Australian Electoral Commission

The 'yes' Voice campaign is far outspending 'no' in online advertising, but is the message getting through?

Retrieved on: 
Monday, September 25, 2023

With early voting set to open next week for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, this is a critical time for campaigners to win over voters.

Key Points: 
  • With early voting set to open next week for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, this is a critical time for campaigners to win over voters.
  • If the same voting patterns apply to the referendum, this means more than half of Australians, particularly older voters, may have cast a vote before voting day on October 14.

What’s happening in the polls?

    • According to Professor Simon Jackman’s averaging of the polls, “no” currently leads “yes” by 58% to 42% nationally.
    • The rate of decline in support for “yes” continues to be about 0.75 of a percentage point a week.
    • If this trend continues, the “yes” vote would sit at 39.6% on October 14, 5.5 percentage points below the “yes” vote in the republic referendum.

What’s happening in the news and social media?

    • Using Meltwater data, we have seen a massive spike in Voice media coverage since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the referendum date at the end of August.
    • In the most recent week we analysed, from September 14-21, we saw a huge jump of mentions of the Voice to Parliament (2.86 million) in print media, radio, TV and social media.
    • This compares to about a quarter million mentions in the first week of the “yes” and “no” campaigns, which we documented in our last report of this series monitoring both campaigns.
    • Media coverage of the Voice peaked on September 17 with 38,000 mentions, thanks to widespread coverage of the “yes” rallies that day around the country.

Who is advertising online?

    • This week, we specifically turned our attention to the online advertising spending of the campaigns.
    • The main online advertising spend is on Meta’s Facebook and Instagram platforms.
    • In the last three months, its advertising expenditure exceeds $1.1 million, compared to just under $100,000 for Fair Australia, the leading “no” campaign organisation.
    • The advertising spending data shows how drastically different the strategies of the two main campaigns are.

Referendum disinformation

    • Studies show disinformation surrounding the referendum has been prevalent on X since at least March.
    • To mitigate the harms, the AEC has established a disinformation register to inform citizens about the referendum process and call out falsehoods.
    • We’ve identified three types of disinformation campaigns in the campaign so far.
    • This disinformation type is not covered in the AEC’s register, as the organisation has no provisions to enforce truth in political advertising.
    • All three types of disinformation campaigns attacking this referendum should concern us deeply because they threaten trust in our political institutions, which undermines our vibrant democracy.

Australians to vote October 14 on the Voice, with Albanese urging people to support 'an idea'

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Australians will vote on October 14 to decide whether the Constitution will be changed to include a Voice to Parliament and executive government.

Key Points: 
  • Australians will vote on October 14 to decide whether the Constitution will be changed to include a Voice to Parliament and executive government.
  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the long-anticipated date to an enthusiastic audience of about 400 in the Adelaide suburb of Elizabeth.
  • Albanese said this was a “once in a generation chance to bring our country together, and to change it for the better”.
  • “You are being asked to vote for an idea - to say yes to an idea whose time has come,” the Prime Minister said.

As referendum set for October 14, 'yes' is behind and the poll trends are unfavourable

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today announced that the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14.

Key Points: 
  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today announced that the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14.
  • To succeed, a constitutional referendum requires a majority in at least four of the six states as well as a national majority.
  • A Voice poll hasn’t been conducted since the mid-August Resolve poll that gave “no” a 54–46 lead.

Ticks and crosses referendum issue

    • But in a media release last Friday, the AEC said that, owing to longstanding legal advice, ticks would be counted as “yes” votes, but crosses would be informal.
    • The “no” side is now well ahead in polling for this referendum, and that lead is increasing.
    • It’s very unlikely the ticks and crosses issue will affect the result.

Essential poll: 51–43 to Labor including undecided

    • In last week’s federal Essential poll, conducted August 16–20 from a sample of 1,151, Labor led by 51–43 including undecided (52–42 the previous fortnight).
    • Primary votes were 33% Labor (steady), 33% Coalition (up three), 14% Greens (up two), 5% One Nation (down three), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (steady).
    • Respondents were asked to rate Albanese, Peter Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10.

Morgan poll: 53.5–46.5 to Labor


    In this week’s federal weekly Morgan poll, conducted August 21–27 from a sample of 1,396, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 35% Labor (up 1.5), 35% Coalition (down 1.5), 13.5% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (down one), 6.5% independents (down two) and 5% others (up two). Labor dropped 1.5 points last week.

NSW: Mark Latham resigns from One Nation

    • On August 22, New South Wales upper house MPs Mark Latham and Rod Roberts resigned from One Nation, after accusing the party of “defrauding NSW electoral funds”.
    • They will continue to sit as independents in the NSW upper house.

Victorian Warrandyte byelection: Liberals crush Greens

    • At the 2022 Victorian state election, the Liberals beat Labor in Warrandyte by a 54.2–45.8 margin.
    • The Liberals defeated the Greens by 71.1–28.9, from primary votes of 57.4% Liberals (up 8.9%), 18.6% Greens (up 7.4%), 5.7% Labour DLP (new), 4.1% independent Maya Tesa (new) and 3.9% Victorian Socialists (new).
    • It’s difficult to interpret byelections that are forfeited by one major party, but the Liberals will be happy with the surge in their primary vote.
    • Many Labor voters clearly voted Liberal instead of Greens.

Right likely to win October 14 New Zealand election


    I wrote for The Poll Bludger on August 23 that the two main right-wing New Zealand parties are likely to form government after the October 14 New Zealand election, replacing the current Labour government. The right is also likely to win the October 22 Argentine election, while there’s a UK byelection in an SNP-held seat to come.

Australians will vote in a referendum on October 14. What do you need to know?

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Australians will go to the polls on October 14 to vote in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. We have not voted in a federal referendum since 1999. So what do you need to know?How is a referendum run? A referendum is run by the Australian Electoral Commission in the same way as they do elections.

Key Points: 


Australians will go to the polls on October 14 to vote in a referendum on an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. We have not voted in a federal referendum since 1999. So what do you need to know?

How is a referendum run?

    • A referendum is run by the Australian Electoral Commission in the same way as they do elections.
    • That means most people will vote in a polling booth on Saturday October 14 at a local school or community centre.

What will I be voting on?

    • In this case, the amendment doesn’t change existing words, but instead adds new words to the Constitution.
    • Chapter IX — Recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples 129 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice In recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Peoples of Australia: (i) there shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice; (ii) the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to the Parliament and the Executive Government of the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples; (iii) the Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to matters relating to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice, including its composition, functions, powers and procedures.

What is the question and how do I fill in the ballot paper correctly?

    • Instead, voters are asked to approve the amendment as set out in the proposed law that has been already passed by parliament.
    • That proposed law is identified by its “long title’, which gives a brief description of its nature.
    • A Proposed Law: to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.
    • A single box is then provided, and you fill in your ballot paper by either writing "yes” or “no” in that box.

How is the outcome of the referendum determined and when will we know?

    • Pre-poll votes and those postal votes that have already been received will also be counted on the night.
    • Unlike an election, there is a special double majority that has to be met for a referendum to pass.
    • First, a majority of formal votes across the country (including in the territories) would need to be “yes” votes.

What happens if the referendum passes or fails?

    • If the referendum passes, it is then sent to the governor-general, who gives assent to it.
    • Once that happens, the amendment to the Constitution is made.

How do the 'yes' and 'no' cases stack up? Constitutional law experts take a look

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Anticipating the referendum, the Australian Electoral Commission has started to post to every voter the official “yes” and “no” cases.

Key Points: 
  • Anticipating the referendum, the Australian Electoral Commission has started to post to every voter the official “yes” and “no” cases.
  • These cases were approved by the politicians who voted in favour of, or against, the amendment in parliament.
  • They have not been subject to an independent fact check or analysis before publication.
  • As members of the Gilbert + Tobin Centre of Public Law and the Indigenous Law Centre, we have spent the past few weeks carefully reviewing the substantive claims made in the official “yes” and “no” cases.

'No' to the Voice takes lead in Essential poll; huge swing to Libs at WA state byelection

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, August 9, 2023

While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.

Key Points: 
  • While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.
  • Here is an updated graph that I first published in July of Voice polls from Essential, Newspoll, Resolve and Morgan (which hasn’t conducted a Voice poll since May).

Labor’s voting intention lead increases in Essential

    • In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor led by 52–42, an increased margin from a 50–45 lead last fortnight.
    • This term Essential polls have been better for the Greens than other polls.
    • This is the Greens’ equal lowest primary vote in Essential, tying 12% in March.

Morgan poll and seat entitlements

    • In this week’s Morgan weekly federal poll, conducted July 31 to August 6 from a sample of 1,391, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week.
    • After four successive moves to the Coalition had reduced Labor’s lead from 57–43 to 52–48, Labor has made two successive gains.
    • Read more:
      Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains

Labor holds WA Rockingham byelection easily despite huge swing to Libs

    • At the July 29 byelection for former WA Labor premier Mark McGowan’s seat of Rockingham, Labor defeated the Liberals by 65.2–34.8, a huge 22.5% swing to the Liberals since the 2021 WA election.
    • On the distribution of preferences, Edwards overtook the Liberals as minor candidates were excluded, and the seat finished as a contest between Labor and Edwards, with Labor winning by 61.4–38.6.
    • While this was a huge swing, there are extenuating circumstances for Labor.
    • Analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor’s two party percentage in Rockingham at this byelection exceeded Rockingham results at three general elections that Labor won with an incumbent MP.
    • The byelection suggests that Labor is still well ahead statewide against the Liberals, in contrast to a recent WA poll that gave the Liberals a 54–46 lead.

Politics with Michelle Grattan: Battle of the Voice – Greens senator Dorinda Cox & Liberal senator Kerrynne Liddle

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, July 20, 2023

In this podcast, we talk with two Indigenous senators, The Greens’ Dorinda Cox, and Liberal Kerrynne Liddle.

Key Points: 
  • In this podcast, we talk with two Indigenous senators, The Greens’ Dorinda Cox, and Liberal Kerrynne Liddle.
  • Cox is campaigning for the Voice, while Liddle does not believe a Voice will achieve the practical outcomes those in favour are championing.
  • Cox, from Western Australia, believes a Voice will deliver more and better practical results for First Nations peoples compared to the former Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC).
  • She would rather see an Indigenous Voice legislated, with the “executive government” clause removed.

The campaign pamphlets for the Voice don't offer new perspectives. Do they still serve a purpose?

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, July 18, 2023

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has published the “yes” and “no” pamphlets for the Voice to Parliament on its website.

Key Points: 
  • The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has published the “yes” and “no” pamphlets for the Voice to Parliament on its website.
  • The passage of the Voice to Parliament constitutional amendment bill triggered a 28-day period for written arguments for and against the proposed change to the Constitution.
  • Australian parliamentarians have provided their “yes” and “no” arguments for the Voice, which have been published online with no fact-checking by the AEC.

History of the “yes” and “no” pamphlets

    • In 1911, two questions were posed to the Australian public at a referendum separate to a general election.
    • The questions were whether to extend the Commonwealth’s powers over trade and commerce and give the Commonwealth the ability to make laws in respect to powerful corporations.
    • So, the following year, the government sought to send every elector a document that explained proposed constitutional changes from the “yes” and “no” sides.

The Voice to Parliament pamphlet – what is in it?

    • “No” Pamphlet: “if you don’t know, vote no” The “no” pamphlet for the Voice to Parliament uses a lot of strong, emotion-invoking language and contains potential misinformation.
    • For instance, the pamphlet includes the recurring claim the Voice is “legally risky”, despite legal experts disproving this.
    • “Yes” Pamphlet: “voting no means nothing will change” The “yes” pamphlet has reiterated a lot of key points already made by the campaign.
    • Read more:
      10 questions about the Voice to Parliament - answered by the experts

Is it time to move away from “yes/no” pamphlets?

    • In the past, concerns have been raised about the referendum pamphlet as a way of communicating with voters because it is not examined for accuracy.
    • As UNSW constitutional law expert George Williams warns,
      Australians must be cautious when reading these pamphlets.
    • Instead, they reiterate arguments for the “yes” and “no” sides by repeating what Australians have heard for the past 12 months.

Expertise v 10-point arguments: how the 'yes' and 'no' camps have sold their messages

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, July 18, 2023

So who is the target audience for each case, what are their key messages, and how effective will they be?

Key Points: 
  • So who is the target audience for each case, what are their key messages, and how effective will they be?
  • When I look at the “yes” and “no” case pamphlets, there are aspects of each that stand out.

Battle of the pamphlets

    • Moreover, many are recognisable names, such as Rachel Perkins, Patrick Dodson, and Eddie Betts.
    • Their likeability and familiarity also helps put the point across to readers in a more compelling way.
    • Like the “yes” case, the “no” case substitutes the real question voters are being posed with another, more straightforward one.
    • So, voters will ask themselves if the experts possess the expertise needed to provide the advice to vote “yes”.

The case for ‘yes’

    • Understanding a subject and knowing what you are doing – that is, competence – enhances your credibility.
    • The case concerned a company suspected of having exposed its workforce to carcinogenic chemicals.
    • In this case, where the arguments put forward were difficult to understand, it was his expertise as a professor that proved decisive.
    • It is hardly surprising, then, that experts are used in the “yes” case.

The case for ‘no’

    • In other words, the authors of the “no” case assume voters do not know how to judge whether the Voice will be a good or a bad thing, and may not consider much other information than this particular pamphlet.
    • You can test this yourself at work by making a simple request to people queuing to use a photocopier:
      Excuse me, I have five pages – may I use the photocopier?
    • Excuse me, I have five pages – may I use the photocopier?
    • In that case, almost everybody accedes.

Yes/No cases for referendum pamphlet released, as Albanese urges greater effort from yes advocates

Retrieved on: 
Monday, July 17, 2023

The yes and no cases have been prepared by advocates on each side.

Key Points: 
  • The yes and no cases have been prepared by advocates on each side.
  • The yes case declares the proposed change to the constitution is about recognition, listening and results.
  • “If you don’t know, vote no.” Albanese indicated a campaign of five to six weeks would be appropriate.
  • The pamphlet’s yes case says listening to Indigenous Australians “will mean better results – and better value for money”.
  • “Vote yes to help close the gap.” Voting yes means “becoming reconciled with our past and moving to a better future”.
  • The latest poll found the yes case doing particularly badly among women (38%) and those in the regions (31%).
  • Albanese is putting his faith in people becoming more inclined to vote yes when they focus once the campaigning intensifies.