Leonello d'Este, Marquis of Ferrara

The safe asset potential of EU-issued bonds

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, January 21, 2023

The lack of euro-denominated safe assets and the fragmentation of the market are problematic.

Key Points: 
  • The lack of euro-denominated safe assets and the fragmentation of the market are problematic.
  • In the absence of a supranational euro-denominated safe asset, a flight to safety would entail capital flowing out of vulnerable countries and into safe havens.
  • Both initiatives were proposed in the context of the EU’s response to the recession in the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
  • As of December 2021, the amount of outstanding EU bonds had grown to €215 billion in total.
  • The first SURE bonds were issued in October 2020, while the first NGEU bonds were issued in June 2021.
  • By 2028 NGEU volumes are foreseen to reach €800 billion, more than twelve times the level in December 2021.
  • Including the approved funding for other smaller programmes, the total available amount of EU bonds is set to exceed €1 trillion by 2028.
  • This stability of EU yield spreads does not mean that EU bonds will automatically become a supranational euro-denominated safe asset.
  • A safe asset is traded in liquid markets.
  • Market liquidity ensures that investors can sell their asset at any time without causing a major change in the market price.
  • (2022) we also argue that a safe asset’s market liquidity should be sufficiently high to accommodate central banks’ monetary policy operations.
  • Finally, the perception of EU bonds as safe assets also hinges on the continuation of their favourable regulatory treatment.
  • For such an instrument to be viable, a deep and liquid repo market would need to evolve first.