Black Knight Originations Market Monitor: Mortgage Production Continues to Decline With Purchase Demand Now Falling Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
The month's pipeline data showed overall rate locks down 14.4% month over month, led by a 16.9% decline in rate/term refinance locks, which are now down 93.6% since last year. Cash-out refinance activity fell another 14.1% from June -- a 67.2% year-over-year decline. The refi share of the market held at just 18%, the lowest point on record since at least January 2018, when Optimal Blue began tracking the metric. Government loan products gained market share as FHA lock activity increased at the expense of non-conforming loan volumes, a trend also likely reflected in another decline in the average loan amount -- from $351,000 to $344,000. The overall average credit score in July was 722, with scores on cash-out refinances edging modestly lower to 692 -- the lowest since Optimal Blue began tracking the metric in 2013.
- Leveraging daily rate lock data from the Black Knight Optimal Blue PPE -- mortgage lending's most widely used pricing engine -- the Originations Market Monitor provides the industry's earliest and most comprehensive view of origination activity.
- "Mortgage originators continue to experience strong headwinds," said Scott Happ, president of Optimal Blue, a division of Black Knight.
- The purchase lock count, which excludes the impact of soaring home values on volume, is off 25.8% from last year.
- Much more detail on July's origination activity can be found in the full Black Knight Originations Market Monitor report .