Tanzania's gas boom that never was – when local hopes are dashed by global realities
High commodity prices throughout the late 2000s and early 2010s resulted in new regions of the world being explored for hydrocarbons.
- High commodity prices throughout the late 2000s and early 2010s resulted in new regions of the world being explored for hydrocarbons.
- Between 2010 and 2015, Mtwara went from a backward periphery to the forefront of Tanzania’s gas sector.
- Natural gas prices fell from US$16 per million metric British thermal unit (MMBtu) in 2009 to US$4 MMBtu in 2017.
- In Mtwara, it was less the resources themselves that caused the boom, but rather the anticipation of a future gas boom.
The anticipation
- I found that people expected natural gas to cause an economic uplift, and it was this that prompted considerable investment in the region.
- The party’s campaign slogan – “Mtwara will be the new Dubai!” – was repeated to me throughout my time in Mtwara.
- They expected this to continue, and to obtain compensation for land being used by the gas sector.
- Within just a few years, Mtwara’s economic prospects and imagined future had been dramatically entwined with international gas prices.
The reality
- Cashews were the bedrock of the local economy before the discovery of natural gas.
- In my interviews, villagers close to the onshore extraction tended to discuss development going at a slower pace than during the “boom”.
- The pace of development was seen to have returned to “normal”, meaning the pace before the discovery of gas.
The changing energy landscape
- Rapid changes in the energy landscape can create and recreate frontiers quickly, and change the lives of those who live in such frontier regions.
- Since this research has taken place, there has been considerable change in the energy landscape.