SEOUL

• South Korea’s parliamentary election of April 10, 2024, was widely seen as a referendum on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s first two years in office.
• With a relatively high turnout of 67%, voters handed Yoon’s conservative People’s Power Party defeat, with its share of the 300-seat National Assembly dropping from 114 to 108.

Growing domestic pressure

• Subsequently, Yoon’s government has seen key parts of its agenda for education, labor and pension reforms blocked.
• But the election saw the DP and other opposition parties amass 192 seats, just short of a veto-proof, two-thirds majority.
• Though Yoon retains veto power, there is now growing uncertainty over whether ruling PPP assembly members will continue defending the president’s actions if and when the two probes move forward.

A trickier foreign policy climate

• Under South Korea’s political system, the presidency has greater leeway in national security and foreign affairs than in domestic policy.
• As such, the Yoon government will likely continue its foreign policy of expanding trilateral partnerships with the U.S. and Japan, building ties with NATO and striving to be a “global pivotal” state in the Asia-Pacific region.
• The opposition might not directly stop Yoon from pursuing his foreign policy, but they are likely to pressure the president to pay attention to domestic political issues.
• If the Yoon government cannot demonstrate diplomatic successes, opposition parties are likely to frame his foreign policy as one-sided “subservient diplomacy.” Yoon has three years to show that his foreign policy has paid dividends; South Korea’s next presidential election is in the spring of 2027.

Jong Eun Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.