Istanbul

• EP Today 9 May - Europe Day
  “This is Europe” debate with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
  From 10.30 to 12.00, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will discuss with MEPs his views on Europe’s challenges and future.
• Before the start of the debate, President Metsola will make a statement to mark Europe Day.
• President Metsola and Chancellor Scholz will hold a bilateral meeting at 10.05, followed by a press point at 10.20.
• During the debate, MEPs will outline their priorities concerning this reform, building on the resolution adopted in July 2021.

• On May 14, 2023, voters will go to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections, and in October, the country will celebrate the centennial of the Republic.
• As a professor of political science, I have analyzed Turkish politics for many years.
• The upcoming elections are truly historic because voters will choose which vision they prefer in the second centennial of Turkey – Erdoğan’s or Atatürk’s.

The presidential race

• Four candidates are running in the forthcoming presidential race.
• But public surveys suggest that it is a two-man race between President Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, founded by Atatürk.

Erdoğan and populist Islamism

• This included many Kurds, members of an ethnic minority in Turkey, who want cultural recognition and therefore resisted Turkish nationalism.
• By 2013, these groups succeeded in weakening Atatürkists’ grip on politics and the bureaucracy.
• On the contrary, he has wooed nationalists to his populist Islamist regime.
• And they share anti-Western attitudes, from promoting anti-Western conspiracy theories to proposing Turkey’s exit from NATO.

The Atatürkist alternative

• As the leader of the CHP, Kılıçdaroğlu represents the Atatürkist alternative to Erdoğan’s populist Islamism.
• Yet Kılıçdaroğlu has been an exception among the Atatürkist elite.
• To oversee the economy, Kılıçdaroğlu is reportedly eyeing two candidates – a former economy minister and a University of Pennsylvania finance professor.

Candidates’ advantages and hurdles

• Erdoğan will rely on aspects of the authoritarian administration he has built over the last two decades.
• But Erdoğan faces hurdles related to his authoritarian style, too, particularly the many discontented citizens his 20-year rule has produced.
• The ongoing economic crisis – with an inflation rate over 80% – is another hindrance to his reelection.
• And his vote could take a hit from the fallout of the recent earthquake that killed over 45,000 people in Turkey.

A global impact?

• An Erdoğan win will signal that the global rise of right-wing populists is still robust enough to dominate a leading Muslim-majority country.
• A victory for Kılıçdaroğlu, meanwhile, may be celebrated by democrats worldwide as a defeat of a populist Islamist leader, despite his control over the media and state institutions.

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