Dependent and independent variables

• The median (middle) response was higher, but still below official estimates – an unemployment rate of 4%.
• Significantly, only two of the economists surveyed picked an unemployment rate of 5% or higher, which is where Australia’s unemployment rate has been for most of the past five decades.
• Australia’s unemployment rate dived to 3.5% in mid-2022 and has remained close to that long-term low since.
• Geopolitical events and climate change have probably pushed up the rate of inflation to be expected from any given domestic unemployment rate.

3.5% unemployment, yet falling inflation

• Craig Emerson, a former minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments, said NAIRU was best described as the lowest unemployment rate consistent with inflation not taking off.
• Given Australia’s inflation rate is now coming down, NAIRU is clearly below the present unemployment rate of 3.5%, he argued.
• This is the case at present, suggesting “full employment” means an unemployment rate of 3.5%.

Fix education, job-matching and childcare

• There was very little support for cutting immigration or the JobSeeker payment.
• The unemployed who would benefit the most would be those further down the queue who were the least successful in finding jobs.
• Another, Brian Dollery from the University of New England, said much of Australia’s unemployment had been generated by unemployment benefits that were too high.

• The last Essential Voice poll in June gave “yes” a 60–40 lead, in contrast to a 51–49 “no” lead from Resolve in a poll conducted at the same time.
• The trajectories of Resolve and Newspoll are similar, while Essential has been the most friendly pollster for “yes”.
• While Essential still has “yes” ahead, there is now a clear down trend in “yes” support in this poll.

Other Essential results: Labor leads by 51–44

• In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor led by 51–44 (52–42 last fortnight).
• This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Essential since March.

Be sceptical of claims of existential crises for current opposition parties

• But when the Coalition unexpectedly won the 2019 election, there were claims of an existential crisis for Labor.
• Internationally, there were claims of an existential crisis for United Kingdom Labour after the Conservatives won a clear majority at the UK 2019 election, but Labour is leading in current UK national polls by about 20 points.
• This is occurring despite the generational effects the CIS paper claims will damage the Coalition.

Last fortnight’s Essential poll

• In last fortnight’s Essential poll, voters were asked to rate Albanese, Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10.
• Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive.
• Relieving cost of living pressures had the highest score for not enough (75% not enough, 20% enough, 5% too much).

LNP leads in Queensland Freshwater poll

• An April YouGov Queensland poll gave the LNP a 51–49 lead, although Resolve still had Labor ahead, but Resolve has skewed to Labor federally and in state polls since the May 2022 federal election.
• Read more:
  Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls

  Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state.

• The Poll Bludger reported Sunday that “no” to the Voice led in this Queensland-only poll by 50–36 including undecided, or 58–42 excluding undecided.

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• Reiterated its goal to phase out unabated coal power generation consistent with a 1.5oC compatible future.
• In this year's Budget, Canada has committed historic clean-energy investments and tax credits supporting good paying jobs, affordability, and clean growth.
• – The Honourable Steven Guilbeault, Minister of Environment and Climate Change
  "Canada's G7 partners are also our biggest customers.
• – The Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources
  The G7 brings together Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union.