Why two largely white and tiny states still matter so much to the US presidential election

• With his closest rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley lagging far behind, it seems the Republican primary contest is over before it has even begun.
• Since the 1970s, Iowa has kicked off the US presidential election year with the first caucuses of the primary season.
• This changed for Democrats following the 2020 election, when the party ditched the first-in-the-nation caucuses for a mail-in vote.

How Iowa was put on the map

• At first, few noticed or cared about the Iowa caucuses’ early position.
• Little-known presidential hopeful Jimmy Carter led a grassroots campaign in Iowa — and the next-in-line New Hampshire primary — to deliver unexpected early victories in the Democratic nominating contest.
• Once he put the Iowa caucuses on the map, the state sought to ensure they remained there.

An unrepresentative state

• Iowa might be a big electoral prize, but the Mid-Western state itself is tiny and hardly representative of America as a whole.
• Iowa is more rural than the national average and among the country’s least diverse states.
• Many rightly point out that Iowa’s demographics more closely resemble the 19th-century United States than the America we know today.

As Iowa and New Hampshire go, so goes the nation (sometimes)

• In the ten contested Democratic Iowa caucuses since 1976, the winner has gone on to secure the Democratic nomination in seven instances.
• The most notable exception in recent times was Biden, who finished fourth in Iowa in 2020.
• Of these seven successful nominees, just two — Carter and Barack Obama — would go on to become president.
• Almost every major party nominee since 1972 has, however, won in either Iowa or New Hampshire.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.