Imre Nagy

Ukraine recap: downbeat US intelligence leak suggests no end in sight for the misery of this war

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토요일, 4월 15, 2023
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As you’d expect, among the main areas of discussion is the likelihood of a Ukrainian spring counter-offensive being launched sometime soon.

Key Points: 
  • As you’d expect, among the main areas of discussion is the likelihood of a Ukrainian spring counter-offensive being launched sometime soon.
  • You can also subscribe to our fortnightly recap of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.
  • Since neither side is backing down from its preferred outcomes from the conflict, it looks set to be a long war.
  • According to the Ukrainian government, 19,384 children have been deported to Russia since the start of the war.
  • Compounding the problem of identifying the stolen children was the fact that the regime had murdered many of their parents.

Geopolitics

    • It was difficult not to appreciate the irony of Finland’s decision to join Nato on April 4.
    • But the addition of Finland as Nato’s 31st member effectively doubles the alliance’s land border with Russia.
    • Finland’s accession also adds a country with an already robust defence policy and a well-funded military to the alliance.
    • It’s hard not to see its decision to join as something of an own goal for Putin.

Narratives (and the fate of those who tell them)

Ukraine war: the devastating effects of conflict on infant mortality rates – new research

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수요일, 4월 12, 2023
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On March 16 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced it had recorded 859 attacks on healthcare facilities in Ukraine.

Key Points: 
  • On March 16 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced it had recorded 859 attacks on healthcare facilities in Ukraine.
  • Russian attacks on civilians and the most vulnerable targets, including maternity hospitals, have been a feature of the conflict from its beginning.
  • In research published in The Journal of Human Rights, I presented evidence that tends to corroborate Tedros’s statement.

Collateral deaths

    • As well as deaths due to the actual fighting, there are many other causes of death during a war.
    • These include increased exposure to disease, food shortages, and civilians’ lack of access to medicines and medical care.
    • Attacks on healthcare facilities and infrastructure place greater demands on governments that are having to switch funding from healthcare provision to defence.
    • I found that civil wars are associated with an average increase in the infant mortality rate of 5.2% the following year.

It doesn’t end with ceasefire

    • The country gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and was almost immediately embroiled in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict against Armenia, which lasted until 1994.
    • By May 1994, when the signing of the Bishkek Protocol brought a (temporary) end to hostilities, the IMR had increased to 75.3 per 1,000.
    • I made the same comparison involving countries that had spent their whole time as independent states involved in civil war.
    • These war-torn societies, on average, experienced an 11.5% increase in their IMRs (from 62.5 to 69.7).
    • By the last year of the major civil war in 1994, the rate had jumped to 200.3 deaths per 1,000 live births, a 22.6% increase.

War crimes

    • But the terrible consequences of all war for people – not least, the infants that have been the subject of my research – should remind all those involved in conflict that they must adhere to the Geneva Conventions, or face the consequences of committing war crimes.
    • It’s hard to imagine war crimes more heinous than those committed against infant children who have not yet reached their first birthday.