Volodymyr Zelenskyy

House of Representatives holds off on Ukraine aid package − here’s why the US has a lot at stake in supporting Ukraine

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星期三, 四月 10, 2024

The U.S. has been the largest single donor backing Ukraine since Russian troops invaded the country in February 2022.

Key Points:

The U.S. has been the largest single donor backing Ukraine since Russian troops invaded the country in February 2022.
Biden has asked Congress to approve another $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and other allies.
While the Senate passed this foreign aid bill in February 2024, it is stalled in the House of Representatives.
It is not entirely clear when and how the House will vote on Ukraine.
Still, as a scholar of Eastern Europe, I think there are a few important reasons why the U.S. is unlikely to cut funding to Ukraine.

Republicans are divided over Ukraine aid

Johnson is facing pressure to delay voting on the Ukraine foreign aid bill for a few reasons.
One major factor is fighting between Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the House.
While some centrist Republican politicians support Ukraine funding and are pushing for a vote on the foreign aid package, others – hard-right Republicans – want a bill that prioritizes what they say are American interests, meaning more of a focus on domestic U.S. problems.

Delays on Ukraine benefit Putin

As the House continues to stall on a vote, Ukraine is rationing ammunition and supplies.
Delays with foreign aid to Ukraine give Putin time to move forward with plans to purchase ballistic missiles from Iran.
Without foreign aid from the U.S., Ukraine will face a strategic disadvantage that could lead to Russia winning the war.

The US needs Europe to compete with China

One factor is U.S. global power competition with China.
Russian and Chinese leaders declared a military and political partnership days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
They announced on April 9, 2024, that they want to find ways to strengthen their joint security work across Asia and Europe.
U.S. political and military leaders have noted that supporting Ukraine and pushing back against Russia is one clear way to deter China from strengthening its global political power and military reach.
The U.S. needs its long-standing allies in Europe to help push back against China – and deterrence is only as effective as the size of the force doing the deterring.

Foreign aid benefits US arms industry

Most of America’s military aid to Ukraine consists of arms and ammunition from existing U.S. stockpiles.
If Congress approves an additional $60 billion for Ukraine, more than half of this money would go to U.S. factories that manufacture missiles and munitions.
In December 2023, Biden signed a U.S. defense policy bill that authorizes a record-high $886 billion in spending from July 2023 through June 2024.
But it also allows for the purchasing of new ships, aircraft and other types of ammunition.

Americans continue to support Ukraine aid

A majority of Americans still favor U.S. support of Ukraine, though about half of Republicans said in December 2023 that the U.S. is giving too much money to the country. Even though politicians do not always follow public opinion, there are clear reasons why it is not in the U.S.’s best interests to cut funding to Ukraine.
Tatsiana Kulakevich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Ukraine war: why many Nato countries are thinking of introducing conscription and the issues that involves

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星期二, 四月 9, 2024

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While hundreds of thousands of British men did, indeed, volunteer to serve in the first flush of jingoistic patriotism in 1914, the manpower well soon began to run dry.

Key Points:

While hundreds of thousands of British men did, indeed, volunteer to serve in the first flush of jingoistic patriotism in 1914, the manpower well soon began to run dry.
Despite this, however, some form of conscription does still exist today in most European countries.
But as the implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine come to be better understood, introducing or extending conscription is increasingly being discussed in European Nato states.

But, over the past few months, political leaders in both countries have been discussing the reintroduction of forms of conscription or national service.
In other countries in Europe, there has traditionally been a type of “conscription-lite” in operation.
Sweden, which joined Nato in March, had dropped conscription in 2010 but reintroduced it in 2018 as the country prepared to join Nato.
Finland, the other Nordic country that has recently joined Nato, could hardly expand its conscription net any further.

Conscription extended in Ukraine

The country already has conscription for 18-26 year-olds but only those above 27 were actually asked to serve in combat roles (although many volunteers under 27 did as well).
To replace those lost in the war and to maintain the ability to rotate troops in and out of the front lines, Ukraine needs a larger pool of military manpower.
But casting the manpower net wider is a toxic issue in Ukraine, and as ever, such conscription is not popular.
Accordingly, government spokespersons moved quickly to quash any notions that conscription was on any agenda.

Rod Thornton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Domestic and international developments risk undermining Ukraine in a critical year

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星期四, 二月 15, 2024

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International attention, partially diverted by the war in Gaza, appears to be waning.

Key Points:

International attention, partially diverted by the war in Gaza, appears to be waning.
Furthermore, domestic politics within Ukraine are threatening to undermine its war aims.

Russian morale

First, the Russian economy, while on a war footing, is not as strong as it appears.
The growth in the Russian economy shocked most analysts, but it was primarily due to armament production.
The precise effect of these casualties on Russian morale is debatable.
The Russian army has been relying on non-Russian minorities to fight the war, a policy that appears to be an effort to maintain Putin’s popularity among Russian nationalists.

The need for smarter aid

International aid was substantial early on as several states rushed to support Ukraine.
This aid provided both material necessities and a significant morale boost.
In the long term, however, the aid has proven problematic.

Justifying the expense of sending aid

In some ways, it actually proves detrimental, as it causes soldiers to turn away from areas and techniques that led to success.
The ongoing debates in the United States congress over providing aid to Ukraine partly reflect this issue.
Rather, it’s important to acknowledge the limitations of the aid provided so far to Ukraine.
Its importance is such that it’s influencing Ukrainian domestic politics, as Zaluzhnyi’s critical assessments on Ukraine’s needs finally provoked President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into action.

Domestic shakeups

This included replacing the popular Zaluzhnyi with Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, who previously served as commander of the Ukrainian ground forces.
Replacing Zaluzhnyi at such a critical juncture in the war signals to Ukraine’s allies that the war isn’t going well.
The question now is if the unity of message was worth losing a valuable wartime general.

James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Ukraine recap: Zelensky's defiant new year speech foreshadows tough 2024 as government tightens conscription laws

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星期四, 一月 4, 2024

Ukraine advances, Ukraine overcomes the path.

Key Points:

Ukraine advances, Ukraine overcomes the path.
He said: “Ukrainians will cope with any energy shortage as they have no shortage of resilience and courage.
We defeated the darkness.” He took time to thank the Ukrainian people, talking up the country’s unity in the face of existential threat.
A refugee or a citizen?” The cold hard fact is that 2023 ended badly on the battlefield for Ukraine.
As late as the beginning of December Russia announced it was calling up another 170,000 troops.

In the meantime, a raft of new economic measures will increase the tax burden on ordinary Ukrainians, while at the same time radically reducing public spending.
Read more:
Ukraine war increasingly seen as 'fought by the poor’, as Zelensky raises taxes and proposes strict mobilisation laws

You can also subscribe to our fortnightly recap of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.
James Horncastle, of Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, meanwhile, believes that while Ukraine has suffered setbacks over the past six months or so, it can still prevail.
And then works out exactly what it will take in terms of western military aid to achieve that initial goal.

Do they know it’s Christmas?

Accordingly Ukrainians celebrated Easter and other important religious festivals and saints days at different times as well.
But in May 2023, the Ukrainian government took the decision to adopt the revised Julian – what we know as the Gregorian – calendar.
As Hann reports, the old religious calendar survived the Soviet era, but has now been swept away by decree from Kyiv.

Ukraine war increasingly seen as 'fought by the poor’, as Zelensky raises taxes and proposes strict mobilisation laws

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星期四, 一月 4, 2024

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The demand late last year by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for the mobilisation of an additional 500,000 troops over the next few months signals both resolve and desperation.

Key Points:

The demand late last year by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for the mobilisation of an additional 500,000 troops over the next few months signals both resolve and desperation.
It will likely make Ukrainian domestic politics more fractious but it could also buy Zelensky time to reconsider his own endgame and how to get there.
Against this background, the target of an additional half a million troops constitutes a significant increase of 50% above the current baseline.
Russia’s recent mobilisation of 170,000 new troops brings the total strength of its armed forces to around 1.3 million.

Running out of men to mobilise?

So the government proposes coercive measures to ensure continuing enlistment.
The latter group in particular, including an estimated 600,000 fighting-age men living in the EU, will become a key target of Kyiv’s mobilisation efforts.

Deepening social divisions

But taken together, these actions by the government have revived potentially divisive discussions in Ukrainian society about social justice, corruption and the social contract between elites and society.
Life expectancy of men has reduced from an already low 65 years in 2021 to 57 years in 2023.
Forced mobilisation, the reduction of the rights and freedoms of the population, further economic disruption and social hardship contrast sharply with what is widely perceived as the corruption-fuelled lifestyle of an entrenched and unaccountable elite.
Thus, Ukraine needs a new social contract between elites and society as much as it needs a re-assessment of its military strategy.

He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.
Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Ukraine recap: with winter closing in Zelensky resists calls to negotiate – but Gaza war adds to pressure

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星期四, 十一月 9, 2023

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has ground on, day by day, metre by metre.

Key Points:

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has ground on, day by day, metre by metre.
Reports from the frontline are that Russia has committed significant forces to the offensive, and suffered heavy losses.
In the south, the progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive remains slow, according to Ukraine president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who was speaking at Reuters NEXT conference this week.
Read more:
Ukraine war: stalemate on the battlefield and shaky international support putting pressure on Zelensky

You can also subscribe to our fortnightly recap of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.
This of course, won’t play well with Ukraine’s western donors who want to see concrete evidence of successes on the battlefield.

But Russian troops, she writes, also know a great deal about fighting in winter conditions.
Read more:
Ukraine and Russia claim to be prepared for extremes of winter warfare – here's what they face

Weaponising grain

Since Russia pulled out of the grain deal in July it has said it regards all shipping moving in and out of Ukrainian ports as legitimate targets.
This poses a major threat to Ukrainian grain exports and global food security as winter approaches.

Cold war getting warmer

Tensions ratcheted up this week when Russia announced it was pulling out of an important cold war-era treaty which placed verifiable limits on certain types of military equipment that either side could deploy, such as tanks, aircraft and artillery pieces.
Read more:
Russia's decision to ditch cold war arms limitation treaty raises tensions with Nato

The diplomatic front

The fact is that Moscow has warm relations with all parties to the conflict in Gaza, certainly more so than Washington, which proscribes Hamas as a terrorist organisation.
She also notes that Hamas officials have visited Moscow three times since the war in Ukraine.
Russia, she says, is probably the only country Hamas would trust to broker some sort of a peace deal.

Deepfakes in warfare: new concerns emerge from their use around the Russian invasion of Ukraine

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星期五, 十月 27, 2023

While the resemblance was there, the face seemed slightly out of sync with the head of the Ukrainian president.

Key Points:

While the resemblance was there, the face seemed slightly out of sync with the head of the Ukrainian president.
In the video, Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the war was over, a fact that the majority of Ukrainian people knew was false.
While this was happening online, the ticker at the bottom of the screen on the channel’s live television feed read the same message.
Commentators and academics have pointed out that fake videos can be made much more easily and quickly using deepfake technology than with previous methods.

Loss of trust

We also found evidence of people losing faith in all videos from the conflict, with some people endorsing theories that world leaders were dead and had been replaced by deepfakes.
Of the many examples of deepfakes used online during the Russo-Ukrainian war, the example of Zelensky claiming that the war was over was perhaps the most frightening.
This is because it highlighted how deepfakes could be used, along with hacked media services, to spread messages that were counterfactual.

Humour, confusion and scepticism

There were also deepfake (and CGI) videos made by the Ukrainian government to educate people on the conflict.
Interestingly, demonstrating the ability of Ukraine to create false videos, even though they were educational, might have been counterproductive.
Much of the discussion of deepfakes online involved healthy scepticism, such as advice for fact checking and detecting deepfakes.

Learning the lessons

What lessons can the average social media user take away from this research?
The prevalence of deepfake videos online has increased over the last five years and the technological detection of deepfake videos is not currently accurate enough to be a solution in itself.

John Joseph Twomey receives funding from LERO/SFI Ireland. Conor Linehan receives funding from Science Foundation Ireland, the Irish Research Council, and Google. He is affiliated with Lero, the Irish centre for software research. Gillian Murphy receives funding from Science Foundation Ireland, the Irish Research Council, and Google. She is affiliated with Lero, the Irish centre for software research.

Ukraine war: Putin avoids further mobilisation while Kyiv suffers manpower shortage

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星期四, 九月 28, 2023

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In response to Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive which recaptured swaths of territory from Russia, Putin called up around 300,000 men – around 1% of the eligible pool of reservists.

Key Points:

In response to Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive which recaptured swaths of territory from Russia, Putin called up around 300,000 men – around 1% of the eligible pool of reservists.
This is partly a misinformation campaign launched by Kyiv to sow dissent in Russia.
Again in September 2023, Ukrainian sources claimed a new mobilisation was planned for the day after the Russian regional elections on September 10.
And, in fact, it’s Ukraine that is under pressure to conscript enough troops as its counteroffensive struggles for momentum.

Changing moods

In fact, the opposite is true and realists are now talking down the prospect of a Ukrainian breakthrough any time soon.
But this gloomy mood quickly dissipated when footage of burning Ukrainian Leopard tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles appeared in early June.

It’s a long war

While some may be those who’ve already signed up, more are joining – as confirmed by Ukrainian intelligence.
But if it’s a long war of attrition, as seems likely, maintaining normality is actually a strength.
Russia is ramping up its war production and its army is also gaining the practical experience of war that it clearly lacked in the early stages.

Strain on Ukraine

This summer arguably saw a strategic defeat for Ukraine and Nato in their attempt to end the war by military means.
Nato countries supplied and trained Ukraine as best they could.
To get another chance, Ukraine will have to mobilise even more troops and get more advanced weapons in greater quantities than ever before.
Yet, for all the talk of Russia’s mobilisation, it is Ukraine that seems to be suffering from manpower shortages.

Ukraine war: mixed signals among Kyiv's allies hint at growing conflict fatigue

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星期一, 九月 25, 2023

But it has also tested those in the west that have supported Ukraine from the start.

Key Points:

But it has also tested those in the west that have supported Ukraine from the start.
This much was evident from the mixed reception Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, received last week when he visited the US and Canada.
There are two camps: many western leaders following Ukraine’s line that the country’s territorial integrity needs to be restored first.
Moving up to Canada, Zelensky received a universally warm reception and left with a military aid package worth C$650 million (£394 million).

Europe: growing division

Poland then went one step further and also put a – temporary – halt on any weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
This was decried by Zelensky in his speech before the UN general assembly as “political theatre” and a gift for Moscow.
The grain dispute between Poland and Ukraine has been simmering for some time, and it was a question of when, not if, it would ultimately escalate.
It comes in the wake of growing western unease about the course and cost of the war.
But Ukraine’s recent successes are almost certainly not enough to dispel the growing sense that the war is becoming a lasting stalemate.

Will Ukraine be able to win over the Global South in its fight against Russian aggression?

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星期四, 七月 27, 2023

By accident, I was leaving in a bus that a nearby international school was using to evacuate its students and staff.

Key Points:

By accident, I was leaving in a bus that a nearby international school was using to evacuate its students and staff.
When the war broke out, Ukraine was hosting tens of thousands of students from the Global South and was generally viewed as a partner in many countries.

Differences of opinion

As Ukrainians, we see our country as a bastion of democratic values and oppose the totalitarianism taking root in Russia.
But it is clear there is not much solidarity with Ukraine’s goal of decisively ending Russia’s colonial influence in the former Soviet republic.
These messages are helping to drive public opinion.
Smaller players would retain agency, preserve their political autonomy, and perhaps leverage great power rivalry to their advantage.

Why does so much of the Global South support Russia?

To be clear, attitudes toward the devastating war vary considerably across the Global South – the region is no monolith of public opinion.
Many countries of the Global South have a deep-seated “non-aligned” tradition dating back to the Cold War.
The war in Ukraine has also widened the gap between the Global North and South and exposed their different priorities.
The private military contractor Wagner is operating across the continent, and the Russian and Chinese militaries recently held joint exercises with South Africa.

Is the war of words lost?

Ukraine is now working on opening more embassies and appointing ambassadors across Africa.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also identified the Global South as a priority in international relations.
For instance, his foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, embarked this week on his third tour of African countries.
But will this be enough to persuade the Global South to do more to support Ukraine in the war?