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• The leaders of the 31 nations that comprise NATO made their way home on July 12, 2023, after concluding two days of highest-level diplomatic meetings.
• The Conversation asked him for his main takeaways form the leaders’ meeting and what it suggests about the future of NATO.

Ukraine gets some of what it wants

• Ukraine also secured further commitments to nonlethal assistance and training from NATO members.
• Ukraine was embraced by NATO publicly and given clear shows of support and bilateral assistance from key members of the alliance.
• And that shouldn’t be overshadowed by some of the noises of disappointment or talk of Ukraine not showing enough “gratitude” toward NATO members.

Stronger with Sweden after Turkey relents

• Before announcing that Ankara would no longer stand in Sweden’s way, Erdoğan had suggested that his compliance on Sweden might be conditional on the European Union’s looking favorably on Ankara’s own bid to join the economic union.
• Erdoğan’s about-face on Sweden allowed him to look magnanimous on the international stage, but it was likely rooted in domestic politics.
• It was notable that a day after Erdoğan’s announcement, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán signlaled that he too would now greenlight Sweden’s bid.

Back to adversary-based military planning

• The alliance also approved a pivot in how it will conduct defense planning and how it views its strategic goals and objectives.
• For the past 30 years, NATO planning has been geared around general threats rather than targeted at clear adversaries.
• And despite concern over the growing military threat from China, the Asian giant is not identified in the summit communiqué as a primary military threat to NATO nations.
• At the same time, the communiqué made clear that NATO is open to engagement with China.

• Leaders of the nations comprising NATO will meet for a two-day summit beginning on July 11, 2023.
• No doubt NATO members will want to present a united front at the meeting.

1. A pathway to Ukraine membership?

• With war in Europe the obvious backdrop to the summit, much talk will be about Ukraine.
• NATO members have been aiding Kyiv individually, through the supply of arms and aid.
• “No one in NATO is arguing in favor of granting membership while Ukraine remains at war.
• Beyond that, the allies are divided.”

  Read more:
  Nato: Vilnius summit will reflect fresh sense of purpose over Ukraine war – but hard questions remain over membership issues

2. What about Sweden?

• Fellow Nordic state Sweden would like to be next, perhaps even officially becoming the group’s 32nd member at the Vilnius meetup.
• But Sweden’s ascension continues to be blocked by NATO member Turkey.
• There are also suggestions that Erdoğan views Sweden’s ascension to NATO conditional on Turkey’s own bid to join the European Union.

3. The benefit of being a NATO member

• But why would Finland, Sweden, Ukraine and any other country look to join NATO?
• John Deni at American University School of International Service explained that Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty calls for collective action should any member be attacked.
• “Article 5 really is the heart and soul of the NATO alliance.

4. The end of the neutral option?

• As Finland’s and Sweden’s desire to join NATO shows, smaller nations traditionally seen as aspiring to neutrality are, in the words of University of Michigan’s Ronald Suny, “recalculating how they fit into this renewed division of the world.” Suny noted that, with Finland’s entry into NATO and the possibility of once-neutral Sweden joining it, other states are questioning “the efficacy of nonalignment in a polarized world.” “In its place, we have the ‘NATOfication’ of Eastern Europe – something that Putin unwittingly accelerated and which leaves Putin’s Russia with less accommodating neighbors,” Suny wrote.
• Read more:
  Finland, NATO and the evolving new world order – what small nations know

5. A cluster bomb controversy

• Last weekend, Turkey held a historic election that will be crucial in deciding in the way the country is heading.
• To win the presidential component of the election, a candidate must garner more than 50% of the votes.

Who is Erdogan’s opposition and what were their arguments?

• The broad opposition National Alliance is made up of six political parties, spearheaded by the Kilicdaroglu-led Republican People’s Party (CHP) party.
• CHP is known for its pro-secularist policies, and for this reason have been fiercely opposed by the religious segment of Turkish voters.
• To turn this image around, Kilicdaroglu promised a broad reconciliation policy to unite the country and heal the wounds of the past.
• Holding the alliance together was important, as a key criticism against the opposition was its fragmented nature, which some argued would make it impossible to form a concerted front against Erdogan.
• The National Alliance was fearful Ince’s candidacy would split opposition votes, which would in turn take the election to a second round that would advantage Erdogan.

What was Erdogan’s election strategy?

• Turkey has one of the highest rates of detained and jailed journalists in the world – in fact, it is second only to China.
• During April, Erdogan received more than 33 hours of airtime on the state-run TRT channel.
• First was the secular history of CHP, established by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and now led by Kilicdaroglu.
• It seems the fear mongering strategy against Kilicdaroglu worked, and Erdogan will go to the runoff election ahead of his rival.

What is likely to happen next?

• If 50+% gives political legitimacy, and Erdogan is the incumbent president, he lost some legitimacy by receiving less than 50% of the votes last weekend.
• They cannot be too critical of Erdogan and support Kilicdaroglu for fear of a post-election crackdown if Erdogan wins.
• But they would also not want to be seen as too supportive of the Erdogan government in case Kilicdaroglu wins the election.