Islamism

• Gen. Alfred M. Gray Jr., who died on March 20, 2024, at the age of 95, was seen as a legend for his heroism in combat.
• But despite his military success, Gray, who went on to serve as the 29th commandant of the Marine Corps from 1987 to 1991, will always be associated with one of the darkest days in U.S. military history: the Beirut barracks bombing on Oct. 23, 1983.
• The terrorist attack killed more than 300 people, including 241 U.S. service personnel under Gray’s command, although he was stateside at the time of the attack.
• As a scholar currently doing research for a project on that attack, I can’t help but note that Gray’s death comes amid a surge of violence in Lebanon and at a time when U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East are again being targeted by Islamist groups funded by Iran.

Marines in Lebanon

Gray’s experience with U.S. involvement in Lebanon underscores the dangers American troops face when deployed to volatile areas. On June 4, 1981, he was assigned to command the 2nd Marine Division and all the battalions that went into a war-torn Lebanon from 1982 to 1984.

• It began on April 13, 1975, and, similar to the upsurge in violence in Lebanon now, it was fueled by events south of the country’s border.
• Palestinians expelled or fleeing from what became Israel in 1948 ended up as refugees in neighboring countries, including Lebanon.
• By the mid-1970s, over 20,000 PLO fighters were in Lebanon and launching attacks on Israel.
• In 1982, Israel launched Operation Peace for Galilee, invaded Lebanon and occupied Beirut with the intention of destroying PLO forces.

Day of attack

• Minutes later, a similar attack took place in the French quarter, resulting in the deaths of 58 French paratroopers.
• To this day, this event remains the deadliest single-day attack for the United States Marine Corps since the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945.
• The Beirut barracks bombing was a personal affair for Gray; his troops were in Lebanon, and he had visited them just months before the attack.

After the bombing, Gray attended over 100 funerals of the service members killed. He also offered his resignation over the incident – the only senior officer to do so. His request was declined.

Lessons from 1983

• One could draw many parallels between the Beirut barracks bombing of 1983 and current events.
• In August 1982, President Ronald Reagan expressed his grave concern over Israel’s conduct in Lebanon and warned Israel about using American weaponry offensively.
• Forty years on, American troops in the Middle East remain a target for much the same reason.
• There is another parallel: Just as the group that claimed responsibility for the 1983 Beirut attack was being financed by Iran, so too today are the groups responsible for attacking U.S. bases across the Middle East.
• Spurred by failings involved in the 1983 bombing, Gray sought to reform the Marine Corps after the tragedy, with greater focus on intelligence-gathering and understanding enemy groups.

Mireille Rebeiz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Ambitious and mercurial, with a dark past, former army general Prabowo Subianto has spent a lifetime vying for the ultimate prize in Indonesian politics. Now, with a large lead in the latest polls ahead of this week’s election, it looks as though the presidency is finally within his grasp. So, who is Prabowo and how will he change Indonesia if he wins?

A rapid rise through the military ranks – and fall

• Prabowo’s grandfather was the founder of Indonesia’s first state bank and a prominent member of Indonesia’s independence movement.
• His father was a leading economist who served as minister of finance, minister of trade and minister for research in the government.

• An ambitious military officer serving mostly in the Special Forces (Kopassus), his marriage to a daughter of the authoritarian former president, Soeharto, fast-tracked his career.
• Prabowo rose to the rank of lieutenant general and, finally, the key position of commander of the powerful Army Strategic Reserve (Kostrad) in the capital, Jakarta.
• As Soeharto’s regime began to falter amid the financial crisis of 1997, Prabowo become involved in covert operations to defend Soeharto’s army-backed and repressive New Order regime against its critics.
• He went into voluntary exile in Jordan for some years and it seemed his career was over.

Three unsuccessful bids for higher office

• By 2009, he was a wealthy business figure and had co-founded his own political party, Gerindra.
• He had also rehabilitated himself enough to make a formal bid for power, running for vice president in the 2009 elections on a ticket with former president Megawati Soekarnoputri.
• In 2019, he tried once again against Jokowi, this time turning to conservative Islamists to support him.
• Dumping his supporters, he took the position of defence minister in the cabinet of his rival, Jokowi.

Controversial political moves

• In his current run for president, Prabowo has selected Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his vice-presidential running mate.
• (Although Jokowi has never explicitly endorsed Prabowo, Gibran’s candidacy makes Jokowi’s preferences crystal clear.)
• His actions also pose a major threat to PDI-P’s prospects in the legislative elections (held at the same time as the presidential vote).
• To the PDI-P leader, former president Megawati, and many of her supporters, Jokowi is now a traitor and enemy who may inflict huge damage on their political prospects.

Why this election matters

• However, Prabowo has undergone (yet another) spectacular reinvention in recent months that has helped as well.
• In fact, he has repeatedly said Indonesia’s democratic system is not working and the country should return to its original 1945 constitution.
• This would mean unravelling most of the reforms introduced since Soeharto fell, which are largely based on constitutional amendments.
• This means many have no memory of Soeharto’s oppressive and abusive New Order that Prabowo seems to want to revive.

Tim Lindsey receives funding from the Australian Research Council

The memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland announced on 1 January 2024 set off diplomatic rows in the Horn of Africa – and beyond. Details of the agreement are not publicly known, but both state leaders have touched on its content. Among the main elements:
Ethiopia gets a 50-year lease on a strip of land on Somaliland’s Red Sea coast for naval and commercial maritime use and access to the Berbera port.
Somaliland gets a share of Ethiopian Airlines. It also gets an undertaking that Ethiopia will investigate recognising Somaliland as a sovereign state. If it decides to do so, Ethiopia will be the first country to recognise Somaliland. The breakaway state has operated autonomously since it declared its independence from Somalia in May 1991, but lacks international recognition.

• It argues that the country’s historical status and its rapid economic growth entitle it to sovereign access to the sea.
• The diplomatic squabbles show re-configurations of political alliances in the Red Sea region and beyond.
• The memorandum of understanding has placed the question of Somaliland’s recognition into the centre of these political dynamics.

Opposition

• The president of the federal government of Somalia, Sheikh Hassan Mohamud, declared the memorandum a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• It does not even exert full territorial control across Somalia – Al-Shabaab controls territory in south and central Somalia.
• So far the United Arab Emirates, a close partner of Somaliland and Ethiopia, has been silent.
• Not surprising is the opposition of Djibouti and China.
• Eritrea and Ethiopia fell out again after Ethiopia struck peace with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in November 2022.

The way forward

• The regional Intergovernmental Authority for Development, chaired by Djibouti, recently convened an extraordinary meeting to discuss tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia.
• It affirmed the territorial integrity of Somalia, but also called for de-escalation and dialogue.
• But Ethiopia’s president, who uses access to the sea to mobilise public support, has a lot to lose by offending these states.

This author is part of a research project on Port Infrastructure, International Politics, Everyday Life in the Horn of Africa (http://portinfrastructure.org) which received funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed in this article are solely the responsibility of the author.

• Some of these nations have been dealing with simmering unrest, however, which could erupt in 2024 and seize the global spotlight.
• Here are five places where I believe civil conflicts or unrest could worsen and potentially lead to violence.

Myanmar

• Myanmar descended into chaos in 2021 when a military coup overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and sparked widespread civil protests that eventually morphed into an armed resistance.
• The country, home to 135 ethnic groups, has rarely known peace.
• This exploded after the coup as ethnic militia groups joined forces with pro-democracy fighters from the Bamar majority protesting the junta.

Mali

• In Mali, a nation in the turbulent Sahel region of Africa, tensions escalated throughout 2023 and now threaten to erupt into full-scale civil war.
• A United Nations peacekeeping mission was established in 2013 to bring stability to Mali.
• Then, in 2015, key rebel groups signed a peace agreement with the Mali government.
• Read more:
  Mali crisis: UN peacekeepers are leaving after 10 years – what's needed for a smooth transition

  After two more coups in 2020 and 2021, military officers consolidated their power and said they would restore the state’s full territorial control over all of Mali.

Lebanon

• In 2019, widespread civil protest broke out in Lebanon against leaders who were perceived not to be addressing the day-to-day needs of the population.
• The International Monetary Fund criticised Lebanon in September for a lack of economic reform.
• Most recently, the war between Israel and Hamas has threatened to spill over to Lebanon, home to the Hezbollah militant group, which claims to have an army of 100,000 fighters.

Pakistan

• Pakistan also faces spillover from instability in neighbouring Afghanistan and increased terror attacks.
• Pakistan is expected to hold parliamentary elections in February 2024, after which the current military caretaker government is expected to transfer power back to civilian rule.
• Read more:
  How Imran Khan's populism has divided Pakistan and put it on a knife's edge

Sri Lanka

• Sri Lanka faced a debilitating economic crisis in 2022 that led to critical fuel, food and medical shortages.
• Stability returned in 2023 as Sri Lanka began implementing economic reforms as part of a bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
• Elections are also due in Sri Lanka by late 2024.

Jessica Genauer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.