The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain reorientation

We analyse the macroeconomic

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https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2903~8bc715c800.en.pdf

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Sabato, Febbraio 10, 2024

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Sommario

Key Points:

We analyse the macroeconomic
effects of supply chain reorientation through localisation policies, using a global dynamic
general equilibrium model.
While arguments about comparative advantage, the potential forgone benefits of international specialisation and industry- and product-specific disruptions are familiar, there is less
analysis on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain changes resulting from localisation policies.
The large sensitivity of the global economy to the recent supply chain shocks suggests that
the international trade reconfiguration implied by localisation policies could also have sizable
impacts on key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment and inflation.
Thus, localisation focuses on the
goods in our model most closely related to global supply chains.
Retaliation also attenuates any positive effects from
reshoring on output and implies a reduction in the volume of overall international trade.
This finding calls for limiting the scope of reshoring, such as by focusing on vital goods that are
most susceptible to supply chain disruptions.
Either that, or the economic costs are considered a worthwhile trade-off for an increase
in security of supply, for example.
While arguments about comparative advantage, the potential forgone benefits of international specialisation and industry- and product-specific disruptions are familiar, there is less
analysis on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain changes resulting from localisation policies.
Recent supply chain shocks have had large effects, with disruptions in 2021 estimated
to have reduced euro area GDP by around two percent and doubled the rate of manufacturing producer inflation (Celasun et al., 2022).
To analyse this issue, we simulate a (partial) reshoring of production back to Europe in
a global dynamic general equilibrium framework.
Thus,
localisation focuses on the goods in our model most closely related to global supply chains.3 We
model reshoring through a direct change to the export goods? production-function parameters.
Since reshoring
effectively shortens the supply chain, the sum of markups along the chain falls.
This means that imports that are at the end of the supply chain (i.e.
In particular, our work relates to papers examining the potential for countries to reduce
their exposure to global supply chains.
(2021) demonstrate that reduced reliance on foreign inputs does not mitigate pandemicinduced contractions in labour supply.
(2021) find no evidence of a relationship
between global value chain integration and macroeconomic volatility.
This dynamic, along with factors such as natural disasters, climate-change
induced volatility and terrorism mean that supply chain disruptions could be a new normal
(Grossman et al., 2021).
Our work contributes to the literature providing dynamic general equilibrium analyses of
protectionist policies, in particular those using global macroeconomic models to quantify trade
policy changes.
(2008) analyse the effect of a rise in protectionism in response
to rising global trade imbalances.
Linde? and Pescatori (2019) find that although the macroeconomic costs of a
trade war are substantial, a fully symmetric retaliation is the best response.
(2020) consider a rich input-output structure and demonstrate that closer integration amplifies
the adverse effects of protectionist trade policies.
Several recent studies have also examined the economic effects of a global trade fragmentation.
First, we modify a dynamic general
equilibrium model of the global economy in order to analyse the transmission of localisation
policies.
This allows for a comprehensive treatment of cross-border macroeconomic interdependences and spillovers between the different regions.
4
There is, however, substantial cross-country heterogeneity in terms of impact, with small open economies
(SOEs) reliant on global supply chains more affected.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2903
7

Second, we are able to assess both long-run effects and the transition dynamics of localisation
policies.
Our model contains a detailed monetary block and captures inflation dynamics, which is a key
concern for supply chain reorientation.
Overall, our paper contains a careful analysis of the key aspects of the localisation debate,
including effects of localisation on domestic competition and efficiency.
Section 2 provides a brief overview of the model, the modifications to examine
global supply chain reorientation, some key details on the calibration and a brief discussion of
the nature of our exercise.
(2020) for discussions of the relative strengths and weaknesses of
trade and macroeconomic models in assessing large economic shocks.
2.1
Supply chain reorientation

Our analysis focuses on imported inputs used to produce goods for export, as the introduction
of localisation policies is in response to recent disruptions to global supply chains.
Since reshoring
effectively shortens the supply chain, the sum of markups along the chain falls.
Further to
these effects, engagement with global firms provides an opportunity for knowledge spillovers to
local firms (Criscuolo et al., 2017).
This finding calls for limiting the scope of reshoring, such as by focusing on vital goods that are
most susceptible to supply chain disruptions.
(B12)
Adjusting the share of local inputs in export goods, of course, affects prices and quantities all
along the supply chain.