Putin's Ukraine war keeps yielding dividends -- but not for him
Within 24 hours, though, Prigozhin had aborted his march to Moscow and turned his troops around.
- Within 24 hours, though, Prigozhin had aborted his march to Moscow and turned his troops around.
- But the damage to Putin’s strongman image and possibly his plans to subjugate Ukraine by force had been done.
From invasion to mutiny
- Yet, Putin and his closest advisers believed that a Western-armed-and-allied Ukraine presented an existential threat to Russia’s great power ambitions.
- And while Ukraine was not yet in NATO, Putin felt NATO was already in Ukraine.
- Now, a weekend mutiny by Prigozhin and his mercenary force has further complicated Putin’s pursuit of the war.
Putin – Ukraine’s unlikely unifier
- Putin proved to be the greatest contributor to Ukrainian nationalism since the 19th-century Ukrainian bard Taras Shevchenko.
- And just as the Russian leader has, in important ways, strengthened Ukraine, he has weakened his own country.
- After a fierce speech by Putin calling the mutineers traitors to the fatherland and promising harsh punishment, Prigozhin folded and agreed to go into exile in Belarus.
Cracks in the Russian state
- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted the cracks in the Russian state but hesitated to predict what the future held.
- The U.S. government held back from commenting further, not wanting to be associated with any connection to what had transpired in Russia.
- Russians consider this an ancient patrimony of Russia, and any Russian government would be hard put to give the peninsula back to Ukraine.
- Putin has managed to make Russia an international pariah, and it is difficult to imagine a secure international system that would include the current Russian regime.
US and NATO committed to Ukrainian victory
- The United States and NATO are committed to a Ukrainian victory in the war and are willing to pay for it materially.
- Whether that will mean formal membership in NATO is yet to be negotiated.
- What has to be decided in the strategic calculations for a post-war settlement is how to manage Ukraine’s relationship with Russia.
From mutiny there may be resolution
- With Russia weakened by the Prigozhin mutiny, Putin may be willing to rethink continuation of the war.
- An immediate cease-fire could be declared as a first step toward negotiations and a compromise that could end the war.