F13

The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain reorientation

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Saturday, February 10, 2024
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We analyse the macroeconomic

Key Points: 
    • We analyse the macroeconomic
      effects of supply chain reorientation through localisation policies, using a global dynamic
      general equilibrium model.
    • While arguments about comparative advantage, the potential forgone benefits of international specialisation and industry- and product-specific disruptions are familiar, there is less
      analysis on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain changes resulting from localisation policies.
    • The large sensitivity of the global economy to the recent supply chain shocks suggests that
      the international trade reconfiguration implied by localisation policies could also have sizable
      impacts on key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment and inflation.
    • Thus, localisation focuses on the
      goods in our model most closely related to global supply chains.
    • Retaliation also attenuates any positive effects from
      reshoring on output and implies a reduction in the volume of overall international trade.
    • This finding calls for limiting the scope of reshoring, such as by focusing on vital goods that are
      most susceptible to supply chain disruptions.
    • Either that, or the economic costs are considered a worthwhile trade-off for an increase
      in security of supply, for example.
    • While arguments about comparative advantage, the potential forgone benefits of international specialisation and industry- and product-specific disruptions are familiar, there is less
      analysis on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain changes resulting from localisation policies.
    • Recent supply chain shocks have had large effects, with disruptions in 2021 estimated
      to have reduced euro area GDP by around two percent and doubled the rate of manufacturing producer inflation (Celasun et al., 2022).
    • To analyse this issue, we simulate a (partial) reshoring of production back to Europe in
      a global dynamic general equilibrium framework.
    • Thus,
      localisation focuses on the goods in our model most closely related to global supply chains.3 We
      model reshoring through a direct change to the export goods? production-function parameters.
    • Since reshoring
      effectively shortens the supply chain, the sum of markups along the chain falls.
    • This means that imports that are at the end of the supply chain (i.e.
    • In particular, our work relates to papers examining the potential for countries to reduce
      their exposure to global supply chains.
    • (2021) demonstrate that reduced reliance on foreign inputs does not mitigate pandemicinduced contractions in labour supply.
    • (2021) find no evidence of a relationship
      between global value chain integration and macroeconomic volatility.
    • This dynamic, along with factors such as natural disasters, climate-change
      induced volatility and terrorism mean that supply chain disruptions could be a new normal
      (Grossman et al., 2021).
    • Our work contributes to the literature providing dynamic general equilibrium analyses of
      protectionist policies, in particular those using global macroeconomic models to quantify trade
      policy changes.
    • (2008) analyse the effect of a rise in protectionism in response
      to rising global trade imbalances.
    • Linde? and Pescatori (2019) find that although the macroeconomic costs of a
      trade war are substantial, a fully symmetric retaliation is the best response.
    • (2020) consider a rich input-output structure and demonstrate that closer integration amplifies
      the adverse effects of protectionist trade policies.
    • Several recent studies have also examined the economic effects of a global trade fragmentation.
    • First, we modify a dynamic general
      equilibrium model of the global economy in order to analyse the transmission of localisation
      policies.
    • This allows for a comprehensive treatment of cross-border macroeconomic interdependences and spillovers between the different regions.
    • 4

      There is, however, substantial cross-country heterogeneity in terms of impact, with small open economies
      (SOEs) reliant on global supply chains more affected.

    • ECB Working Paper Series No 2903

      7

      Second, we are able to assess both long-run effects and the transition dynamics of localisation
      policies.

    • Our model contains a detailed monetary block and captures inflation dynamics, which is a key
      concern for supply chain reorientation.
    • Overall, our paper contains a careful analysis of the key aspects of the localisation debate,
      including effects of localisation on domestic competition and efficiency.
    • Section 2 provides a brief overview of the model, the modifications to examine
      global supply chain reorientation, some key details on the calibration and a brief discussion of
      the nature of our exercise.
    • (2020) for discussions of the relative strengths and weaknesses of
      trade and macroeconomic models in assessing large economic shocks.
    • 2.1

      Supply chain reorientation

      Our analysis focuses on imported inputs used to produce goods for export, as the introduction
      of localisation policies is in response to recent disruptions to global supply chains.

    • Since reshoring
      effectively shortens the supply chain, the sum of markups along the chain falls.
    • Further to
      these effects, engagement with global firms provides an opportunity for knowledge spillovers to
      local firms (Criscuolo et al., 2017).
    • This finding calls for limiting the scope of reshoring, such as by focusing on vital goods that are
      most susceptible to supply chain disruptions.
    • (B12)

      Adjusting the share of local inputs in export goods, of course, affects prices and quantities all
      along the supply chain.

William Ells Begins Term as 2023 ASTM International Board Chair

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, January 5, 2023

W. CONSHOHOCKEN, Pa., Jan. 5, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- William A. Ells, vice president of sales at Vibram USA (North Brookfield, Massachusetts, USA), has started his term as the 2023 chair of the ASTM International board of directors.

Key Points: 
  • W. CONSHOHOCKEN, Pa., Jan. 5, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- William A. Ells, vice president of sales at Vibram USA (North Brookfield, Massachusetts, USA), has started his term as the 2023 chair of the ASTM International board of directors.
  • ASTM International's board is made of 25 leaders from a variety of companies, associations, universities, government bodies, and other organizations around the world.
  • He previously worked in sales at American Biltrite Inc. and Quabaug Corp.
    An ASTM International member since 1998, Ells is a member of the pedestrian/walkway safety and footwear committee (F13).
  • In addition to ASTM International, Ells is a member of the board of the American Apparel and Footwear Association.

MEA Forensic Engineers & Scientists are Proud to Announce 3 New Owners

Retrieved on: 
Friday, September 23, 2022

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Key Points: 
  • "They are truly inspiring people, and I trust them to look after MEA Forensic."
  • They are truly inspiring people, and I trust them to look after MEA Forensic.
  • MEA Forensic Engineers & Scientists is a multi-disciplinary forensic investigations firm.
  • Having worked on over 50,000 cases and published 250 scientific studies over the last 40 years, MEA Forensic sets the standard for high-quality forensic engineering and science.