Democratic Alliance

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa aims for upbeat tone in annual address, but fails to impress a jaundiced electorate

Retrieved on:

Saturday, February 10, 2024

The country goes to the polls any time between May and August and there was no doubt that Cyril Ramaphosa would use the occasion to burnish the governing African National Congress’s reputation.

Key Points:

The country goes to the polls any time between May and August and there was no doubt that Cyril Ramaphosa would use the occasion to burnish the governing African National Congress’s reputation.
Numerous opinion polls suggest the ANC will fall below 50% of the vote nationally for the first time, providing opportunities for opposition coalitions.
A party needs to win 50% or more of the seats in parliament to form a government on its own.
In his 105-minute address Ramaphosa tried to remind his audience of the government’s achievements over the past three decades of democracy.

The contested record

Poverty: In 1994 71% of South Africa’s population lived in poverty; today 55% do, he said, citing World Bank figures.
Employment: The president devoted paragraphs of his speech to job opportunities created by various government programmes.
Real unemployment – the expanded definition – is around 42%, up from 15% in 1994.
Energy: On the continuing power cuts Ramaphosa pledged that
the worst is behind us and an end to load-shedding is in reach.
But evidence shows land reform has a mixed record of successes and failures.
Health: the president spoke of a new academic hospital under construction in Limpopo province.

What was left unsaid

In one ill-advised one in 2019, the president fantasised about bullet trains, when his audience were desperately waiting for the resumption of service on slow train commuting routes.
The 2024 speech offers fertile material for opposition parties to score points against the ANC.
It will be more of the same from both sides all the way to voting day.

Keith Gottschalk is a member of the African National Congress, but writes this piece in his professional capacity as a political scientist.

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s aims for upbeat tone in annual address, but fails to impress a jaundiced electorate

Retrieved on:

Friday, February 9, 2024

Numerous opinion polls suggest the ANC will fall below 50% of the vote nationally for the first time, providing opportunities for opposition coalitions.

Key Points:

Numerous opinion polls suggest the ANC will fall below 50% of the vote nationally for the first time, providing opportunities for opposition coalitions.
A party needs to win 50% or more of the seats in parliament to form a government on its own.
Adding to the moment was the fact that this was the last state of the nation address of Ramaphosa’s term.
In his 105-minute address Ramaphosa tried to remind his audience of the government’s achievements over the past three decades of democracy.

The contested record

Poverty: In 1994 71% of South Africa’s population lived in poverty; today 55% do, he said, citing World Bank figures.
Employment: The president devoted paragraphs of his speech to job opportunities created by various government programmes.
Real unemployment – the expanded definition – is around 42%, up from 15% in 1994.
Energy: On the continuing power cuts Ramaphosa pledged that
the worst is behind us and an end to load-shedding is in reach.
But evidence shows land reform has a mixed record of successes and failures.
Health: the president spoke of a new academic hospital under construction in Limpopo province.

What was left unsaid

In one ill-advised one in 2019, the president fantasised about bullet trains, when his audience were desperately waiting for the resumption of service on slow train commuting routes.
The 2024 speech offers fertile material for opposition parties to score points against the ANC.
It will be more of the same from both sides all the way to voting day.

Keith Gottschalk is a member of the African National Congress, but writes this piece in his professional capacity as a political scientist.

South Africa’s ANC marks its 112th year with an eye on national elections, but its record is patchy and future uncertain

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

The annual January 8 statement, unsurprisingly, was a 30 year self-assessment and is self-congratulatory.

Key Points:

The annual January 8 statement, unsurprisingly, was a 30 year self-assessment and is self-congratulatory.
He pointed out that the ANC had, over its 30 years in power, put in place the building blocks of a social democratic state.

a constitution that guarantees human rights to all South Africans and is much admired around the world
protecting workers’ rights, promoting investment and economic development and providing a legal framework for black economic empowerment
an active role for South Africa on the international stage, and solidarity with people struggling for their rights and striving for a just world order.
Assuming the moral high ground by supporting the cause of Palestine was a reminder of the ANC that once won the hearts of many South Africans and international supporters: principled and standing up for justice, as it had done in the struggle against apartheid. Ramaphosa highlighted the oft-repeated statistics reflecting “delivery” by the ANC-led government since 1994:
4.7 million houses have been built and provided “mahala” (for free) to South Africans, including houses allocated to nearly 2 million women
89% of households now have access to water and 85% have access to electricity
more than 28 million people are beneficiaries of social grants aimed at alleviating poverty.

But the ANC stood resolute in addressing the stubborn legacy of colonialism, apartheid and patriarchy.
Read more:
Factionalism and corruption could kill the ANC -- unless it kills both first
Not much was said about these mistakes.

Despair and frustration

The perception that South Africa has been unsuccessful in the fight against corruption has dented the country’s image, and lessened its international leverage and stature.
Read more:
Book predicts ANC’s last decade of political dominance in South Africa
There is a mood of despair over high levels of crime and violence.
There is also widespread frustration over crumbling infrastructure and poor service delivery.
The largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has struck a deal with like-minded parties in the hope of unseating the ANC.

Wooing young voters

The 2024 general election may become the battle for the soul of the young voter.
If that is the case, then the ANC needs a fresh image, one less reliant on its history as a liberation movement.
He acknowledged the positive role of the youth in society, and commended the ANC Youth League for their inputs in shaping the statement.

beneficiation of raw materials
reindustrialisation of the economy
the energy crisis
the climate crisis
the quality of public services.
These items are already on the ANC’s policy programme being implemented in government. So if the party had been more astute, the January 8 statement could have indicated, especially to its younger constituency, what would be done differently this time round. As it is, these items also feature high on the list of priorities of other political parties, including those formed in recent months.

Bravado amid disillusionment

The ANC, through its January 8 statement, put on a show of bravado.
However, it would be foolhardy of it to ignore the fact that the political terrain has shifted.
Even long-serving members within its ranks have become disillusioned with the party, as evidenced by the recent resignation of ANC veteran Mavuso Msimang, who later retracted his decision.

Sandy Africa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Kawkki Korean Flaming Chicken Ignites IOI Mall Puchong with a Sizzling Korean Culinary Spectacle

Retrieved on:

Monday, September 25, 2023

KFC, IOI Mall Puchong, YB, History, Malaysian United Democratic Alliance, Cheese, Democratic Alliance, Spice, Restaurant

PUCHONG, SELANGOR MALAYSIA, Sept 25, 2023 - (ACN Newswire) - The culinary world of Malaysia is about to get a spicy kick with the grand opening of Kawkki Korean Flaming Chicken ("Kawkki") yesterday's afternoon.

Key Points:

PUCHONG, SELANGOR MALAYSIA, Sept 25, 2023 - (ACN Newswire) - The culinary world of Malaysia is about to get a spicy kick with the grand opening of Kawkki Korean Flaming Chicken ("Kawkki") yesterday's afternoon.
Situated in the bustling IOI Mall Puchong, Kawkki aims to be more than just another restaurant.
Kawkki takes pride in its expansive and carefully curated menu that bridges the gap between traditional favourites and cutting-edge culinary innovations.
As for future plans, Kawkki Korean Flaming Chicken is already eyeing expansion opportunities in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor.

Zuma prison case casts doubt on South Africa's medical parole law

Retrieved on:

Friday, August 11, 2023

In short, his parole tested the buoyancy of the law in facilitating the medical release of offenders without political or other interference.

Key Points:

In short, his parole tested the buoyancy of the law in facilitating the medical release of offenders without political or other interference.
The SCA had found that Zuma was unlawfully granted medical parole against the advice of the Medical Parole Advisory Board.
Less than two months after his admission to prison, he was released on medical parole.
And the time he was out of prison on medical parole should not have been counted as time served.
Medical parole in South Africa is governed by Section 79 of the Correctional Services Act, together with Regulation 29A of the Correctional Services Regulations.

The process and gaps in law

The board comprises ten medical practitioners, who must provide an independent medical report to the commissioner.
Unfortunately, the law does not require the board to offer such guidance.
These gaps in the law are exacerbated by the omission to specify whether the commissioner has the power to ignore the recommendation of the board, as in Zuma’s application.
While they may all seem relevant in assessing future criminality, there is no indication as to how they should be weighed up.
This is a task which should involve clinical evaluations by forensic psychiatrists, but the legislation does not require this.

Unfortunate omission

For example, if an offender is lawfully released on medical parole, but their health improves or even if they are cured, they cannot be forced to return to prison.
It is unfortunate that the Supreme Court of Appeal referred this question back to the Department of Correctional Services – the very department that flagrantly violated the law.

South Africa's ANC controls eight of nine provinces - why the Western Cape will remain elusive in the 2024 elections

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, August 1, 2023

The African National Congress (ANC), which governs South Africa, finally held its postponed Western Cape provincial elective congress in June.

Key Points:

The African National Congress (ANC), which governs South Africa, finally held its postponed Western Cape provincial elective congress in June.
The new executive is the first elected ANC Western Cape provincial executive in six years.
By history and demography, the ANC in the Western Cape faces tougher challenges than anywhere else in the country.
A majority of coloured voters vote against the ANC, and in the Western Cape coloured voters constitute a majority of the electorate.
The coloured majority of the Western Cape electorate has ensured that the ANC has never won an absolute majority in that province.

Challenges and own goals

These were liberal activists and veterans committed to nonracialism.
But in the rural Western Cape, today’s DA branches are based upon the renamed National Party branches of the 20th century.
The first ANC Western Cape chair after 1994 was the respected Chris Nissen, a trilingual clergyman (speaking isiXhosa, English and Afrikaans) from the Presbyterian church.
Simultaneously, nationwide, the ANC Youth League was disbanded, and the ANC Women’s League very little in evidence.

Bottoming out?

The newly elected Western Cape provincial executive committee balances Africans such as Tyhalisisu and Ayanda Bam with coloureds such as Neville Delport, Sharon Davids and Derek Appel.
Next year’s general elections will show how far these measures have changed ANC fortunes in the Western Cape.

South Africa's ruling party is performing dismally, but a flawed opposition keeps it in power

Retrieved on:

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Government, Economic Freedom Fighters, DA, ANC, Lead, Democracy, Data, Democratic Alliance, African National Congress, EFF, Politics, African

If the party avoids a defeat, it could lead to a coalition government.

Key Points:

If the party avoids a defeat, it could lead to a coalition government.
It’s only logical to expect that governance failures of this magnitude would send large numbers of dissatisfied voters into the arms of opposition parties.
But as scholars who have studied South African voter behaviour for decades, we warn opposition parties that they cannot count on disillusionment to drive voters towards them.

Decline in ANC support and voter turnout

Read more:
South Africa's 2019 poll showed dangerous signs of 'insiders' and 'outsiders'
The decline in ANC election-day support over the same period has been far more modest.
The second trend relates to voter turnout.
We believe that this drop in voter turnout helps the ANC stay in power despite its dismal governance record.
The sharp downward trend in turnout is intimately related to the much more modest downward trend in ANC support.

Opposition failures

Of these, 49% gave this credit to the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), and 46% gave it to the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the third largest party.
Just 26% rated any opposition leader more favourably than ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa.
Unless opposition parties do something drastically different, dissatisfied voters are likely to boycott elections rather than switch to another party.

No viable alternative

Read more:
South Africa has changed its electoral law, but a much more serious overhaul is needed
These arguments capture parts of the larger picture.
Our analysis, however, points a finger at the opposition parties and the role they play in sustaining the ANC’s dominance.
But, for that to happen, they must see one or more opposition parties, or their leading candidates, as an effective or legitimate alternative.

Namibia and South Africa's ruling parties share a heroic history - but their 2024 electoral prospects look weak

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

This underscored the ANC’s historic ties to Namibia’s governing party, South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo).

Key Points:

This underscored the ANC’s historic ties to Namibia’s governing party, South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo).
As former liberation movements, we learn from one another, a manifestation of the deep bonds of solidarity formed during our struggle against oppression.
In our view, the nostalgic reminiscences of the parties’ days as liberation movements serve as a heroic patriotic history turned into a form of populism.
Voters in South Africa and Namibia will in 2024 pass their verdict at the ballot boxes.

History with lasting bonds

South African-Namibian relations have a special history.
After the first world war, the Treaty of Versailles officially ended the war between Germany and the Allied powers.
It turned the German colony South West Africa into a C-mandate of the new League of Nations.

From liberation movements to governments

Released only weeks earlier from prison, Nelson Mandela attended the ceremony as the celebrated guest of honour.
Apartheid in South Africa came officially to an end through the result of the first democratic elections in 1994.
It indicated the success of the democratic settlements in both countries that Swapo and the ANC led processes leading to the drawing up of final constitutions.
Crucially, however, the parliaments dominated by Swapo and the ANC have failed to hold governments to account on major issues.

Popularity in decline

Even this was regarded as a triumph, put down to the personal popularity of its latest leader, Cyril Ramaphosa.
In the run-up to the elections in 2024, surveys predict the ANC will lose its absolute majority, and be forced to form a coalition to remain in power.
It is also anticipated that it will lose its majority in several provinces.
But, their dominance is being steadily eroded by their lacklustre performance in power and failures in delivery of basic services.

2024 and the limits to liberation

While many assume that the ANC will lose its absolute majority, it has an uncanny ability to defy expectations.
Numerous analyses have explored how former liberation movements in southern Africa have failed the ideals of the liberation struggle when in power, even becoming undemocratic and increasingly corrupt.
Yet in southern Africa, liberation movements’ loss of popularity is combined with accusations that they have betrayed the promises of freedom.
After all, opposition parties have so far offered little if any credible alternatives which promise more well-being for the ordinary people.

How Imran Khan's populism has divided Pakistan and put it on a knife's edge

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Pakistan’s political crisis has worsened significantly since Khan lost a no-confidence motion in parliament and was ousted from power last April.

Key Points:

Pakistan’s political crisis has worsened significantly since Khan lost a no-confidence motion in parliament and was ousted from power last April.
Since then, Khan’s populist rhetoric has stoked divisions in society, leading to extreme polarisation and the violent reactions we’ve seen this week.

Khan takes on the military

Khan wanted the then-chief of the agency, General Faiz Hameed, to continue in the role, while the military wanted someone else.
The military establishment issued a statement accusing Khan of fabricating the allegations.
Read more:
Shooting of Imran Khan takes Pakistan into dangerous political waters

Graft allegations from the new government

Read more:
What's the dispute between Imran Khan and the Pakistan government about?
In the so-called “Toshakhana case”, the government accused Khan and his wife of corruption for illegally keeping gifts given to them by other countries.
The case refers to the Toshakhana department in the government responsible for storing expensive gifts given to public officials.
Although the government has tightly controlled the mainstream media, Khan’s party has reached its supporters through social media to stoke dissent.

Khan’s arrest sparks violence

Khan’s lawyers challenged the legality of the arrest, but the High Court upheld it.
Within hours of the arrest, party workers and supporters gathered in many major cities and began openly attacking key military buildings.
It is very likely the protests will continue – and with that, increasing levels of violence – until Khan is released.

South Africa votes in 2024: could a coalition between major parties ANC and EFF run the country?

Retrieved on:

Monday, April 24, 2023

This would mark a dramatic change from the current situation in which coalition governments have only been formed at local level.

Key Points:

This would mark a dramatic change from the current situation in which coalition governments have only been formed at local level.
The ANC lost its majorities in metropolitan councils in Gauteng and Nelson Mandela Bay.
One option that’s been talked about with increasing intensity is a coalition between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
(In the past, the ANC was also involved in provincial coalitions in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape .

The EFF

The EFF describes itself as a Marxist-Leninist party influenced by the thoughts of Frantz Fanon.
Towards the end of the term close to 2021, the EFF withdrew its cooperation from the DA coalition.
A similar tendency has recently emerged in KwaZulu-Natal province where the EFF and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) shared power in about 25 local governments, in some instances already since the 2016 elections.
Recently the EFF announced that they will withdraw from these coalition governments, and pair with the ANC to form new governments.

The EFF’s coalition strategy

The EFF’s strategy has been unpredictable most of the time.
The ANC would do the same in Johannesburg, and the DA control all the positions in Tshwane.

The latest ANC-EFF approach

What does the latest ANC-EFF approach tell us?
It is widely speculated that it is primarily confined to Gauteng, the country’s economic hub, and that the ANC’s provincial leaders, including Premier Panyaza Lesufi favour such an approach.
In the Gauteng provincial election in 2019, the ANC received a slim majority of only 50.12%.

A national coalition government

National government is primarily responsible for national policies.
The question is whether the ANC and EFF will be able to find each other in policy terms.
Take for example land ownership which is a policy priority for the EFF.

The challenge of power-sharing

So far, the EFF and ANC have avoided it in the case of top positions.
In Johannesburg and Tshwane, more recently, they have not nominated their own members for the positions of mayor and speaker but gave them to very small parties.
They have not yet been in a situation of sharing power to the satisfaction of both sides.