Nicola Sturgeon arrest: why SNP turmoil has a surprisingly limited effect on its polling

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Former leader and former first minister Nicola Sturgeon had already described the events of the past few months as beyond her “worst nightmares” – and that was before she was arrested.

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Provider:

The Conversation

URL:

https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeon-arrest-why-snp-turmoil-has-a-surprisingly-limited-effect-on-its-polling-207547

Retrieved on:

Jeudi, juin 15, 2023

Information

Tags:

Friends, Scottish National Party, Jeremy Corbyn, Chronology, Movement, Government, Downing Street, SNP, Sturgeon, PR, Conservatism, Graph, Labour

Geotags:

LONDON, HOLYROOD, WESTMINSTER, SCOTLAND

Résumé

Key Points:

Former leader and former first minister Nicola Sturgeon had already described the events of the past few months as beyond her “worst nightmares” – and that was before she was arrested.
Although Sturgeon was subsequently released without charge pending further investigations, opinion can hardly be divided on the state of that reputation now.

Chaos without a cost?

The answer, judging by the graph below, is: almost unaffected.
So the pair of columns on the far right in each cluster shows what has happened since that resignation.
The SNP is down just two percentage points in both Westminster and Holyrood vote intention polls.

Stubborn support for independence

Support for independence is basically unchanged since Sturgeon’s resignation.
There was an upturn in support for independence in the autumn of 2022, which might be termed “the Liz Truss dividend” and the downturn that followed was in large part the unwinding of that effect (possibly aggravated by the unpopularity of the SNP’s gender recognition legislation).
This tendency for independence support to be about what happens in London rather than Edinburgh is visible from other angles, too.

How Yes keeps the SNP afloat

At every election since 2014, the overwhelming majority of those with a Yes vote intention cast at least one ballot for the SNP.
This is why the overall level of SNP support is lowest in the middle cluster in the graph above.
Even with a viable alternative Yes party, though, and even after the SNP’s annus horribilis so far, still at least two in three independence supporters would cast an SNP list vote.
If Yes will keep the SNP afloat, will it also keep Labour at bay – maybe even denying Labour leader Keir Starmer a majority – in the upcoming general election?