Future of the Royal Australian Navy

• AUKUS is a defence agreement among Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States designed to deter Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific region.
• It’s a long game, something the world should keep in mind as the two-year-old pact faces multiple political complications in U.S. Congress.

Two pillars

• The partnership is set up into two pillars.
• Details are still to come about AUKUS Pillar 2 and its focus areas: other advanced (but non-nuclear) defence technologies such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
• It’s also pledging sustained joint involvement of diverse ministries and public agencies — a whole-of-government approach — among all three nations.
• The other two authorizations involve the sale of Virginia-class submarines to Australia and Australian participation in the American submarine industrial base.

The spectre of Trump

• But what about a Donald Trump — or Trumpist — comeback in 2024?
• The stakes of the 2024 presidential election are high.
• The possibility of civil disorder is real, as is a sharp turn towards authoritarianism.
• The main Australian political parties are united in boosting the pact’s benefits while minimizing its risks and costs.

Wider support

• Importantly, support for AUKUS is not confined to the three member states.
• Japan, Singapore, South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan have all welcomed the pact as a counterweight to China.
• The same goes for Canada and New Zealand, both of which are already in the intelligence-pooling Five Eyes partnership with AUKUS nations.
• Rather than voicing loud concerns about nuclear non-proliferation and regional arms races, India tacitly supports the partnership.