Congress needs to pass 12 funding bills in 11 days to avert a shutdown – here’s why that isn’t likely
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Tuesday, September 5, 2023
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Congress has just 11 days when it’s in session before the next federal fiscal year begins on Oct. 1, 2023.
Key Points:
- Congress has just 11 days when it’s in session before the next federal fiscal year begins on Oct. 1, 2023.
- And in that time, it will need to enact all 12 appropriation bills to ensure that government agencies and departments have funding to keep programs going – or face a potential government shutdown.
- This is due to the magnitude of the differences not only between the two parties but also between the House and Senate.
One down, many to go
- But just before the House broke for August recess, it passed one appropriation bill, for military construction.
- The problem is the military construction bill is traditionally the easiest to pass, as it is very small – this year it stood at US$19.1 billion in spending.
- This is substantially less than the largest bill, which is usually the Labor, Health, Human Services and Education bill.
Ideological impasse
- These will be vehemently opposed by Democrats and potentially create an impasse in negotiations.
- Another complicating factor is that, recently, the administration submitted to Congress a request for a $45 billion supplemental appropriation that includes $24 billion for the war in Ukraine.
- In the past, these measures would often be attached to either an individual appropriation bill or what is known as a continuing resolution.
- While, constitutionally, appropriation bills must start in the House, they have to be reconciled with whatever version the Senate passes.
A history of shutdowns
- This approach has been endorsed by the White House to give time to negotiate a permanent solution.
- But the Freedom Caucus has indicated it will oppose such a measure unless it can attach many of its ideological riders.
- Since the 1974 Budget Act, there have been 22 such gaps or shutdowns due to the inability of Congress to enact all the appropriation bills.
- This shutdown lasted 35 days – the longest in history.
A record shutdown?
- Politically, the Republicans received virtually nothing beneficial from the 1995 or 2018 shutdowns, and were in fact blamed for both.
- Similarly, Republicans received little in 2013 but also seemed to receive less blame.
- Congress has just 11 working days to pass these bills, and that seems virtually impossible, especially in the current political climate.
- I even wouldn’t rule out a much longer shutdown of a couple of months that exceeds the record 35 days during the Trump administration.