Could the Ukraine dam attack pose risks to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant? Experts explain

• Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) want access to a location near Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
• The IAEA is due to visit Ukraine and the Zaporizhzhia plant in the next week.
• The attack on the Nova Kakhovka dam in a Russian-occupied part of Ukraine unleashed flooding that devastated an area of about 600km², roughly the size of the city of Chicago.
• The attack, which is being blamed by many western analysts on Russia, happened a week before a scheduled visit of IAEA inspectors to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
• According to the IAEA, Zaporizhzhia – which is Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – now relies entirely on its sole remaining 750kv power line for off-site electricity.

Escalation logic

• The Russian army appears to be the benefactor in the short term as it scrambles to slow down Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
• This creates new levels of ambiguity in the war’s escalation logic.
• Escalation logic refers to the strategic decisions and actions taken to intensify a conflict, aiming to gain an advantage or deter the opponent.

Russian steps

• Russia’s war against Ukraine has followed a series of escalating steps.
• After the initial invasion, when the Russian offensive stalled in the summer of 2022, the Russian military chose to use cruelty against Ukrainian civilians.
• This escalation, however, negatively affected Russia’s economy and outlook as well, since the immediate and long-term forecasts do not look promising.