LAG

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Further in January

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, February 20, 2024

NEW YORK, Feb. 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December 2023.

Key Points: 
  • NEW YORK, Feb. 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December 2023.
  • "The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016=100), after a 0.2 percent increase in December 2023.
  • The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. rose by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 118.6 (2016 = 100), reversing a decline of 0.4 percent in December 2023.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Inched Down in December

Retrieved on: 
Monday, January 22, 2024

NEW YORK, Jan. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.

Key Points: 
  • NEW YORK, Jan. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November.
  • "Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December.
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in December 2023 to 111.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November.
  • The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in December 2023 to 118.4 (2016 = 100), partially reversing an increase of 0.5 percent in November.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Fell Again in November

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, December 21, 2023

"The US LEI fell again in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index."

Key Points: 
  • "The US LEI fell again in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index."
  • The Leading Credit Index™ and manufacturing new orders were essentially unchanged, pointing to a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term.
  • As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024."
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in November 2023 to 111.2 (2016=100), after no change in October.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declines Again in October

Retrieved on: 
Monday, November 20, 2023

NEW YORK, Nov. 20, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in September.

Key Points: 
  • NEW YORK, Nov. 20, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in September.
  • "The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in October 2023 at 110.8 (2016=100), but the index is below its September's level after a downward revision.
  • The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. improved by 0.1 percent in October 2023 to 118.6 (2016 = 100), following the same rate of increase as in September.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Continues to Fall in September

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, October 19, 2023

NEW YORK, Oct. 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August.

Key Points: 
  • NEW YORK, Oct. 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August.
  • "In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index's ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance.
  • Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024."
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in September 2023 to 110.9 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent increase in August.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Fell Again in August

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, September 21, 2023

All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction.

Key Points: 
  • All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction.
  • The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024."
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. improved by 0.2 percent in August 2023 to 110.6 (2016=100), after a 0.3 percent increase in July.
  • The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. improved by 0.2 percent in August 2023 to 118.5, after a 0.1 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Fell Again in July

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, August 17, 2023

The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead.

Key Points: 
  • The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead.
  • The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan."
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. improved by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 110.5 (2016=100), after no change in June.
  • The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. was unchanged in both July and June of 2023, at 118.3 (2016 = 100).

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Fell Further in June

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, July 20, 2023

NEW YORK, July 20, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in May.

Key Points: 
  • NEW YORK, July 20, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in May.
  • "The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession.
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. remained unchanged in June 2023 at 110.0 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in May.
  • The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. was also unchanged in June 2023, at 118.4 (2016 = 100), after improving 0.1 percent in May.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Further in May

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, June 22, 2023

NEW YORK, June 22, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in April.

Key Points: 
  • NEW YORK, June 22, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in April.
  • "The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead.
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in May 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.3 percent in April.
  • The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in May 2023 to 118.4 (2016 = 100), reversing a decline of 0.1 percent in April.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declines Again in April

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, May 18, 2023

"The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

Key Points: 
  • "The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
  • The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023."
  • The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in April 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in March.
  • The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased by 0.1 percent in April 2023 to 118.3 (2016 = 100), after remaining unchanged in March.