ASIA

• The United States announced a new military agreement with Papua New Guinea, the most populous Pacific island country, on May 22, 2023.
• The deal came shortly after U.S. President Joe Biden announced plans to visit the small island country – the first U.S. president ever to do so.
• However, continuing fraught budget negotiations in the U.S. led Biden to cancel his plans on May 17.
• China is not mentioned explicitly in the announcement of the deal, but we would be remiss in failing to note the connection.
• We are experts in U.S. security cooperation and recently published a book about U.S. overseas military deployments.

Papua New Guinea’s relevance

• Papua New Guinea is located on the eastern half of the island of New Guinea, about 90 miles north of Australia.
• Papua New Guinea has a long history of colonization.
• Australia then took over control of Papua New Guinea in the early 1900s.
• Papua New Guinea has also served as a strategic location for the U.S. in the past.
• Anyone with military access to Papua New Guinea could easily reach Australia, a key U.S. ally, by air or sea, with no need for refueling.

Who benefits from the deal

• What the U.S. gains from supporting a smaller country with a small military may not seem immediately obvious.
• But while Papua New Guinea is a small country, it is important from a geographical and diplomatic position, given its proximity to Indonesia, Australia and the Solomon Islands.
• When the U.S. gives military aid to another country, regardless of its wealth, that place generally tends to spend less on its own defense.
• In that case, the U.S. is exchanging money for Papua New Guinea to align its decisions with the U.S., instead of China.
• The U.S. gets a commitment from Papua New Guinea to make decisions that are more favorable to U.S. interests and less favorable to China.

US-China competition

• The U.S. and China are clearly engaged in competition with each other over military, political and economic might.
• The U.S. is arguably the dominant global power, but China’s strength and influence continue to rise across Asia and Africa, as it has been making military agreements with such countries as the Solomon Islands, Djibouti and Thailand.
• There have been several incidents that recently escalated tensions between the U.S. and China.
• One of these tension-raising events focused on the U.S. Air Force’s shooting down a Chinese balloon – allegedly used for spying – that flew across the U.S. in early 2023.

What’s next in the Pacific

• Michael A. Allen has previously received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative, the Department of Defense, and the Army Research Office.
• The views expressed here are the authors' only and do not represent the views of any outside funder.
• Carla Martinez Machain has previously received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative, the Department of Defense, and the Army Research Office.
• The views expressed here are the authors' only and do not represent the views of any outside funder.

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