EBA launches 2021 EU-wide stress test exercise
29 January 2021 The European Banking Authority (EBA) launched today the 2021 EU-wide stress test and released the macroeconomic scenarios.
29 January 2021
- The European Banking Authority (EBA) launched today the 2021 EU-wide stress test and released the macroeconomic scenarios.
- Following the postponement of the 2020 exercise, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this years EU-wide stress test will provide valuable input for assessing the resilience of the European banking sector.
- The EBA expects to publish the results of the exercise by 31 July 2021.
Key features of the exercise
- The exercise assesses the impact of an adverse macroeconomic scenario on the solvency of EU banks.
- The stress test allows supervisors to assess if banks capital buffers, which have been accumulated in recent years, are sufficient to cover losses and support the economy in stressed times.
- Moreover, the exercise fosters market discipline through the publication of consistent and granular data at a bank-by-bank level, which is crucial particularly at times of increased uncertainty in the markets.
- The results of the exercise are an input to the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP).
Key elements of the scenarios
- The adverse scenario also reflects recent risk assessments by the EBA.
- A decline in economic growth and rising risk premia could further challenge debt sustainability in the public and private sectors across the EU.
- The adverse scenario is designed to ensure an adequate level of severity across all EU countries.
- Equity prices in global financial markets would fall by 50% in advanced economies and by 65% in emerging economies in the first year.
- The 2021 adverse scenario is very severe having in mind the weaker macroeconomic starting point in 2020 as a result of the severe pandemic-induced recession.
Notes for editors
- [1] The convention used in the calibration of adverse scenarios for EBA stress tests is one of no policy change.
- This means that neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy reactions are assumed under the adverse scenario over and above what is already embedded in the baseline scenario.