Islamic republic

• Iran’s attack involved around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles, all directed against Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
• But various options have been canvassed, including a strike of some sort against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.
• It has assassinated a number of nuclear scientists over the years, and launched a number of attacks on the country’s nuclear facilities.
• Believed to have been created through collaboration between US and Israeli intelligence, the Stuxnet malware was designed to severely disrupt centrifuge operations at Natanz and is thought to have set back Iran’s nuclear weapons programme by years.

Iran’s nuclear weapons history

• The country developed a civil nuclear programme under the late Shah, and in 1970 ratified the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, committing the country not to possess nor develop nuclear weapons.
• During the late 1990s and early 2000s, Iran pursued a secret nuclear weapons development project, known as the Amad Plan.

• But it is thought that by then, Iran had the capacility to build a small and fairly crude nuclear device.
• A great deal of what we know about the development of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme stems from the 2018 Mossad raid.
• This revealed that work on weapons development was not entirely halted, and that Iran continued to work on improving its nuclear weapons capability.
• It has resumed operations at nuclear facilities previously prohibited under the terms of the agreement and, since February 2021, has prevented the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from effectively monitoring its nuclear sites.

Can an Iranian ‘bomb’ be prevented?

• First, Iran possesses the requisite expertise to develop nuclear weapons, which cannot be eradicated through bombing raids.
• While targeting Iranian facilities would temporarily hinder the programme, any setbacks would likely be short-lived.
• Destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz would be essential, but accessing these facilities would necessitate a significant number of airstrikes penetrating deep into Iranian territory, while circumventing or overpowering its air defence systems.

Christoph Bluth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• The US and UK have over the past few weeks carried out a number of joint military strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
• The US and UK have justified their strikes by invoking the right of self-defence, as enshrined in article 51 of the United Nations’ charter.
• But the reality is that the justification advanced by these states is far from clear and the applicable law not settled.
• There are also question marks over whether the Houthi attacks were of sufficient gravity to justify an argument of self-defence.

Threat to global trade

• The right of self defence would arguably be available to a state to protect those vessels sailing under its flag.
• But even then, the majority of commercial vessels struck by the Houthis have not been sailing under the flag of either the US and UK.
• Whether these states have the right to act in “collective self-defence” of the states whose flagged vessels have been struck is not entirely clear.
• But in any case, a request for such assistance would need to have been made by these states.

Christian Henderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• OTTAWA, ON, Jan. 8, 2024 /CNW/ - The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, today issued the following statement on the National Day of Remembrance for Victims of Air Disasters:
  "On this National Day of Remembrance for Victims of Air Disasters, we stand in solidarity with Canadians at home and around the world who have lost loved ones to these tragedies.
• "We solemnly remember the victims of all air disasters, including Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 (Flight PS752), Air Ontario Flight 1363, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, and Air India Flight 182.
• "Exactly four years ago today, the downing of Flight PS752 by the Islamic Republic of Iran shocked the world.
• "As we pay tribute to the victims of air disasters, we offer our deepest condolences to the families and friends who have lost loved ones.

• The most critical additional threat to Israel is from Hezbollah, the militant group and political party based across Israel’s northern border in Lebanon.
• Hamas and Hezbollah are both backed by Iran and see weakening Israel as their primary raison d’etre.
• Hezbollah has not yet fully entered the current conflict, but the group has exchanged fire with Israel, across the northern border with Lebanon.

What is Hezbollah?

• Its ideology is focused on expelling western powers from the Middle East and on rejecting Israel’s right to exist.
• Hezbollah’s military force continued to develop after the Lebanese civil war came to an end in 1990, despite most other factions disarming.
• In 2021, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group had 100,000 fighters (though other estimates range between 25,000 and 50,000).
• Other Lebanese parties accuse Hezbollah of paralysing and undermining the state and of contributing to Lebanon’s persistent instability.

What is Hamas?

• The group was founded in 1987, in Gaza, as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, a prominent Sunni group based in Egypt.
• Emerging during what’s known as the first intifada or uprising of Palestinians against Israeli occupation, Hamas quickly adopted the principle of armed resistance and called for the annihilation of Israel.
• Opposed to the peace process, Hamas’s armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, established itself as the primary force of armed resistance against Israel.

How are Hamas and Hezbollah different?

• What’s more, as a Sunni organisation, Hamas does not share the Shia religious link to Iran that characterises Hezbollah and most of Iran’s proxies.
• As a result, while Hamas no doubt benefits from Iran’s patronage, it tends to operate more independently than Hezbollah.
• In contrast, Hamas has received support in the past from Turkey and Qatar, among others, and operates with relative autonomy.