Institute | Jotup

Ukraine recap: Moscow's 'pyrrhic victory' in Bakhmut prompts unrest in the Russian military, but it's all smiles for Zelensky

Retrieved on:

Saturday, May 27, 2023

You’d be inclined to agree with the description proffered by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that this was a “pyrrhic victory”.

Key Points:

You’d be inclined to agree with the description proffered by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that this was a “pyrrhic victory”.
Meanwhile Ukrainian forces continue to launch counterattacks in the area – so Russia’s confidence could well prove to be misplaced.
And the battle has caused a great deal of friction between the regular army, the Wagner Group and some of the hardline Russian commentators.
While all this has been going on, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, has been on a bit of a world tour.

Fighting on Russian soil

But analysts of this conflict have access to open-source intelligence that makes pinpointing where the fighting going on a great deal more accurate.
The fighting, in a number of small settlements in the Belgorod oblast close to the Ukraine border, appears to have involved a mix of pro-Ukraine Russian partisans and members of an anti-Putin neo-Nazi militia – although none of this has been fully confirmed.
Read more:
Ukraine war: what we know so far about reports of battles being fought across the border in Russia
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The trouble with the Wagner Group

The aforementioned Wagner Group boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been bitterly complaining about Russian military leadership.
“But what”, Prigozhin speculated, “if it turns out that this grandfather is a complete asshole?”
Read more:
Putin under pressure: the military melodrama between the Wagner group and Russia’s armed forces

Incidentally, the UK government is considering designating the Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation, the first government to do so.
Read more:
Wagner Group: what it would mean for the UK to designate Putin's private army a 'terrorist organisation'

Russians are Europeans too

We're using VR to help find the next generation of basketball stars

Retrieved on:

Monday, May 15, 2023

Many previous basketball superstars were first scouted as freakishly tall teenagers, but his game instead relies on clever movement, smooth dribbling and that famous pinpoint shooting.

Key Points:

Many previous basketball superstars were first scouted as freakishly tall teenagers, but his game instead relies on clever movement, smooth dribbling and that famous pinpoint shooting.
To stay ahead of the game, coaches are switching from subjective to objective methods and using increasingly sophisticated processes, including virtual reality (VR).
Players wore stereoscopic glasses and watched a virtual twin of a real basketball court on a huge screen.
The virtual scene was constantly updated with the players’ point of view to make them feel they were inside the game.

Experience counts – even in simulators

Male players also released the ball to the basket at a lower angle compared with female players, even after adjusting for their height.
Probably the most important feature of sports simulators is the way they can manipulate visual information such as where the floor markings are or how far the player is from the basket.
Researchers in this field talk about “fidelity”, which is the ability of VR simulators to mimic real-world sports performance.
Yes, the best players have repeatable and almost flawless technique, as Curry demonstrated in the first clip.

How better local employment support could help tackle UK labour shortages

Retrieved on:

Friday, May 12, 2023

Helping these people return to work would alleviate current UK labour shortages that are increasing workloads for existing staff, limiting output and business growth.

Key Points:

Helping these people return to work would alleviate current UK labour shortages that are increasing workloads for existing staff, limiting output and business growth.
But people who are economically inactive are not typically well served by mainstream national employment support.
Our joint research with Anne Green from the University of Birmingham and Paul Sissons from the University of Wolverhampton, shows a more local approach to employment support could help tackle this challenge.
These employment support services could also prioritise moving people into better-paid work, rather than the first job that becomes available.

What are the benefits of a more local approach?

Involving local stakeholders in designing employment support could also enable policy to be better targeted.
For example, Connecting Communities was an employment support pilot that ran in the West Midlands between 2018 and 2021, as part of a government pilot employment scheme.
It took a place-based approach to employment support, offering tailored, intensive support to people in nine neighbourhoods.
In order to reach people who do not traditionally engage with employment support, providers varied how and where participants were engaged.

Why isn’t this happening?

This is also largely targeted at moving active jobseekers on benefits into a job, so will exclude many who are economically inactive.
To keep their benefit payments, jobseekers are required to engage with this provision and to meet a range of requirements set by their adviser.
Local councils and authorities do not have the power to implement locally specific employment support programmes right now.
However, some recent government pilots have explored the potential to pursue different approaches to employment support in different city regions.

Ukraine recap: not a great deal to celebrate for Putin this Victory Day as Ukraine digs in for the long haul

Retrieved on:

Thursday, May 11, 2023

As we have previously noted here, Victory Day parades are a big deal for Vladimir Putin.

Key Points:

As we have previously noted here, Victory Day parades are a big deal for Vladimir Putin.
Presumably Russia needs all its military hardware at the front as it prepares for a spring offensive that is expected to begin any day now.
You can also subscribe to our fortnightly recap of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.
Read more:
I've just returned from Kyiv where they are expecting a long war and want more help from the west

Russian masculinity

The Russian Duma recently rubberstamped legislation that will make it significantly harder for young Russian men to avoid the call-up.
Russians have been treated to a blitz of advertising appealing to the Russian male’s sense of their “warrior masculinity”.
Marina Yusupova of Edinburgh Napier University is an expert in expressions of masculinity – particularly in Russia – and has researched Russian men’s views on the army and military service.
Read more:
Russia’s appeal to 'warrior masculinity' is unlikely to encourage men to enlist in the army
Muscovites got a nasty shock one night last week when two drones exploded close to the Kremlin itself.

China syndrome

As Stefan Wolff notes, there’s a lot at stake for China – whatever the outcomes.
On the other, various senior EU representatives have made it clear that Beijing’s stance on the war will significantly influence the future of Europe’s relationship with China.
Read more:
Ukraine war: what China gains from acting as peacemaker

Nowhere to hide for Putin?

Companies are saying the UK is 'closed for business' - here's how it can become more open

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Tech sector complaints about the difficulties of doing business in the UK have been repeated more recently by the manufacturing sector.

Key Points:

Tech sector complaints about the difficulties of doing business in the UK have been repeated more recently by the manufacturing sector.
A decade of “flip-flopping” by the government has left the UK without an industrial strategy, according to Make UK, which represents industrial and manufacturing employers.

Reasons for the UK’s decline

There are a number of possible business-related drivers behind this decline.
Training and education to ensure workers have up-to-date skills is no longer regarded as essential by many companies.
Business confidence and investment are suffering as a result, with implications for jobs and innovation recovery following COVID-19 lockdowns.

Boosting British business again

One major task will be to encourage infrastructure investment, to improve the woefully inefficient movement of goods and people within the UK.
This is especially important since massive delays and overspending mean HS2 is unlikely to be the silver bullet needed to encourage business investment outside of London and Birmingham.
Read more:
UK energy windfall tax: what it is and why it needs to change

Business-friendly fixes

Random dumping of EU legislation, particularly food and environmental standards, is also increasingly recognised as damaging for the country.
As Sunak seems to recognise, having agreed the Windsor Framework, it’s better to improve relations with the EU and work with it to streamline rules on trade.
It is unlikely to happen, though, under the current government’s “what will work today?” approach.

Busting a king-sized myth: why Australia and NZ could become republics – and still stay in the Commonwealth

Retrieved on:

Thursday, May 4, 2023

In particular, there is a common assumption that both nations must remain monarchies to retain membership of the Commonwealth of Nations.

Key Points:

In particular, there is a common assumption that both nations must remain monarchies to retain membership of the Commonwealth of Nations.
There is no basis for it in the rules of the Commonwealth or the practice of its members.
Australia could ditch the monarchy and stay in the club, and New Zealand can too, whether it has a king or a Kiwi as head of state.

What does ‘Commonwealth’ mean?

It would make just as much sense to ask whether Australia or New Zealand should leave the International Cricket Council and become a republic.
What we usually refer to as the Commonwealth, on the other hand, is the organisation founded in 1926 as the British Commonwealth of Nations.
The Commonwealth has 56 members – but only 15 of them continue to have the king as head of state.

Joining the Commonwealth club

A 2010 poll conducted by the Royal Commonwealth Society found that, of the respondents in seven countries, only half knew the then queen was the head of the Commonwealth.
Given the king’s overlapping leadership roles and the different use of the word in the contexts of Commonwealth Realms and the Commonwealth of Nations, these broad misunderstandings are perhaps understandable.
In fact, it was this ambiguity that allowed for the development of an inclusive Commonwealth during the postwar years of decolonisation.
From that point on the Commonwealth of Nations no longer comprised only members who admitted to the supremacy of one sovereign.

Monarchy optional

With the support of Nelson Mandela, Mozambique became a member, joining the six Commonwealth members with which it shared a border.
Being a monarchy is entirely optional.
The new king offers the chance for a broader debate on the advantages of monarchy.

Australians should be wary of scare stories comparing the Voice with New Zealand’s Waitangi Tribunal

Retrieved on:

Monday, May 1, 2023

As the debate around the Voice to Parliament ramps up, we can probably expect similar claims to be made ahead of this year’s referendum.

Key Points:

As the debate around the Voice to Parliament ramps up, we can probably expect similar claims to be made ahead of this year’s referendum.
But the issue is so important to Australia’s future that such misinformation should not go unchallenged.
The Waitangi Tribunal was originally established as a commission of inquiry in 1975, given the power only to make recommendations to government.

Deceptive and wrong

Titled “The New Zealand Māori voice to Parliament and what we can expect from Australia”, it was written by the director of the institute’s legal rights program, John Storey.
Read more:
What Australia could learn from New Zealand about Indigenous representation
The last of the statements is deceptive and the others are completely wrong.
The Waitangi Tribunal’s jurisdiction was largely set in stone by the New Zealand parliament in 1975 when it was established.

Historic grievances

In 1992 a major settlement of fishing claims began an era of negotiation and settlement of these claims, quite separate from the tribunal itself.
With the majority of significant historic claims now settled or in negotiation, that aspect of the tribunal’s work is coming to an end.
In 1993, it lost the power to make recommendations involving private land – that is, land not owned by the Crown.

Wide political support

The Waitangi Tribunal investigates claims that the Crown has acted contrary to the “principles of the Treaty”.
The Waitangi Tribunal establishes what those principles are, but they are binding on neither the courts nor parliament.
The Waitangi Tribunal will remain a permanent commission of inquiry because there is wide political support for its work.
Nor can be it held solely responsible for increasing Māori assertiveness or political engagement with government, even if this was in any way a bad thing.

Canada's federal transfer payment system badly needs a tune-up

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

But that’s precisely what the federal government has been doing — missing opportunities to seriously explore reforming the federal transfer payments system.

Key Points:

But that’s precisely what the federal government has been doing — missing opportunities to seriously explore reforming the federal transfer payments system.
This is yet another example of the failure of the government to seriously examine whether our system of federal transfers needs a tune-up in the face of growing challenges.

Multiple strains

Local governments are playing an increasing role in delivering services and infrastructure but with limited resources.
Statistics Canada projects the share of Canadians over 65 will increase from less than one-fifth today to nearly one-quarter by 2050.
For context, if funded entirely from tax increases, that would require increasing the GST by approximately 10 percentage points.

Concerns about fairness

An issue that hits closer to home for some Canadians is that of perceived fairness.
A striking example of grievances about the fairness of fiscal federalism is the debate about the federal equalization program, which has faced criticism from wealthier provinces since its inception in 1957.
In the lead-up to the upcoming Alberta election on May 29, Alberta is strongly expressing its concern that the federal government extended the formula another five years.
Who should do what, and who should pay for what, are central questions that we need to get right and that we need to adapt when necessary.

Details and trade-offs

From changes to equalization to tax point transfers, health-care funding, municipal infrastructure support and a more fundamental rethinking of the system of fiscal federalism that we have today, there are many details to work out and trade-offs to consider.
Read more:
Why Canada's equalization program needs a major overhaul
Historically, mounting pressure led governments to pursue deep dives into our fiscal systems and enact evidence-based reforms.
From the Rowell-Sirois Commission in the late 1930s to the 2006 O’Brien Report on equalization, this has been a common approach.
His full disclosure statement is available at https://www.trevortombe.com/post/conflict/conflict/ Daniel Béland receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

Why strike action is climate action

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Other difficulties are more hidden, like the pervasive anxiety of a strike day as emails roll in.

Key Points:

Other difficulties are more hidden, like the pervasive anxiety of a strike day as emails roll in.
Not doing the work can leave me feeling that I’m letting down activists and others on the coalface of climate action in order to support narrower concerns around wages, working conditions and pensions.
Hallam is mistaken when he pits industrial action over wages against climate action.
Climate change is a systemic problem and I argue that strike action goes some way to addressing core systemic drivers of climate change.

A systemic problem

When I say that climate change is a systemic problem I am looking beyond the greenhouse gas emissions which are the direct physical drivers of climate change.
Production requires taking materials and applying energy to them in order to transform them into the thing that we want.
In short, climate change is a problem of global production and consumption systems.
Polling from right-wing thinktank the Institute for Economic Affairs found that 75% of British 16 to 34 year olds agreez that climate change is a specifically capitalist problem.

Capitalism prioritises making money

The features of capitalism that make it really hard to transition away from fossil fuels also lead to poor working conditions.
For instance, one core feature is the prioritisation of making money over all other concerns.
In striving to make money capitalism reduces both ecosystems and workers to costs: annoyances that are to be ignored and minimised.

More than money?

On the picket line I am asserting that I am more than a cost of production, and more than a generator of income.
I do not believe that standing on a picket line can replace tearing down the fossil fuel industry.
Strike action is one way to build towards these shifts, and in this way can be a precursor to stronger climate action.

Teachers are quitting – here's what could be done to get them to stay

Retrieved on:

Monday, April 17, 2023

Government, Teaching, Motivation, Policy, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, School, Social, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Research, Education, Institute, Solution, Tutoring, Nursing, Management

Just recently, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged that more teachers are needed to implement his policy of maths education until the age of 18.

Key Points:

Just recently, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged that more teachers are needed to implement his policy of maths education until the age of 18.
I surveyed over 300 teachers to find out whether and when they intended to leave the profession.
My findings show that policies related to reducing teacher working hours and improving the quality of school leaders would be effective.
Even a modest pay rise, such as 3.5%, would cost the government almost £500 million a year.

Good leadership

I found that teachers in schools with a good senior leadership team have lower intentions to leave.
My research also shows that an improvement in senior leadership quality would have a greater impact on teacher intentions than a 5% pay rise.
It is possible that the effect of poor school leadership might be mitigated by training and development for teachers.

Alternative careers

What teachers believe about the job options available to them outside teaching play an important role in their decision to leave.
I found that the median teacher underestimated the average earnings of someone the same sex and age as them by £6,000.
The government is, at least partially, relying on teachers’ misconceptions about their alternative career opportunities to ensure that schools are appropriately staffed.
Teachers are highly educated professionals who perform one of society’s most important roles, and their pay ought to reflect that.