Trump

• Much of the news coverage of the discussions and negotiations aimed at averting a government shutdown on Nov. 17, 2023, relies on pundits and their unnamed sources, on leaks, speculation, wishful thinking and maybe even the reading of tea leaves.
• Harbridge-Yong is a specialist in partisan conflict and the lack of bipartisan agreement in American politics, so her expertise is tailor-made for the moment.

What do the repeated and difficult debt limit and budget negotiations in Congress look like to you?

• The problems that Congress and the White House are having in reaching compromises highlight two aspects of contemporary politics.
• The first: Since the 1970s, both the House and Senate have become much more polarized.
• Members of the two parties are more unified internally and further apart from the opposing party.

• So you now have many Republicans who are more willing to fight quite hard against the Democrats because they don’t want to give a win to Biden.
• This is most evident among the most conservative wing of the party, which has both individual and collective reasons to oppose a compromise.
• These dynamics, layered on top of policy interests, all contribute to the problems that we’re seeing now.

What has been the role of brinkmanship in these conflicts?

• During the May 2023 version of these negotiations, that meant coming to the edge of potential default on the debt.
• This fall, Congress passed a short-term funding bill with only hours to spare before the government shut down.

Does brinkmanship work?

• In some instances, concessions by the other side were granted, so brinkmanship paid off.
• Brinkmanship and gridlock are disproportionately consequential for Democrats, who generally want to expand government programs, versus for Republicans, who tend to want to constrict government programs.
• It may be part of why we see Republicans, especially on the far right, going harder on this kind of brinkmanship.

How does the public see brinkmanship?

• My own work has shown that the public does not like gridlock on issues in which people agree on the end goal.
• The public, on average, even prefers a victory for the other side over policy gridlock.
• So on the one hand, the public doesn’t like gridlock – especially gridlock when the consequences are so bad, as default or a shutdown would be.

Democracy is about representation. As they conduct negotiations, do lawmakers see themselves as representing voters?

• However, even if individual members think they’re representing their constituents, representation at the aggregate level can be poor.
• What the public as a whole – which tends to be more moderate – wants is compromise and resolution.

Laurel Harbridge-Yong receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Justice, Unite America, and the Social Science Research Council.

• Today, the Court granted the government’s request for a writ of certiorari in NCLA’s challenge to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ unilateral bump-stock ban.
• Garland v. Cargill will be NCLA’s fourth case argued before the U.S. Supreme Court in under 2 years.
• As these cases show, we will fight all the way to the Supreme Court to protect civil liberties from federal agencies’ attacks.
• We are confident the U.S. Supreme Court will right this wrong for Michael Cargill and all Americans.”

• At the same time, September set the single-month record for border encounters breaking the previous record set in August.
• Yet, despite these staggering numbers, the Biden administration continues to insist that our borders are secure and the American public has no reason to be concerned.
• "In total, there were 341,392 illegal aliens encountered in September, the highest monthly tally on record.
• These totals do not include 'gotaways,' which have averaged more than 50,000 per month during the first 32 months of the Biden administration.

• More Americans Say Democracy is Under Threat, Majority Support Constitutional Reforms
  GRINNELL, Iowa, Oct. 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The newest Grinnell College National Poll shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat among likely voters if the 2024 general election was held today.
• Independents divide, but tilt toward Trump (35% vs. 32% for Biden), with 30% saying they would vote for someone else.
• President Biden's approval rating comes in at 38%, the second-best showing in Grinnell College National Poll history, but a majority (53%) still disapprove of his job performance.
• The Grinnell College National Poll surveyed 1,006 Americans ages 18 and over between October 10-15, 2023.