adler et al.
Yet it is important to look at dominant currency pricing in international trade
in services for several reasons.
Using the exporter?s (or producer) currency in exports is known in the literature as producer
currency pricing (PCP), while using the importer?s currency is known as local currency pricing (LCP)
and using a third currency is known as vehicle currency pricing (VCP).
Our paper is the first, to our best knowledge, that analyzes how firms choose the
currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and that
examines whether dominant currency pricing differs between international trade in
goods and services using direct evidence ? hitherto unavailable ? on patterns of
currency choices in international transactions in services compared to goods.
First,
we rule out compositional effects, that is that differences in the use of currencies
reflect differences in trade partners in services vs. goods trade.
Both in extra-EU and intra-EU trade, the EUR is the
most widely used currency, be it on the export or import side.
Based
on the framework, we stress which factors should determine currency choices in
international trade, and to what extent one should expect differences between
services trade and goods trade.
Second, it can price in the importer?s currency
(local currency pricing, LCP).4 Third, it can use a third currency, say currency
v (vehicle currency pricing, VCP).
That is,
the currency choice problem is equivalent to determining the currency in which the
desired price is least volatile.
(2022)
provide systematic empirical evidence ? firm size and exposure to foreign currencies
in imported inputs ? should also shape currency choices in services trade.
Dominant currency pricing in USD ? services vs. goods trade
Having established that currency choice in international trade of services is an
active firm-level decision as well as the determinants of this decision, we now
8.
Services and goods exports: prevalence of different pricing strategies (percent)
Notes: The table shows the shares (in value terms) of different pricing strategies: producer currency
pricing (PCP), local currency pricing (LCP) and vehicle currency pricing (VCP).
To make comparisons with goods trade, we rely on Eurostat?s
macro data on international trade in goods by invoivcing currency.
If intra-EU trade is more important in services than
in goods trade, this could hence be an explanation for the lower prevalence of the
USD in services trade.
We showed
that while the USD is also extensively used as a vehicle currency in services trade, its
prevalence is systematically lower than in goods trade.
Hence for all travel services exports
the invoicing currency is the EUR; for travel imports it is the currency of the
destination of travel (i.e.
Also for these
ECB Working Paper Series No 2932

33

services it seems plausible that trade does not take place vis-?-vis all counterparts
in each currency.
Figure B.2: Share of international trade in services in global GDP broken down by type (%)
Notes: Authors? calculations using World Bank and World Trade Organization data.
An earlier version of this paper circulated under the title ?Currency choices and the role of the
U.S. dollar in international services trade?.

Central bank asset purchases and auction cycles revisited: new evidence from the euro area

Retrieved on:

Freitag, April 19, 2024

EADB, Eurozone, Central bank, Exercise, Finance, Selection, Zero lower bound, History, Sale, Empirical evidence, Research Papers in Economics, SDW, Flight-to-liquidity, Money, EONIA, APP, Fleming, Born, AAA, Fiscal, PEPP, Pyrrhic victory, Policy, Research, Breitung, MOSFET, Autocorrelation, Euro, PDF, Classification, ECB, Blog, Dependent and independent variables, Eser, DMO, Impact, PSPP, SMP, Efficacy, AC, QE, Sovereign, Confidentiality, Section 4, MOC, Convention (norm), Data warehouse, Social science, LHS, Control, JEL, Chart, Section 3, Importance, Journal, Bank of France, Role, G14, Government, Capital, The Journal of Finance, Credit, E58, Contagion, Literature, Public sector, DeSantis, Paper, Section 2, European Central Bank, Health, Arnone, Attention, Pressure, NCBS, G12, Journal of Financial Economics, Reproduction, Website, Table, Movement, IMF, RHS, Working paper, Ehrmann, Treasury, Market, Symmetry, Heart, Data, Beck, VIX, Natural experiment, Interval (mathematics), Confidence interval, Medical classification, Security (finance)

Working Paper Series

Key Points:

Working Paper Series
Federico Maria Ferrara
Central bank asset purchases
and auction cycles revisited:
new evidence from the euro area

No 2927

Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank
(ECB).
Abstract
This study provides new evidence on the relationship between unconventional monetary
policy and auction cycles in the euro area.
The findings indicate that Eurosystem?s asset purchase flows mitigate
yield cycles during auction periods and counteract the amplification impact of market volatility.
The dampening effect of central bank asset purchases on auction cycles is more sizeable and
precisely estimated for purchases of securities with medium-term maturities and in jurisdictions
with relatively lower credit ratings.
On the other hand, central banks may influence price dynamics in these markets, most notably
through their asset purchase programmes.
If so, do central bank asset purchases
affect bond yield movements around auction dates?
Auction cycles are present when secondary market yields rise in
anticipation of a debt auction and fall thereafter, generating an inverted V-shaped pattern around auction
dates.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2927
3

1

Introduction

The impact of central bank asset purchases on government bond markets is a focal point of economic and
financial research.
If so,
do central bank asset purchases shape yield sensitivity around auction dates?
The paper provides new evidence on the effects of Eurosystem?s asset purchases on secondary market
yields around public debt auction dates.
The analysis builds on previous research based on aggregate data
on central bank asset purchases and a shorter analysis period (van Spronsen and Beetsma 2022).
Using
granular data on Eurosystem?s asset purchases offers an opportunity to shed light on the mechanisms linking
unconventional monetary policy and auction cycles.
Given this legal constraint, the study
hypothesises that the effect of asset purchases on 10-year auction cycles is mostly indirect, and goes via price
spillovers generated by purchases of securities outside the 10-year maturity space.
Taken together, these results provide new evidence about auction cycles in Europe and contribute to a
larger literature on the flow effects of central bank asset purchases on bond markets.
Section 4 offers descriptive evidence about auction cycles in the euro area.
Auction cycles are defined by the presence of an inverted V-shaped pattern in secondary market yields
around primary auctions.
That is, government bond yields rise in the run-up to the date of the auction and
fall back to their original level after the auction.
Their limited risk-bearing capacities and inventory management operations are
seen as key mechanisms driving auction cycles (Beetsma et al.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2927
7

Second, central bank asset purchases can alleviate the cycle by (partly) absorbing the additional supply
of substitutable instruments in the secondary market (van Spronsen and Beetsma 2022).
This expectation is
supported by several analyses on the price effects of central bank bond purchases (D?Amico and King 2013;
Arrata and Nguyen 2017; De Santis and Holm-Hadulla 2020).
Empirically, previous research has provided evidence of auction cycles taking place across different jurisdictions.
(2016) detect auction cycles for government debt in Italy, but not in Germany, during the European
sovereign debt crisis.
Research on the impact of central bank asset purchases on yield cycles around auctions is still limited.
Their paper provides evidence
that Eurosystem?s asset purchases reduce the presence of auction cycles for euro area government debt.
Nonetheless, several questions remain open about auction cycles and unconventional monetary policy
in the euro area.
Therefore, they
provide only a partial picture of auction cycles and central bank asset purchases in Europe.
The use of granular data on central bank asset purchases is especially important in light of the modalities
of monetary policy implementation of the Eurosystem.
Altogether, these elements motivate further investigation of the relationship between central bank asset
purchases and auction cycles in the euro area.
Taken together, these results confirm that Eurosystem?s asset purchases mitigate yield cycles during auction periods and counteract the amplification impact of market volatility.
The findings confirm that the flow
effects of central bank purchases on yield movements around auction dates are driven by lower-rated countries.
Additional analyses provide evidence for an indirect effect of purchases on auction cycles and highlight
the presence of substantial heterogeneity across jurisdictions and purchase programmes.
Flow Effects of Central Bank Asset Purchases on Sovereign Bond
Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.
Federico Maria Ferrara
European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; email: [email protected]
? European Central Bank, 2024
Postal address 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Telephone
+49 69 1344 0
Website
www.ecb.europa.eu
All rights reserved.

Monetary asmmetries without (and with) price stickiness

Retrieved on:

Freitag, April 19, 2024

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Key Points:

Isabel Schnabel: The future of inflation (forecast) targeting

Retrieved on:

Donnerstag, April 18, 2024

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Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.

Key Points:

Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.
The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers.

A new measure of firm-level competition: an application to euro area banks

Retrieved on:

Donnerstag, April 18, 2024

Glass, RPD, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Goldberg, Employment, Lead, Competition, SCP, Research Papers in Economics, TCF, Intuition, Laboratory, Euromoney, Bank of Canada, Calendar, International political economy, Manufacturing, Oxford Economic Papers, Harvard University Press, Paper, Linearity, R2, Environment, Delicatessen, System, Website, Panzar, Working paper, World Bank, Elzinga, Friends, Madiga, CPB, Investment, Lerner index, Statistics, Croatian National Bank, PDF, Elsevier, ECB, Industrial organization, Policy, Social science, JEL, Operations research, Internet, Journal, Research, Literature, European Central Bank, Journal of Economic Surveys, MRP, Commercial, Section 5, Financial intermediary, Ministry of Social Affairs, Elasticity, National bank, Government, Developed country, Cell, Tarazi, Wealth, Publishing, Springer Nature, Prudential, Marketing, Law, The Economic Journal, Lerner, L16, Business economics, OECD, International Monetary Fund, Section 4, Database, Section 3, Krieger, EMU, Section 2, Pressure, Central bank, Economics Letters, Bank, Jorgenson, Character, Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe, Life, EDS, American Economic Review, K2, Appendix, Applied economics, CEE, Palgrave Macmillan, Livret A, Bell Labs, GDP, Part, Country, Public policy, De Economist, Management, Publication, Motivation, Cooperative, Reproduction, IMF, Edward Elgar Publishing, Housing, Handbook, G21, Real estate

Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
This paper extends Boone (2008) by introducing a competition measure at the individual
firm level rather than for an entire market segment.
We apply this extended Boone indicator to individual bank-level competition
in the loan market in the four largest euro area countries and Austria.
Our new measure of firm-level competition enriches and complements
other competition measures and provides a promising starting point for future market
power analyses.
The only measure among non-structural measures that is based on the
concept of competition as a process of rivalry is the Boone (2008) indicator.
We introduce
a new performance measure of competition by extending the Boone indicator to the
individual firm level.
Introduction
The ability to reliably measure competition is valuable to researchers, analysts, and
policymakers, especially antitrust authorities, financial supervisors, and central banks.
One broad
category of indicators often used to measure competition are structural competition
measures, such as static concentration measures, and dynamic measures, e.g., entry and
exit rates.
Out of these measures, the only measure based on the
concept of competition as a process of rivalry is the Boone indicator.
This study introduces a new performance measure of competition by extending the
Boone indicator to the individual firm level.
It thus measures the
increase in profits in percent of one percentage point increase in efficiency, with marginal
costs as measure of efficiency.
We extend the theoretical
underpinning of the measurement of competition for the entire market of Boone (2008) by
a new measure of individual firm-level competition.
A concern of the literature is the gap
between the practical application and the theoretical framework of Boone (2008).
We introduce within the same theoretical
framework a new measure of competition on firm level, the MRP.
Our new
measure significantly augments the antitrust evaluative framework by shedding light on
whether a merger results in a less competitive market.
Our novel indicator focuses on
firms? incentives to enhance their relative efficiency, as manifested in the elasticity
between relative profits and efficiency.
However, an inefficient firm that is foreclosed could be more
competitive than the larger efficient firm that relies on its scale economies.
Our new metric of competition unveils
banks? ability to influence their profitability in the short term by cutting costs relative to
their peers.
The new MRP indicator provides the ability to assess the impact
of individual banks? competitiveness on their interest rate-setting behaviour in loan
markets.
Incorporating this information promises a more refined understanding of the impact and
timing of monetary policy rates changes on the real economy.
Section 3 introduces within the Boone
(2008) theoretical framework our new measure of individual firm-level competition,
including the interpretation of the MRP.
Section 4 provides an application of our new
ECB Working Paper Series No 2925
6

individual firm-level competition measure to the loan market.
The StructureConduct-Performance paradigm (SCP) provides a traditional framework in the field of
industrial organization for analysing competition behaviour in markets.
Concentrated
markets ease the possibilities to collude implicitly or explicitly and therefore concentrated
markets result in higher prices and profits.
For example, a tougher competition
setup may lead to a reallocation of market shares, potentially forcing some firms to exit
the market.
This approach gives firms? strategic behaviour
central stage and focuses on the strategic interaction on prices and quantities, known as
conjectural variation.
Another measure from
this strand of literature is the H-statistic developed by Panzar and Rosse (1987).
The only competition measure from this performance literature where competition is the
outcome from a process of rivalry is the Boone indicator.
A continuous and monotonically increasing relationship exists between
RPD and the level of competition if firms are ranked by decreasing efficiency.
(2013) compare the Boone indicator with the price-cost margin
and conclude that the profit elasticity is a more reliable measure of competition.
The high
elasticity of profits to efficiency unequivocally indicates that the high market shares and
therefore high profits are due to high efficiency.
A firm that quickly passes changes to the input prices is seen as a price
taker with little market power.
Indicators of competition tend to measure different phenomenon and may provide
conflicting messages, as reported for European banking by Carbo et al.
Application 2: Test the ?quiet life? and related market structure hypotheses using the
MRP as competition or market structure measure.
Data
Our application to individual bank-level competition in the euro area loan market uses
balance sheet and income statement data from the Moody?s Analytics BankFocus for the
calendar years 2013-2020.
As such, most publications
on competition in the euro area includes the largest four member states.
Due to these restrictions the database was reduced to an unbalanced panel of up to 1862
banks (depending on the year) from five euro area countries.
Application 1: Measure bank competition using MRP
Looking at the distribution of the MRP for individual banks (Fig.
A similar finding for the four largest euro area countries as a group is
reported in Carbo et al.
Application 2: Test of market structure hypotheses using MRP
Our new measure of individual-bank competition can be used to test market structure
theories.
Euro area banks? market power,
lending channel and stability: the effects of negative policy rates, European Central Bank
Working Paper, 2790 (February).
A
new approach to measuring competition in the loan markets of the euro area, Applied
Economics, 43 (23), 3155?3167.
Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area, Applied
Economics, 45 (11), 1359?1380.

Transactional demand for central bank digital currency

Retrieved on:

Donnerstag, April 18, 2024

POS, Learning, CB, E41, Calibration, Financial regulation, Interest, ATM, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Journal of Macroeconomics, Sensitivity, Diffusion, ITunes, Bank of Canada, P2P, Safety, NBER, Benchmarking, Prevalence, SPACE, Bernoulli, Journal of Monetary Economics, E42, Paper, European Parliamentary Research Service, Apollo, Environment, Political economy, COVID-19, Review of Economic Dynamics, Abramov, Loss, Working paper, Choice, Collection, Probability, Dowd, Castrén, Face, Noise, History, Restaurant, Journal of Political Economy, ECB, Policy, Diary, Model, Utility, Clutch (eggs), Canadian International Council, Journal of Financial Stability, JEL, Digital, Bias, Journal, Research, Classification, CBDC, SARS-CoV-2, ECMI, Credit, Odds ratio, Literature, European Central Bank, Mises Institute, Monetary economics, Section 5, Occupation, E47, Financial intermediary, Government, Supermarket, Friction, Finance, BIS, Love, Bart, The Economic Journal, Education, Risk, Section 4, Privacy, Section 3, Appetite, App Store (iOS/iPadOS), Human, DNB, International finance, Section 2, Leonhard Euler, Payment, Attention, Central bank, Consumer, EPRS, Habit, American Economic Review, Confidence interval, FCO, Central bank digital currency, Exercise, Letizia, Applied economics, Digital currency, Sale, Business cycle, Amazon, Community business development corporation, Control, Chart, Proxy, American Economic Journal, LN, Bank, Fintech, IMF, Analysis, Aggregation, Cryptocurrency

Key Points:

As interest rates surge: flighty deposits and lending

Retrieved on:

Freitag, April 5, 2024

Neumark, Face, BCBS, Quarterly Journal of Economics, COVID-19, Cash, MRO, Intensive word form, Duration, Disclosure, The, Return, Bank statement, DFR, Research Papers in Economics, Investment, DEP, Federal, Prudential, CEMFI, Core, Synthetic control method, Interest rate risk, Journal of Political Economy, Policy, OLS, Logic, PDF, LOAN, ECB, Risk, International, Shock, Quarterly Journal, ROA, Risk management, Panetta, HHS, T2, T3, E51, Silicon Valley Bank, Common, Social science, NBER, EBA, Propensity score matching, Control, JEL, University Challenge 2013–14, Database, Rigidity, Yb, Social Science Research Network, The Journal of Finance, Bednarek, Journal, Research, Public policy, AT1, Journal of Monetary Economics, PSM, Big data, McPhail, Literature, Medical classification, Federal Reserve, Robustness, Paper, NPL, Financial economics, Deposit account, European Central Bank, Gérard Schivardi, Remuneration, Central bank, Conference, Environment, Political economy, MDA, Equation, Collateral damage, Monetary economics, Monetary policy, Kernel, Hoffmann, Website, Movement, Reproduction, Financial intermediary, Silicon, FE, Working paper, Injection, American Economic Review, Data, G21, AnaCredit, Probability, Total, Lombard, Bank

Key Points:

Isabel Schnabel: R(ising) star?

Retrieved on:

Mittwoch, April 3, 2024

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This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.

Key Points:

This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.
The findings suggest that households have primarily adjusted their consumption spending to cope with higher inflation.

The impact of regulatory changes on rating behaviour

Retrieved on:

Dienstag, April 2, 2024

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Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
We examine rating behaviour after the introduction of new regulations regarding Credit Rating
Agencies (CRAs) in the European securitisation market.
There is empirical evidence of rating catering in the securitisation market in the pre-GFC period (He et al.,
2012; Efing and Hau, 2015).
Competition among
CRAs could diminish ratings quality (Golan, Parlour, and Rajan, 2011) and promotes rating shopping by
issuers resulting in rating inflation (Bolton et al., 2012).
This paper investigates the impact of the post-GFC regulatory changes in the European
securitisation market.
In 2011, in addition to the creation of
European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), a regulatory and supervisory body for CRAs was
introduced.
We examine how rating behaviours have changed in the European securitisation market after the
introduction of these new regulations.
We utilise the existence of multiple ratings and rating agreements between
CRAs to identify the existence of rating shopping and rating catering, respectively (Griffin et al., 2013; He
et al., 2012; 2016).
We find that the regulatory changes have been effective in tackling conflicts of interest between issuers
and CRAs in the structured finance market.
Rating catering, which is a direct consequence of issuer and
CRA collusion, seems to have disappeared after the introduction of these regulations.
There is empirical evidence of rating catering in the securitisation market in
the pre-GFC period (He et al., 2012; Efing and Hau, 2015).
Competition among CRAs could diminish ratings quality (Golan, Parlour,
and Rajan, 2011) and promotes rating shopping by issuers resulting in rating inflation (Bolton et
al., 2012).
This paper investigates the impact of the post-GFC regulatory changes in the European
securitisation market.
In 2011, in addition
to the creation of European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), a regulatory and
supervisory body for CRAs was introduced.
We find that the regulatory changes have been effective in tackling conflicts of interest
between issuers and CRAs in the structured finance market.
Rating catering, which is a direct
consequence of issuer and CRA collusion, seems to have disappeared after the introduction of
these regulations.
Investors who previously demanded higher spreads for rating agreements for a
multiple rated tranche, did not consider the effect of rating harmony as a risk in the post-GFC
period.
Regarding rating shopping, we find that the effectiveness of the changes has been limited,
potentially for two reasons.
Additionally, we also find that rating over-reliance might still be an issue, especially
Rating catering is a broad term and it can involve rating shopping.
They re-examine the rating shopping and rating
catering phenomena in the US market by looking at the post-crisis period between 2009 and 2013.
Using 622 CDO tranches, they also observe the existence of rating shopping and the diminishing
of the rating catering.
Firstly, our main focus is the EU?s CRA Regulation and its effectiveness in reducing
rating inflation and rating over-reliance.
To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to
examine the effectiveness of the EU?s CRA regulatory changes on the investors? perception of
rating inflation in the European ABS market.
Hence, the coverage and quality of our dataset constitutes significant addition
to the literature and allows us to test the rating shopping and rating catering more authoritatively.
The following section reviews the literature
on securitisation concerning CRAs and conflicts of interest, and outlines the regulatory changes
introduced in the post-GFC period.
Firstly, ratings became ever more important as the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) 5 began heavily relying on CRA assessments for regulatory purposes
(i.e.
the investment mandates that highlight rating agencies as the main benchmark for investment
eligibility) (SEC, 2008; Kisgen and Strahan, 2010; Bolton et al., 2012).
issuers) as one of the main explanations for the rating inflation (He et al., 2011; 2012; Bolton
et al., 2012; Efing and Hau, 2015).
Bolton et al., (2012) demonstrate that competition
promotes rating shopping by issuers, leading to rating inflation.
The last phase, CRA III, was implemented in mid-2013 and involves an additional
set of measures on reducing transparency and rating over-reliance.
As mentioned above, rating inflation can be caused by rating shopping
In order to be eligible to use the STS classification, main parties (i.e.
The higher the difference in the number of ratings for a
given ABS tranche, the greater the risk of rating shopping.
Alternatively, the impact of the new
regulations could be limited when it comes to reducing rating shopping.
This is because, firstly,
the conflict of interest between securitisation parties is not necessarily the sole cause for the
occurrence of rating shopping.
L is a set of variables (Multiple ratings, CRA reported, Rating agreement) that
we utilise interchangeably to capture the rating shopping and rating catering behaviour.
Hence, issuers are incentivised to report the highest possible rating and
ensure each additional rating matches the desired level.
All in all, our results suggest that
the new stricter regulatory measures have been effective in tackling conflicts of interest and
reducing rating inflation caused by rating catering.
Self-selection might be a concern in analysing the impact of the
new measures and investors? response with regard to the rating inflation.
This
result is in line with the earlier findings suggesting that regulatory changes have reduced investors?
suspicion of rating inflation and increased trust of CRAs.
Conclusion
Several regulatory changes were introduced in Europe following the GFC aimed at tackling
conflicts of interest between issuers and CRAs in the ABS market.
Utilising a sample of 12,469
ABS issued between 1998 and 2018 in the European market, this paper examined whether these
changes have had any impact on rating inflations caused by rating shopping and rating catering
phenomena.
We find that the
effectiveness of the changes has been more limited on rating shopping potentially for two reasons.
Tranche Credit Rating is the rating reported for a tranche at launch.

Consumer participation in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond

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We find that credit demand is highest when

Key Points:

We find that credit demand is highest when
the first lockdown ends and it drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented.
Credit is more likely to be
accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the approval of national recovery plans.
We also find
that demographic, economic factors, perceptions and expectations are associated with the demand for credit and
the credit grant.
First, it adds to a rapidly growing literature on household
borrowing behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic; see, for example, Ho et al.
We provide evidence that credit applications and credit acceptances display a different pattern over
time.
Credit is more likely to be accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the
approval of national recovery plans.
In almost all countries
households are significantly less likely to apply and to get their credit approved than in Germany.
In line with literature, we show that
demographic and economic factors affect the probability for credit applications and credit approval.
In addition,
the paper shows that consumer perceptions and expectations matter when they decide to apply for credit.
Introduction
The participation of households in the credit market receives wide attention in the consumer finance literature
because consumer credit enters the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the so-called ?credit
channel?: changes in credit demand and supply have an effect on consumers' spending and investment, which in
turn affect economic growth.
We use microdata from the ECB?s Consumer Expectations Survey (hereinafter CES), a survey that
measures consumer expectations and behaviour in the euro area.
Its panel dimension allows for an assessment of
how consumer behaviour changes over time and how consumers respond to critical economic shocks.
This way we can gauge how credit applications and credit acceptances change under different, almost
opposite, borrowing conditions.
We also distinguish between the demand for long-term secured loans (mortgages) and for short-term
uncollateralized loans (consumer loans).
ECB Working Paper Series No 2922
3

We use probit models to estimate the probability of the consumer to apply for credit and the credit being granted.
The rate peaks in 2020Q3 which reflects the rebound in the demand for loans when the first lockdown ended.
In almost all countries households are significantly less likely
to apply and to get their credit approved than in Germany.
However,
when it comes to credit acceptance, we observe that the two groups of households are more similar.
Finally, we find some heterogeneity with respect to the type of credit, particularly between secured and unsecured
debt.
The demand for
consumer credit is insignificant for liquid households and decreases significantly for constrained households in
the last two quarters of our timespan.
The first consists of a recently growing literature which
explores consumer behaviour in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly in the United States.
Sandler and Ricks (2020) show that consumers did not use credit card debt for financial liquidity in the early stage
of the COVID-19 pandemic.
(2020) report that credit card applications and new mortgage loans
declined during the first months of the pandemic in regions with more unemployment insurance claims.
Lu and
Van der Klaauw (2021) show that there was a sharp drop in consumer credit demand, especially for credit cards.
(2022) document that there was a substantial decrease in the usage of credit cards and home equity lines
of credit by Canadian consumers.
Our paper is also consonant with studies on the association between financial and demographic factors and
consumers? participation in the credit market as well as on the demand for specific types of credit.
January 2020 ? October 2020 - The two main events are the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the
consequential lockdowns in the euro area.
4 If the
respondent has applied for more than one type of credit, she is asked to refer to the most recent credit application.
Between 2021Q3 and 2022Q3 the acceptance
rate stays above the average values, mirroring the easing of credit standards for consumer credit and other lending
to households during this period.
Second, we can investigate the presence of nonlinearities in how liquidity and the credit type interact in explaining credit applications.
(2023) ? who show that in the United States the local pandemic severity had a strong
negative effect on credit card spending early in the pandemic, which diminished over time.
First, we select mortgages and consumer credit as the two mostly reported categories for secured and
13

The full estimation results are reported in Table 3.
The right-hand side panel of Figure 6 shows that the demand for consumer credit is insignificant for both liquid
and illiquid households.
It also shows that
subjective perceptions of credit access, financial concerns and expectations on interest rates matter for the demand
for credit.
In Bertola, G., Disney
R., and Grant, C. (eds) The Economics of Consumer Credit, Cambridge MA, MIT Press.
Horvath, A., Kay, B. and Wix, C. (2023) The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card
data.
Magri, S. (2007) Italian households? debt: The participation to the debt market and the size of the loan.