Transition

• Similarly, Tehran’s arms shipments to Russia are well known and have prompted complaints and sanctions from the West.
• But Tehran has received little coverage of its military intervention in another deadly conflict: Sudan’s civil war.
• It follows a similar trajectory as Iran’s involvement in Ethiopia during the Tigray war of 2020-22.

Projecting power

• Iran has done this to project power, strengthen alliances and influence conflicts in the Middle East and other regions.
• At the same time, it can prove a lucrative source of income for the Iranian economy, as well as a showcase for the country’s technology.
• In regards to Sudan, arming the SAF helps both Iran’s wider geopolitical goals and its competition with regional rivals, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel.

Rogue states

• It exported tractors there and stationed naval vessels at Sudanese ports in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
• As a fellow so-called rogue state subjected to U.S. sanctions and embargoes, Sudan provided diplomatic support to Tehran throughout the period.
• These setbacks resulted from Iran disengaging from Sudan and Africa to concentrate on nuclear diplomacy with the United States and other world powers.
• They also coincided with growing military, diplomatic and economic assistance from Saudi Arabia and the UAE to Sudan and other states in the Horn of Africa in exchange for joining the Saudi-led coalition against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

Making inroads in the Horn

• Tehran aspires to assist al-Burhan and the SAF win the war and take back control of the state.
• Giving assistance to the SAF also fits a dynamic that predates the war and again relates to Iran’s battle for influence with Saudi Arabia.
• Outside the military realm, the UAE has a sizable economic edge over Iran as Sudan’s largest export partner and second largest import partner.

Fueling conflict