Breakthrough in Foldable Phone Penetration Rate Begins in 2021; Flexible AMOLED Panels are Key, Says TrendForce
WitsView , a division of TrendForce , holds that foldable phones are still in the stages of market-response observation and product-design adjustment, and predicts for them a meager smartphone market penetration rate of 0.1% in 2019.
As smartphone markets become saturated, suppliers look to foldable
phones as a potential demand-stimulating design. Samsung and Huawei,
etc., have put several concept phones on display in MWC 2019. WitsView,
a division of TrendForce,
holds that foldable phones are still in the stages of market-response
observation and product-design adjustment, and predicts for them a
meager smartphone market penetration rate of 0.1% in 2019. Foldable
phones penetration rates will have to wait until more panel providers
join the game and panel costs see significant improvements for a chance
to rise above 1% in 2021, and accelerate past 3.4% in 2022.
WitsView’s Research Director, Boyce
Fan, points out that the most significant design difference between
Samsung and Huawei lies in the inward/outward folding choice. Samsung
adopted a dual-screen design with an outer screen and an inward-folding
screen; Huawei, on the other hand, adopted a single, outward-folding
screen design. Overall, the inward/outward designs each have their own
advantages, but they are still far from ideal. WitsView considers the
outward-folding design as more intuitive, since it reduces the need for
an additional screen, yet retains interchangeability between both phone
and tablet modes.
The main problem with outward-folding phones lie with the plastic base
material currently used for its protective cover, which raises concerns
over durability and scratch-resistance. This may also be why Samsung
chose an inward design over an outer one. Inward designs, however, are
far more demanding technologically due to the small bending radius at
the folding point; much effort must be made when adjusting processes and
selecting materials. Samsung has filed a considerable number of patents
on this area, which goes to show that Samsung possesses a certain degree
of technological superiority in inward designs.
On the other hand, it remains for time to tell whether protective covers
will embrace ultra-thin glass materials once more. Apart from the
developments in material specifications, it is also worth observing in
smartphone markets whether consumers, who have gotten used to the feel
and look of glass protective covers, are willing to accept phones
covered in plastic.
China’s Flexible AMOLED Production Capacity to Catch Up with Korean
Suppliers After 2020
Looking at the supply side, there aren’t that many suppliers able to
provide a steady flow of foldable panels. Samsung relies on its own
panels and isn’t worried about supply shortage; Huawei, on the other
hand, is dependent on China’s panel manufacturers, but the scale may
still be limited by current technology and yield rate. Other smartphone
brands suffer from a lack of stable panel supply, which may prove to be
the bigger bottleneck in the early stages of foldable-phone developments.
WitsView observes that China’s panel manufacturers are still only in the
initial stages of flexible AMOLED panel development and possess limited
actual supply potential—their current production capacity only make up
about 27% worldwide, with Korean manufacturers gaining the absolute
upper hand short-term. China’s panel manufacturers will, however, allow
its newfound flexible AMOLED production capacity to contribute to
production in the coming 2~3 years; they will catch up with Korean panel
manufacturers in flexible AMOLED production capacity after 2020. After
supply rises and competition increases, panel prices may finally have a
chance to drop. Moreover, China’s smartphone brands reach a wide
audience in the global market, and have a great potential need for
AMOLED panels and foldable phones—both factors will prove somewhat
beneficial in digesting the production capacity of China’s panel
manufacturers in the future.
WitsView points out that in these current early stages of foldable phone
development, penetration rate growth will not only be directly affected
by high prices, but also be limited in large part due to uncertainty of
the added value foldable phones may provide consumers with. Thus, it
remains to be seen how suppliers will convince consumers and stimulate
sales by software and UI optimization and integrating the unique nature
of foldable phones. The high transmission speeds and low latency that 5G
boasts and the size-adjustability of foldable phones may furthermore
boost user experience with these devices. It is predicted that as 5G
gradually finds widespread use starting from 2021, foldable phones will
fall into place production capacity- and technology-wise to ride the
revolutionary wave and begin their ascent in market penetration rates.
For further details of the press release, please visit:
https://press.trendforce.com/press/20190307-3218.html
Find out more in TrendForce’s Smartphone Market Decode Report to
gain insights into trends in the global smartphone industry and how
phone makers initiate breakthrough in specs:
About TrendForce (www.trendforce.com)
TrendForce is a global provider of market intelligence on the technology
industries. Having served businesses for over a decade, the company has
built up a strong membership base of 500,000 subscribers residing the
technology and financial services sectors. TrendForce has established a
reputation as an organization that offers insightful and accurate
analysis of the technology industry through five major research
divisions: DRAMeXchange, WitsView, LEDinside, EnergyTrend and Topology
Research Institute. Founded in Taipei, Taiwan in 2000, TrendForce has
extended its presence in China since 2004 with offices in Shenzhen and
Beijing.
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