COP27

• We compared emissions in China over the first four months of 2019 – before the pandemic – and 2023.
• Emissions rose 10% between the two periods, despite the pandemic and China’s faltering economic recovery.
• Under the Paris Agreement, China has pledged to ensure carbon emissions peak by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2060.

An alarming trend in emissions

• Some researchers examined the trends in China’s emissions up to 2019 and predicted the nation’s emissions would peak by 2026.
• We examined data from Carbon Monitor, which provides science-based estimates of daily CO₂ emissions across the world.
• We compared emissions data from January to April 2019 (which represents typical pre-pandemic conditions in China) with the corresponding months in 2023.
• In the first four months of 2023, daily emissions from those sectors were an average 30.9 million tonnes.
• But these are the two smallest sectors, together accounting for only 18% of China’s emissions.

The global picture

• Developing nations increasingly dominate global emissions.
• And, partly because China’s population and economy are so big, it stands to benefit more than any country in the world from a more stable global climate.
• We saw this at the COP27 global climate conference in Egypt late last year, when China did not join a pledge to curb methane emissions and refused to provide financial support to developing nations vulnerable to climate change.
• David Stern previously received research funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK Department for International Development.

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• The aim is also to contribute to the international agenda on development and climate financing, a few months after the UN climate summit, COP27, left a mixed record.
• Many developing countries are having to reckon with an ever-growing number of natural hazards, at a time of acute socio-economic vulnerability.
• However, the financial situations of developing countries vary: some, such as Sri Lanka, Ghana and Suriname, already have unsustainable public debt that needs to be restructured.

Increasingly complex debt restructuring

• On top of ad hoc restructuring for countries facing particular constraints, several debt restructuring or suspension initiatives were launched in 2000 in response to more widespread debt situations.
• In response to this new international context, the G20 countries have set up a “Common Framework for Debt Treatment”, enabling countries eligible for the DSI to request a restructuring of their debt in case of persistent financing deficits.
• However, the global framework for debt restructuring has so far had little impact on climate issues, with climate investment often an afterthought.

Vulnerable countries in demand

• As a result, several countries called for reform of this financial architecture at the UN General Assembly in 2021, in particular by asking for debt restructuring to be linked to climate objectives.
• This call was echoed at COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021, notably by the V20 countries (vulnerable twenty group).
• Now comprising 58 nations, the group accounts for 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and yet are at the receiving end of climate change.

Even more complexity?

• At the end of the 76th annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF in October 2022, the G7, joined by Australia, the Netherlands and Switzerland, set out its proposals for reforming the World Bank.
• Much indicates 2023 will be a year of reform for development finance, with many events slated to reflect on these issues.
• Institutions, both international (IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organisation, etc.)

• The 'Climate x' Leadership Training Program 2023 (the 'Climate x' Training), which is the first flagship program of the Campaign, has received an enthusiastic response from global youth.
• As its theme indicates, the 'Climate x' Campaign emphasizes the synergy between climate change and other SDGs and features a three-dimensional structure to engage with the broadest multi-stakeholders.
• Building upon the success from last year, the Campaign 2023 will adhere to its mission and structure while further enhancing the inclusivity and impact.
• During the Campaign, the member universities from the two alliances will collaborate to provide interdisciplinary online courses for the 'Climate x' Training.