Brexit

House of Commons Library

Planning for a no deal Brexit

• After Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in July 2019 the Government intensified planning for a no deal Brexit and stressed its intention to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October with or without a deal.
• A no deal Brexit however remains the default outcome if an agreement is not ratified.
• This briefing paper provides an overview of Government and EU preparations for a no deal Brexit, and of recent reports analysing the possible impact of this outcome

Brexit developments: The Johnson Government

• Following the passage of the Act, the Government continued to insist that the UK would leave the EU on 31 October.
• The Government pressed ahead with its attempts to ratify the revised Withdrawal Agreement, introducing the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill.
• The Government then said it was intensifying its planning for a no deal Brexit on 31 October.
• The Government suspended its planning for an imminent no deal Brexit.
• In the absence of UK and EU ratification of a withdrawal agreement, a no deal Brexit remains the default scenario unless the UK revokes the Article 50 notice.

No deal planning under Theresa May’s Government

• Theresa Mays Government stepped up planning for a no deal Brexit in the summer of 2018, beginning the publication of detailed no deal guidance.
• In December 2018, the Government said it would be implementing its no deal plans in full.
• The Government planning included increased funding for a no deal scenario, within the 4.2 billion allocated for planning for all Brexit scenarios.

No deal planning under Boris Johnson’s Government

• After taking over as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said that the Government would be turbo-charging no deal Brexit preparations.
• The preparations included new Government committees to oversee the process, and an additional 2.1 billion in funding to prepare for a no deal Brexit on 31 October.
• Preparations involved automatic registering of businesses for customs purposes, and adjustments to the already announced temporary tariff regime in the event of a no deal Brexit.
• In addition, the Government launched the Get Ready for Brexit advertising campaign, providing 100 million to fund the campaign.
• The Governments preparations were summarised in the No Deal Readiness report published on 8 October.
• The Government was also laying the final statutory instruments to ensure all critical Brexit-legislation was in place for exit day.

EU no deal preparations

• There would also be compensation for EU27 fisherman hit by a no deal Brexit.
• In July 2019, the EU adopted a regulation enabling continued funding to the UK from EU programmes in 2019 provided the UK continues to contribute to the EU budget and follows EU rules.
• The EU has ruled out mini deals with the UK in the event of no deal, instead focusing on unilateral measures to provide for continuity in some areas.
• In a no deal scenario decisions on the rights of UK citizens in EU Member States will fall to the Member States themselves.

UK disengagement from the EU

• Along with increasing its no-deal preparations, Boris Johnsons Government reduced the UK presence in EU institutions and decision-making.
• It announced that there would no longer be a UK presence at some EU meetings.
• Since July, the UK has abstained in all but one vote in the Council of the EU.
• The outgoing European Commission, including the UK Commissioner Sir Julian King, currently remains in office in a caretaker capacity.

Recent ‘no deal’ analysis

• Reports have been published by a range of organisations since July 2019 on the possible impact of a no deal Brexit.
• This also includes Government reports (some leaked to the press) and reports from other public bodies and prominent organisations.
• The Government published a version of the report in September after being required to do so by a Commons motion.
• A HMRC report in October said additional administrative burdens for UK-EU trade would cost UK businesses 7.5 billion a year.
• The Office for Budget Responsibility said in July that public borrowing in a no deal scenario would be double what it would be if the UK left the EU with an agreement.



Commons Briefing papers CBP-8733