CENTRAL JAVA

• Voters in the world’s third-largest democracy, Indonesia, have elected former army general Prabowo Subianto as its eighth president, despite his campaign being dogged by accusations of human rights violations and electoral fraud.
• According to the latest reliable polling, Prabowo – Indonesia’s defence minister – secured almost 60% of the votes in what is considered as the largest and most complex single-day election in the world.
• This will likely mean that there will be no second round.

• He first ran as the vice presidential candidate for Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDIP chairwoman, in the 2009 presidential election.
• It was after his 2019 election defeat that Prabowo accepted the offer of a job as Jokowi’s defence minister.
• In this year’s election Prabowo teamed up with Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, after a dispute between Jokowi and Megawati over their choice of candidates.

Jokowi’s factor

• The Prabowo-Gibran ticket was organised with substantial involvement from Jokowi throughout.
• Gibran was ruled eligible to stand as a vice-presidential candidate after the constitutional court, led by Jokowi’s brother-in-law Anwar Usman, overturned a requirement that the candidates must be at least 40 so that his 36-year-old son could run.

• Many declared that the election was no longer about continuing Jokowi’s legacy but about saving democracy.
• Three days before the election, a film exposing alleged electoral fraud involving Jokowi went viral.
• These ranged from distributing government funds to potential voters before the election to planting supporters in numerous key provinces.

What does this mean for Indonesia’s democracy?

• But it remains too early to make any judgements about any real democratic threat from the election.
• Baca juga:
  On election eve, all 3 of Indonesia's presidential candidates have troubling human rights records

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• It’s unlikely that Prabowo could have even achieved the runner’s up position had the election been held a year ago.
• And, importantly, the military does not necessarily support Prabowo.

Yohanes Sulaiman tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.

• There are three candidates running, alongside their vice presidential candidates.
• According to opinion polls, the favourite is Prabowo Subianto, leader of the Greater Indonesia Party (Gerindra), a populist and nationalist party he founded in 2008.
• Prabowo is the frontrunner, but it’s unclear whether he will win an absolute majority of votes in the first round.

By the numbers

Voters are also casting votes in parliamentary elections, which include:
580 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR), with more than 9,900 candidates
152 seats in the Regional Representative Council (DPD), designed to represent the regions, with around 670 candidates
and local parliaments in each of the 38 provinces and 416 districts.
In total, there are over 2,700 separate electoral contests being held for around 20,500 seats. All are the responsibility of Indonesia’s independent election commission (the Komisi Pemilihan Umum, or simply KPU) to administer impartially and efficiently.

Logistical nightmare

• The distance from Aceh in the west to Papua in the east is some 5,100 kilometres (3,200 miles), wider than the continental US.
• Read more:
  Cute grandpa or authoritarian in waiting: who is Prabowo Subianto, the favourite to win Indonesia's presidential election?
• To get an idea of the size of the task facing the KPU, let’s look at the presidential election first.
• And they must also make choices for three other chambers – in addition to the presidential vote.

An unglamorous, but remarkable democratic achievement

• So, how well has Indonesia done in this massive task of making democratic elections work?
• In a world where democracy seems increasingly under pressure, Indonesia has managed five peaceful and democratic transfers of power.
• In comparison to neighbouring states in Southeast Asia, where one-party dominance is widespread or democratic progress has been crushed under military coups, Indonesia stands out as a bastion of democratic politics.
• Given the strains placed on the United States’ long-established democracy in recent years, Indonesia’s achievement in making elections work should not go unnoticed.

Stephen Sherlock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• Indonesia’s General Elections Commission reports that as many as 204 million voters are enrolled for the election, with about 114 million of them under 40 years of age.
• Polls say the top issues for younger voters include unaffordable basic goods, lack of employment opportunities, high poverty rates, expensive health services and poor education quality and service.
• Meanwhile, there are concerns among many observers that Indonesia’s democracy has been backsliding in recent years.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy

• Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest economy but faces getting caught in what economists call the middle-income trap, where its wages are too high but productivity too low to be competitive.
• Its growing economic dependence on China and regional tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea have foreign policy observers and investors watching the election closely.

• Yet the election takes place against a backdrop of increasing democratic fragility.
• Baswedan and Pranowo support a market-based approach and a balanced approach between protecting national industries and fostering foreign investment.
• On one of the main issues of the day, the relocation of the capital city of Indonesia, Baswedan is the most critical of the candidates.
• He has vowed to review the project, but is unlikely to stop the move even if he wins, as the plan is already formalized into law.

Massive spending and vote buying

• While the presence of many candidates – for example, there are 300 in Jakarta alone, including celebrities and cabinet ministers from 17 parties, vying for 21 seats in the House of Representatives – could suggest a vibrant democracy, the massive spending among them increases the risk of vote buying.
• Furthermore, due to the current open-list proportional voting systems, candidates must compete against their party peers to win a seat.
• This system creates a fierce competition among candidates and increases the chance of vote buying.

Financial irregularities tied to election funding have also dogged parties across the political spectrum, leading the Association for Election and Democracy to cite a worrisome trend of citizens coming to see money politics as acceptable within a competitive democracy. The other challenge during the election campaign is the lack of accountability and transparency for campaign funding.

A slide toward autocracy

• A 2023 report by V-Dem Democracy Institute highlights several factors in its slide toward autocracy.
• Strategic election manipulation is another form of backsliding, encompassing a range of activity geared toward tilting the electoral playing field in favor of incumbents.
• While Widodo claims not to have intervened in the ruling, there is a clear benefit to his family.

Angguntari Ceria Sari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• Climate change has different impacts on men and women, especially in the Global South.
• In reality, women in the Global South countries also possess the abilities and strength to protect the environment.
• Read more:
  The Global South is on the rise – but what exactly is the Global South?

Women’s movements across the Global South

• Historically, women have played a big part in protecting the environment in Asian and South American countries.
• Testimonies from the Chipko movement and similar women’s movements in other countries were discussed at this conference.

Fighting for change in Mexico and Bolivia

• Besides the Chipko movement, there is a recent example from women in Zapotalito, a village within the Chacahua-Pastoría lagoon national park area in southern Mexico.
• The women of Zapotalito worked together to clean the natural canal in the Coaxaca mangrove area.
• It’s gained the support of thousands of people in Bolivia.

Indonesian fisherwomen’s leadership

• In Indonesia, fisherwomen in Central Java have been working to sustain their community amidst the climate change since 2020.
• Rising sea levels have increased flood risks in their neighbourhoods, forcing them to take action by engaging with policymakers, raising awareness and fundraising to build bridges.

Growing global recognition

• The global community increasingly recognises their efforts too.
• Since the 1990s, more international policies have emphasised gender as a crucial element in nature conservation and sustainable development.
• For example, the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development acknowledges the vital role of women in environmental management and development.

Better solutions through involving women

• Despite being disproportionately affected by environmental damages, women continue to demonstrate their resilience and knowledge in tackling climate change.
• These actions are fundamental in steering clear of oversimplifying the experiences of women across diverse countries.