Donbas

Putin's Ukraine war keeps yielding dividends -- but not for him

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Within 24 hours, though, Prigozhin had aborted his march to Moscow and turned his troops around.

Key Points: 
  • Within 24 hours, though, Prigozhin had aborted his march to Moscow and turned his troops around.
  • But the damage to Putin’s strongman image and possibly his plans to subjugate Ukraine by force had been done.

From invasion to mutiny

    • Yet, Putin and his closest advisers believed that a Western-armed-and-allied Ukraine presented an existential threat to Russia’s great power ambitions.
    • And while Ukraine was not yet in NATO, Putin felt NATO was already in Ukraine.
    • Now, a weekend mutiny by Prigozhin and his mercenary force has further complicated Putin’s pursuit of the war.

Putin – Ukraine’s unlikely unifier

    • Putin proved to be the greatest contributor to Ukrainian nationalism since the 19th-century Ukrainian bard Taras Shevchenko.
    • And just as the Russian leader has, in important ways, strengthened Ukraine, he has weakened his own country.
    • After a fierce speech by Putin calling the mutineers traitors to the fatherland and promising harsh punishment, Prigozhin folded and agreed to go into exile in Belarus.

Cracks in the Russian state

    • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted the cracks in the Russian state but hesitated to predict what the future held.
    • The U.S. government held back from commenting further, not wanting to be associated with any connection to what had transpired in Russia.
    • Russians consider this an ancient patrimony of Russia, and any Russian government would be hard put to give the peninsula back to Ukraine.
    • Putin has managed to make Russia an international pariah, and it is difficult to imagine a secure international system that would include the current Russian regime.

US and NATO committed to Ukrainian victory

    • The United States and NATO are committed to a Ukrainian victory in the war and are willing to pay for it materially.
    • Whether that will mean formal membership in NATO is yet to be negotiated.
    • What has to be decided in the strategic calculations for a post-war settlement is how to manage Ukraine’s relationship with Russia.

From mutiny there may be resolution

    • With Russia weakened by the Prigozhin mutiny, Putin may be willing to rethink continuation of the war.
    • An immediate cease-fire could be declared as a first step toward negotiations and a compromise that could end the war.

Wagner's mutiny punctured Putin's 'strongman' image and exposed cracks in his rule

Retrieved on: 
Sunday, June 25, 2023

The departing Wagner troops were given a heroes’ send-off by some residents of Rostov-on-Don – the southern Russian town they had taken control over without firing shot earlier in the day.

Key Points: 
  • The departing Wagner troops were given a heroes’ send-off by some residents of Rostov-on-Don – the southern Russian town they had taken control over without firing shot earlier in the day.
  • The events of June 24 had observers searching for the right term to describe what was going on: Was this a coup attempt, a mutiny, an insurrection?
  • More radically, Prigozhin may have hoped that he would receive support from elements in the Russian military.

Putin’s impotence

    • Prigozhin’s abortive insurrection has punctured the “strongman” image of President Vladimir Putin, both for world leaders and for ordinary Russians.
    • Putin was forced to make a televised address at 10:00 a.m. local time on June 24 describing the revolt as a “stab in the back” and calling for harsh punishment of the mutineers.
    • But it was the intervention of Belarus President Lukashenko that brought about an end to the mutiny, not any words or actions from Putin.

Nationalist discontent

    • It is hard to imagine that his propagandists will be able to argue that Prigozhin is also a tool of the West.
    • Perhaps, also, Putin had come to believe his own propaganda: that nobody could be more nationalist than Putin himself, and that Russia and Putin were one and the same thing – echoing Presidential aide Vyacheslav Volodin’s 2014 comment “No Putin, no Russia”.
    • Certainly prior to the Wagner mutiny, there were growing winds of discontent among nationalists.
    • Prigozhin may now be in the Belarusian capital Minsk, where theoretically at least he can do less damage to Putin.

A lame duck president?

    • Prigozhin’s Wagner group was created with his blessing and promoted by the Russian president.
    • It was not until July 2022 that Wagner was officially acknowledged to be fighting in the Ukraine war.
    • But over the past six months, they have played an increasingly prominent role, and have been rewarded with praise in the Russian media.
    • But there can be no doubt that the aborted mutiny has exposed profound structural flaws in the Russian system of rule.

LANDMINE CHARITY CALLS FOR A 'MARSHALL PLAN FOR MINES' FOR UKRAINE

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, February 16, 2023

Open-source satellite imagery indicates there are minefields that stretch for hundreds of kilometres in the east and the south of the country.

Key Points: 
  • Open-source satellite imagery indicates there are minefields that stretch for hundreds of kilometres in the east and the south of the country.
  • One single fortified mine line runs 90km from the Russian border to north of the town of Lysychansk in the east.
  • A definitive and coordinated 'Marshall plan for mines' would be a clear call to action for the international community."
  • Brady Afrik, an open-source satellite analyst, has identified hundreds of km of Russian defensive fortifications in southern and eastern Ukraine.

LANDMINE CHARITY CALLS FOR A 'MARSHALL PLAN FOR MINES' FOR UKRAINE

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, February 16, 2023

Open-source satellite imagery indicates there are minefields that stretch for hundreds of kilometres in the east and the south of the country.

Key Points: 
  • Open-source satellite imagery indicates there are minefields that stretch for hundreds of kilometres in the east and the south of the country.
  • One single fortified mine line runs 90km from the Russian border to north of the town of Lysychansk in the east.
  • A definitive and coordinated 'Marshall plan for mines' would be a clear call to action for the international community."
  • Brady Afrik, an open-source satellite analyst, has identified hundreds of km of Russian defensive fortifications in southern and eastern Ukraine.

THE PREMISE POLL: MAJORITY OF UKRAINIANS BELIEVE THEY ARE WINNING THE WAR WITH RUSSIA, AND 8 IN 10 BELIEVE UKRAINE WILL RECLAIM ALL TERRITORY HELD BEFORE THE WAR

Retrieved on: 
Friday, June 3, 2022

SAN FRANCISCO, June 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Premise, the innovative platform that democratizes the way data is sourced, analyzed, and applied, recently surveyed 941 Ukrainian adult contributors about the ongoing war in Ukraine. Premise announced the results of that survey today, finding a high degree of confidence among Ukrainians about the outcome of the war.

Key Points: 
  • Premise announced the results of that survey today, finding a high degree of confidence among Ukrainians about the outcome of the war.
  • Here are some of the most significant findings:
    53% of Ukrainians feel that Ukraine is currently winning the war, and only 6% of Ukrainians feel that Russia is winning.
  • 34% think it will end with Ukraine regaining control of all territory it held before the war with no concessions to Russia.
  • 9% think that Ukraine will regain control of all territory it held before the war but makes non-territorial compromises to Russia.

"Polis Etica": Italian politicians and academic search for a peaceful solution for the conflict in the Eastern Ukraine

Retrieved on: 
Monday, December 6, 2021

The event has gathered politicians, academics, journalists and public activists to discuss 4 possible scenarios of further developments of Ukrainian external policies: Atlantic, European, Balanced, Independent.

Key Points: 
  • The event has gathered politicians, academics, journalists and public activists to discuss 4 possible scenarios of further developments of Ukrainian external policies: Atlantic, European, Balanced, Independent.
  • Vice-director of the "Eurasia" journal Stefano Vernole presented a complex overview of the current political situation in Ukraine and named lack of political will for peaceful conflict resolution as one of the key problems.
  • "The conflict can be settled peacefully, with no need for the government to bomb the region.
  • "A dialogue with EU leaders can be useful for Ukraine also to reach peace and settle the conflict with Russia," he added.