National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

• A big reason is El Niño.
• El Niño typically means trouble for the Pacific and a break for the Atlantic coast and Caribbean.
• It’s also important to remember that even in quiet years, a single storm can cause enormous destruction.

A tale of two basins

• In the North Atlantic, tropical storms typically form over the warm waters off eastern Africa.
• Those tropical storms and hurricanes have caused over a trillion dollars in damage in the U.S. since 1981.
• In the eastern North Pacific, tropical storms tend to form closer to land, between Mexico and Clipperton Island off Central America.
• Longer-tracked Pacific storms that move into the central Pacific can affect shipping and hit Hawaii, as Hurricane Lane did in 2018.

El Niño creates a seesaw pattern

• That seesaw pattern is largely driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which includes varying strengths of El Niño and its opposite, La Niña.
• During El Niño, the trade winds that blow from east to west weaken, allowing warm ocean water to build up at the equator, west of South America.
• La Niña – El Niño’s opposite, with cooler water in the tropical Pacific – reverses this pattern.

Who faces the greatest risk in the Pacific?

• During El Niño events, storms in the eastern North Pacific tend to form farther to the west.
• That places Hawaii and the central Pacific at greater risk from damaging storms than normal.
• The highly destructive Hurricanes Manuel in 2013 and Willa in 2018 show the immense impact Pacific storms can have in the region.

Why 2023 hurricane forecasts are so uncertain

• The eastern Pacific hurricane season started May 15, and the Atlantic season starts June 1, with both running through Nov. 30.
• In its 2023 Atlantic hurricane outlook released in late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes.
• In the eastern Pacific, NOAA forecasts 14 to 20 named storms, seven to 11 hurricanes and four to eight major hurricanes.
• We should expect the next named Atlantic and Pacific storms – Arlene and Adrian, respectively – in the coming weeks.

• DARTMOUTH, NS, May 25, 2023 /CNW/ - Today, Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Hurricane Centre provided the Canadian context to the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's outlook for the 2023 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
• The Canadian Hurricane Centre and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration work closely together to promote hurricane safety and preparedness throughout the season.
• Climate change is expected to increase both the average and maximum rain rates that are associated with hurricanes.
• Environment and Climate Change Canada's state-of-the-art weather forecasting systems give Canadians notice of approaching tropical storms or hurricanes days in advance.

• Earlier this month, the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science at the University of Miami awarded the inaugural William R. Middelthon III Endowed Chair in Earth Sciences to Benjamin Kirtman, a professor in the school’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
• “I am honored to have the opportunity to establish this endowed chair," said Middelthon, a longtime supporter of the school’s research and education initiatives.
• “I am deeply honored to be the first recipient of the William R. Middelthon III Endowed Chair in Earth Sciences,” said Kirtman.
• The William R. Middelthon III Endowed Chair in Earth Sciences is part of the University’s Centennial Talents initiative, a bold plan to significantly increase the number of endowed positions by 2025 in celebration of the University’s centennial.

• The Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on People with Disabilities examines how extreme weather events and environmental hazards have adversely and disproportionately impacted people with disabilities in the United States and its territories over the past 20 years.
• "'Weathering the storm' is more than an idiomatic expression given the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events," said NCD Chairman Andrés J. Gallegos.
• "Rights and responsibilities under federal disability laws do not disappear due to extreme weather catastrophe," said Gallegos.
• NCD found that during an emergency or major disaster, people  with physical, sensory, mental, or cognitive disabilities are disproportionately affected.