University of Portsmouth

• Vladimir Putin spent a few pleasant hours this week with one of his friends and allies – an increasingly exclusive club these days.
• You can also subscribe to our fortnightly recap of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.
• But Ukraine has been using home-grown drones to attack targets in Russia and there are signs that sentiment is shifting.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: US and allies may supply longer-range missiles – how this would change the conflict

  Ukraine has been supplied with UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

• Read more:
  What BAE's Ukraine deal shows about the risks and opportunities of setting up a business in a war zone

Playing politics

• But the statement emerging from the world leaders in New Delhi stopped short of that.
• It said all states must refrain from acting against the territorial integrity of other states and rules that use of nuclear weapons was “inadmissible”.
• Jennifer Mathers, senior lecturer in international politics at Aberystwyth University, believes that this is a reflection of the growing clout of the global south, much of which sees climate change and inequality as more pressing issues than a war on the edge of Europe.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: Russian-held elections seek to normalise illegal occupation and reveal reality of a long war ahead

Competing narratives

• Reports from the front lines of the various conflict zones reveal daily just how difficult Ukraine is finding its summer counter-offensive.
• “The number of mines on the territory that our troops have retaken is utterly mad,” he told Ukrainian television this week.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: after two months of slow progress the long-awaited counteroffensive is picking up speed.

The trouble with the Wagner Group

• This is a 60-mile stretch of Polish territory on its border with Lithuania, linking Belarus with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
• Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko mischievously quipped to Vladimir Putin that he might not be able to control the Wagner mercenaries who, he said, were itching to “go west”.
• Natasha Lindstaedt, professor of international relations at the University of Essex with a special interest in non-state paramilitary groups, says that while Lukashenko was clearly joking, mercenary companies such as the Wagner Group are notoriously difficult to control.
• Read more:
  Wagner Group boss and Belarus's president are still manoeuvring for power

Scramble for Africa

• But what Putin may not be able to achieve through diplomacy in terms of influence in Africa, Russia’s Wagner Group proxies appear to be securing by propping up unstable regimes (and destabilising others) across west Africa.
• Read more:
  Russia-Africa summit: Putin offers unconvincing giveaways in a desperate bid to make up for killing the Ukraine grain deal

Crimean Tatars’ guerrilla war

• Another important non-state group that is playing an increasingly prominent role in the war – this time on Ukraine’s side – are the Crimean Tatars.
• It is waging what appears to be a highly effective guerrilla campaign, disrupting logistics, sabotaging key targets and stoking discontent against – and within – the Russian army.
• Read more:
  Crimean bridge attack is another blow to Putin's strongman image

Russians on the home front

• Matveeva has spoken with ordinary Russians who either donate funds or run grassroots campaigns to provide everything from stretchers and medical supplies to drones and other weaponry to help fill perceived shortfalls.
• But there’s a sense that by helping the men at the front, it could reduce the prospect that their own sons might be called up.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: how Russians are rallying on the home front to support 'their boys'

Nato matters

• One expert pondering the timing of the counteroffensive is Cyrille Bret, an expert in defence studies at Sciences Po, who asks: why now and to what end?
• But there are other factors – strategic and political – that would have driven Zelensky to give the order to begin.
• It could be awkward, to say the least, writes Tracey German, a professor of conflict and security at King’s College London.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: Kremlin attempt to control private militaries like Wagner Group fails to address rivalry between factions

From the sky to the seabed

• Christopher Morris, who teaches military strategy at the University of Portsmouth, believes access to superior commercial satellite tech has given Ukraine a significant edge in targeting Russian armour.
• Hi-res images of Russian defensive installations will allow Ukraine’s planners to work out ways to target, destroy or circumvent them.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: Kremlin's threat to interfere with undersea data cables may be bluster, but must be taken seriously

Neighbourhood threat

• Vladimir Putin announced the other day to let us know he planned to station nuclear warheads in neighbouring Belarus.
• Belarus was the first former Soviet bloc country to get rid of its nukes after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• Since the late 1990s, the two countries have been what’s known as a “union state” (read, decisions are taken mainly in Moscow).
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: Russia's threat to station nuclear warheads in Belarus – what you need to know

Prospects for peace?

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