How will AI affect workers? Tech waves of the past show how unpredictable the path can be
The route to this economic transformation is through the workplace.
- The route to this economic transformation is through the workplace.
- The consulting firm McKinsey released its own study predicting an AI-powered boost of US$4.4 trillion to the global economy every year.
- But if the history of the future of work is any guide, we should be prepared for some surprises.
The IT revolution and the productivity paradox
- Said another way, higher productivity is expected to lead to higher wages.
- Generative AI products are capable of producing written, graphic and audio content or software programs with minimal human involvement.
- Professions such as advertising, entertainment and creative and analytical work could be among the first to feel the effects.
- Interestingly, productivity growth slowed in the 1970s and 1980s, coinciding with the introduction of computers and early digital technologies.
- Again, there were disagreements about what was really going on, further muddying the waters as to whether the paradox had been resolved.
Early 2000s: New slump, new hype, new hopes
- Yet labor productivity growth started stalling again in the mid-2000s, ticking up briefly in 2009 during the Great Recession, only to return to a slump from 2010 to 2019.
- AI and automation were becoming all the rage and were expected to transform work and worker productivity.
- AI and automation were projected to push productivity growth above 2% annually in a decade, up from the 2010-2014 lows of 0.4%.
The pandemic productivity push – then bust
- Devastating as the pandemic was, worker productivity surged after it began in 2020; output per hour worked globally hit 4.9%, the highest recorded since data has been available.
- Companies in industries ranging from meat processing to operations in restaurants, retail and hospitality invested in automation, such as robots and automated order-processing and customer service, which helped boost their productivity.
- In parallel, with little warning, “generative AI” burst onto the scene, with an even more direct potential to enhance productivity while affecting jobs – at massive scale.
Looking ahead: Social factors on technology’s arc
- Black and Hispanic workers are overrepresented in the 30 occupations with the highest exposure to automation and underrepresented in the 30 occupations with the lowest exposure.
- On top of that, recognition of the astronomical computing and environmental costs of generative AI could limit its development and use.
- Also, “jobs affected” does not mean jobs lost; it could mean jobs augmented or even a transition to new jobs.
- It’s better, in my view, to then proactively brainstorm the many factors that could affect which one actually comes to pass, look for early warning signs and prepare accordingly.
- The history of the future of work has been full of surprises; don’t be shocked if tomorrow’s technologies are equally confounding.