The Jeffersons

• The first batch of results produced a mix of anticipated as well as some surprising findings.
• This was particularly true for Gauteng province, the country’s economic engine, and its main city, Johannesburg.
• If its numbers are to be believed, Census 2022 and preliminary analysis shows astonishingly low population growth figures for Gauteng, and especially for Johannesburg.
• In this piece we discuss the dual concerns we have: the implications if indeed the growth of Johannesburg has slowed down significantly, and the veracity of the data.

Is Johannesburg stagnating?

• As the world’s largest producer of gold for over a century, Johannesburg has attracted economic opportunity seekers throughout its history.
• But it is reportedly growing at double Johannesburg’s rate, which means that it will already have overtaken Johannesburg as South Africa’s largest city.
• The census suggests that the white population of Johannesburg reduced by some 211,000 between 2011 and 2022, the Indian population by 49,000 and the coloured population by 18,000.
• Spatial tax data indicates that Johannesburg still offers more jobs than, say, Cape Town.

The veracity of the data

• This figure is worryingly double that for the last census.
• The undercount in many countries, both developed and developing, is often less than 5% so the results are arguably much more trustworthy.
• There are many anecdotes of people trying, but failing, to submit their census returns via StatsSA’s new online facility.
• In theory these problems should have been resolved through post enumeration sampling and adjustment.

What next

• It is still early days for analysis as we still await the intra-municipal data from Census 2022.
• Nevertheless, we have identified intriguing, and sometimes worrying, indications of shifting spatial patterns.
• And while reduced growth may seem to some as a positive trend, it could reflect a deep crisis in South Africa’s premier city.