Rigid transformation

Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: evidence from Germany

Retrieved on:

火曜日, 4月 23, 2024

Consensus, Online, Cream, Honey, Tax, Glass, MAPI, Consensus Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Milk, Shower, Low-alcohol beer, Autoregressive–moving-average model, Infant, C3, Islam, Wine, Core inflation, Research Papers in Economics, National accounts, Kálmán, Barcode, Journal of International Economics, Communication, Royal Statistical Society, COVID19, Kohl (cosmetics), Natural disaster, Business, Observation, Paper, VAT, European Economic Review, Diebold Nixdorf, Blancmange, Calendar, Sunflower oil, Annual Review of Economics, Hand, C4, DESTATIS, NBER, Tinning, Razor, Forecasting, Gasoline, Coffee, European Economic Association, Cat, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Medeiros, Architecture, Oxford University Press, Producer, GfK, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Margarine, NCBS, Starch, Political economy, Consistency, COVID-19, Consensus decision-making, Website, MIDAS, Behavior, Deutsche Bundesbank, PPI, World Bank, Collection, Medical classification, Orange, Eurozone, Butter, FMCG, Noise, Travel, Clothing, History, Inflation, Liver, International economics, Journal of Political Economy, BSI, OLS, Statistics, Consumer, PDF, University of Chicago, Classification, ECB, Fats, Policy, Multi, WOB, Outline, C6, Mincing, Canadian International Council, Social science, Perfume, University of California, Berkeley, Journal of Forecasting, Federal Reserve Bank, JEL, L1, Journal, Research, Candle, Food, TPD, Credit, Spice, LPG, Janssen, Marmalade, Superior, Literature, Chocolate, Beef, Kiel University, European Central Bank, Natural gas, HICP, Monetary economics, Yogurt, Section 5, ILO, Bermingham, Price, GTIN, Cheese, Macroeconomics, Growth, Beck, XJ, Government, De Beer, Supermarket, Ice cream, Naturally, C53, Corn flakes, BIS, Biscuit, LASSO, Petroleum, A.2, Poultry, Accuracy and precision, Application, White, Lettuce, Risk, ESCB, University of Siegen, OECD, Chapter One, Lipstick, Sack, XT, BIC, Garlic, Consumption, Sokol, Meat, VAR, Database, Section 3, Rusk, American Economic Journal, Royal, Curd, Overalls, Lamb, Great Lockdown, Fruit, Economy, COICOP, International Journal of Forecasting, Aftershave, Section 2, Nonparametric statistics, Attention, Conference, CPI, Heat, Public economics, Common sunflower, Nowcasting, American Economic Review, Computational Statistics (journal), GFK, COVID-19 pandemic, Exercise, Shock, Running, UNECE, Edible, Gambling, Banco, Rigid transformation, European Commission, Frozen, C.2, PRISMA, Official statistics, Concept, Drink, Transaction data, Somatosensory system, Punctuality, Altbier, Food prices, Response, GDP, Index, E31, Cabinet of Germany, Holiday, Machine learning, Series, Green, Whisky, Vegetable, Cola, Journal of Econometrics, Sadik Harchaoui, University, Aggregate, World Bank Group, B.1, Use, Book, Economic statistics, Civil service commission, 1L, Apple, Bread, Filter, Central bank, Brandeis University, Economic Modelling, Bank, Barkan, Roulade, Dairy product, Neural network, Reproduction, IMF, Section, ID, Data, D4L, Cryptocurrency

Key Points:

Monetary asmmetries without (and with) price stickiness

Retrieved on:

金曜日, 4月 19, 2024

Online, University, Public Security Section 9, Employment, Calibration, Small, Equity, Volume Ten, Research Papers in Economics, Policy, A.4, Communication, Crisis, Mass, Silvana Tenreyro, Business, Shock, Intuition, Business cycle, TFP, Volume, European Economic Review, Marginal value, SME, NBER, Forecasting, Depression, 3rd millennium, European Economic Association, Conceptual model, Journal of Monetary Economics, Insurance, Harmonization, Great Depression, CES, Economic Inquiry, Paper, Environment, Political economy, Journal of Financial Economics, MIT, University of York, COVID-19, Behavior, Review of Economic Dynamics, Rigid transformation, Website, Access to finance, Accounting, Working paper, Probability, Total, Appendix, Section 8, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Zero lower bound, Curve, Chapter, Cost, Nominal, Journal of Political Economy, Euro, PDF, ECB, Unemployment, Hoarding, STAT, Economic Policy (journal), Household, Canadian International Council, Social science, Government, Federal Reserve Bank, JEL, Journal, Textbook, Missing, Food, Private sector, A.5, Asymmetric, The Journal of Finance, Credit, Speech, Princeton University Press, Literature, NK, European Central Bank, Growth, Labour, Monetary economics, Loss aversion, Financial intermediary, Injection, Elasticity, Inventory, Subprime lending, Ben Bernanke, Finance, BIS, Phillips curve, International Economic Review, Money, London School of Economics, Marginal product of labor, Pruning, Marginal product, The Economic Journal, Rate, Aswath Damodaran, Risk, OECD, Competition (economics), Section 4, MIT Press, Consumption, Bond, Section 3, Yield curve, Loanable funds, Habit, Cobb–Douglas production function, Economy, Aarhus University, Financial economics, Section 2, Conference, Central bank, Chapter Two, Monetary policy, Capital, Hartman–Grobman theorem, CEPR, Framework, American Economic Review, Capital Markets Union, ZLB, Exercise, Liquidity, Interest, Intensive word form, Workshop, European Commission, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Population growth, B1, Response, Quarterly Journal, Community business development corporation, GDP, E31, Control, Journal of Economic Theory, Christian Social Union (UK), T2M, Hamper, Data, American Economic Journal, Aggregate, Konstantinidis, B.1, A.9, A.6, Remuneration, Civil service commission, EUR, Uncertainty, Motivation, A.7, Bank, GFC, Section 13, Motion, Reproduction, IMF, Staggers Rail Act, Abstract, Tale, Handbook, Asymmetry, Stanford University, Communications satellite

Key Points:

Deposit market concentration and monetary transmission: evidence from the euro area

Retrieved on:

日曜日, 2月 4, 2024

Neumark, American Economic Journal, Paper, A18, A21, Money, A4, Financial crisis, International, A5, A1, Exercise, Timothy, A14, Monetary policy, IRF, Interest rate, Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, NII, A8, Policy, HICP, MMF, Control, Statistics, Series, ECB, DNB, Index (economics), Finance, Section 3, GDP, History, American Economic Review, De Nederlandsche Bank, Rigidity, XB, Habit, Website, Federal funds, Social science, A11, 95.1 FM, IMF, MPS, A9, Credit, University of Amsterdam, Wang, A26, HHI, European Economic Review, Reproduction, Shock, University, Journal of Political Economy, Central bank, A30, Journal of Monetary Economics, Interval (mathematics), A25, G21, Politics, Auerbach, Silvana Tenreyro, XT, Research Papers in Economics, Causality, Deposit, Yb, A27, Time series, Dynamics, Literature, Hey, SSI, Interpolation, O'Driscoll (surname), BSI, A23, United, Domestic, European Central Bank, VAR, A28, Rigid transformation, A6, OIS, Role, PDF, Research, Feedback, The Journal of Finance, A15, A17, NFC, A22, E43, DSGE, Quarterly Journal, E52, MIR, Appendix, A10, Information, Surface finishing

Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
I study the transmission of monetary policy to deposit rates in the euro area with a
focus on asymmetries and the role of banking sector concentration.
Moreover, the
gap between deposit rates across euro area member states - despite being exposed to the same
key ECB interest rates - has widened.
This begs the question whether deposit rates are more
sluggish in response to both policy rate increases and cuts, and what factors might influence the
transmission of monetary policy to deposit rates.
Whether banks are indeed able to adjust deposit rates asymmetrically to positive and
negative changes in policy rates could thus well depend on how much market power they hold
in the deposit market.
Arguing that market power increases in the degree of market concentration,
I further consider whether more concentrated banking sectors set rates (more) asymmetrically.
The response of deposit rates in banking sectors with an average degree of concentration does
not appear asymmetric.
The degree of market concentration is often pointed at, but recent evidence
for the euro area is scarce.
In this paper, I provide empirical evidence on the asymmetric response of deposit rates to
monetary policy, and relate this to the degree of concentration within a country?s banking sector.
Both papers
provide empirical evidence based on US deposit markets showing that deposit rates respond
more rigidly to upward changes in market rates than downward changes, especially so in more
concentrated markets.
Recent research on euro area deposit markets,
instead, has focused more on the transmission of negative policy rates (see e.g.
Whether banks are able to set deposit rates that materially differ from policy rates is affected
ECB Working Paper Series No 2896

4

by market concentration: market power is assumed to increase in the degree of concentration in
the banking sector.
Concentration thus appears to matter for how quickly ECB monetary policy has
been transmitted to deposit rates across the euro area.
Banks thus have a motive to be
rigid in adjusting deposit rates to a ?positive? monetary policy shock.
While customers are generally (and potentially rationally) inattentive, swift and substantial
nominal deposit rate declines may trigger deposit outflows.
relative deposit rate = deposit rate - short term rate
The inverse of the wedge, the relative deposit rate will allow us to see more clearly how
the deposit rate evolves in comparison to the short-term rate.
This then translates to (more
pronounced) effects on the transmission of policy to the deposit wedge, reinforcing the asymmetry discussed before.
More concentration would mean more rigid deposit rates (and thus an
increase in the deposit wedge) in case of positive surprises, and more flexible deposit rates (and
thus a decrease in the deposit wedge) in case of negative surprises (see also e.g.
I add an identical
altered-linex adjustment cost for deposit rates, to capture the upward rigidity and downward
flexibility of deposit rates as well.
As discussed
previously, the deposit rate is particularly rigid in case of a positive shock, illustrating the dividend smoothing motive and bank market power.
Without the asymmetric adjustment cost,
the response of the deposit rates to positive and negative changes in policy would have been
symmetric.
This appears a reasonable assumption
in general, as market concentration or market shares are slow-moving concepts.
3
Methods and data

I study the dynamic response to an unexpected change in monetary policy on deposit rates
in different countries in the euro area.
deposit rate - short-term rate), which for the sake of
brevity I will refer to as the ?relative deposit rate?.
Positive IRFs for the relative deposit rate imply that
the deposit rate has increased by more than the short-term rate, narrowing the wedge between
the short-term rate and the deposit rate.
0
?2
?2
?4
?6

?4
4

8

12

4

Months

8

12

Months

Figure 9: NFC rate response - linear combination of ?0 and ?1

Relative deposit rate at 1 month

Relative deposit rate at 4 months

0.0

0
?1

p.p.
0
0
?2
?1
?4
4

8

12

4

8

Months

12

Months

Figure 12: NFC rate response - linear combination of ?0 and ?1

Relative deposit rate at 1 month

Relative deposit rate at 4 months
2.0

1.5

p.p.
And, (2) how quickly
households and NFCs learn about changes in monetary policy, via the deposit rate, may vary
across the monetary union.
?0 , ?1 )
Figure A16: NFC overnight deposits, small member states
Relative deposit rate (average)

Relative deposit rate (interaction)

2

10
5

p.p.
?0 , ?1 )
Figure A19: NFC overnight deposits, four lags
Relative deposit rate (average)

Relative deposit rate (interaction)
5

0

p.p.
?0 , ?1 )
Figure A28: NFC overnight deposits, small member states
Relative deposit rate (average)

Relative deposit rate (interaction)

3

5.0

2

2.5

p.p.
?0 , ?1 )
Figure A31: NFC overnight deposits, four lags
Relative deposit rate (average)

Relative deposit rate (interaction)

3
2

p.p.