Institute

Wagner debacle in Russia raises red flags for African states and how they manage their security

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, June 28, 2023

This was no less true in Africa, where some countries have, over the last decade, turned to the Wagner group for security support.

Key Points: 
  • This was no less true in Africa, where some countries have, over the last decade, turned to the Wagner group for security support.
  • This includes violent extremism, terrorism, insurgency, banditry, communal clashes, sea piracy, separatist violence, kidnapping and oil theft.
  • The aborted Wagner rebellion offers distinct lessons for African countries that have invited mercenary troops onto their soil.
  • This must include repositioning their military and law enforcement agencies to respond effectively to internal and external security challenges.

Non-state actors


    African countries have come to depend on non-state actors like Wagner for security in three ways:
    • In 2015 the Nigerian government awarded a multi-million naira contract to Oodua Peoples Congress, an ethnic militia, to secure oil pipelines.
    • Seven years later the Nigerian Senate lent legislative support to the N48 billion pipeline surveillance contract awarded to Global West Vessel Specialist Limited.
    • He was the former commander of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, popularly known as Tompolo.
    • They were an affront to the Nigerian constitution, which empowers the law enforcement and security agencies as ultimate providers of security.
    • In 2019 Wagner fighters were deployed to Mozambique to help contain Islamist militants operating in the northern Cabo Delgado province.

Implications

    • The Wagner rebellion in Russia has three possible implications for African countries.
    • Rebellion: States in which the Wagner group is operating could witness armed rebellion.
    • In some, the military and police have already ceded critical security operations to the group.
    • In addition, non-state armed groups could draw their cue from the Wagner group and become unaccountable to the military.

What’s next?


    African countries that have invited the mercenary troops in should review their security architecture. This must begin with a decoupling of their security policies and operations from mercenaries and non-state security service providers.

African women lawyers: numbers are up but report sheds light on obstacles to leadership in the profession

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Several countries across the continent have almost equal numbers of women and men at the bar.

Key Points: 
  • Several countries across the continent have almost equal numbers of women and men at the bar.
  • In the legal academy, some countries have recorded success with women as deans of law faculties and heads of departments.
  • Findings from the Women in Law and Leadership study show that progress is uneven across the judiciary, bar and academia.
  • Advancing women in leadership should be a priority for all advocates for human rights, the rule of law, and justice.

Barriers to leadership

    • Therefore, the barriers this report identifies shed light on the old, new and emerging obstacles to women’s retention and promotion.
    • As a woman on the bench, I encountered my own barriers in rising to where I am today.
    • But those barriers play out differently for different women and change over time.
    • Therefore, the barriers this report identifies shed light on the old, new and emerging obstacles to women’s retention and promotion.

Moving forward

    • Some analysts make a “business case” for more women in leadership.
    • What is needed is a shift in systems, institutional practices, norms and perceptions to accommodate more women in leadership positions.
    • Systems change is possible if financial investments are directed at supporting women and women‑led organisations across Africa and the African diaspora.

Time after time, tragedies like the Titan disaster occur because leaders ignore red flags

Retrieved on: 
Monday, June 26, 2023

It rates 46% of these as “smoldering” in nature – that is, likely to have occurred after red flags or warning signs.

Key Points: 
  • It rates 46% of these as “smoldering” in nature – that is, likely to have occurred after red flags or warning signs.
  • Read more: Why PR agencies and their spin should be the subject of greater scrutiny
    Why red flags get ignored
    Why are red flags not always acted on?
  • An independent inquiry found the bank failed to act on 75 red flags over a period of 18 months.
  • Whether it is companies or governments or communities or individuals, when there are warning signs of impending disaster speak up, and keep speaking up, until someone takes action.

Why the Bank of England's interest rate hikes aren't slowing inflation enough and what that means for mortgages

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, June 22, 2023

The May figures came out the day before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was due to meet to discuss changing the UK base rate.

Key Points: 
  • The May figures came out the day before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was due to meet to discuss changing the UK base rate.
  • A 13th consecutive rise in June had been expected for some time, because the headline rate of inflation has been well above its medium-term 2% target since mid-2021.
  • The latest 0.5% increase (to 5%) represents a jump from previous 0.25% increments, showing their concern that inflation is becoming embedded in the economy.
  • The number of rate increases since 2021 reflects an unexpected slowness for these hikes to take effect on inflation.
  • Although a painfully blunt instrument in this respect, interest rates are the only one the MPC has.

A convenient scapegoat

    • It’s convenient, then, to allow the blame for overshooting inflation to be placed on the independent central bank.
    • With hindsight, the Bank of England’s policy since the 2008 global financial crisis is easy to criticise.
    • It kept interest rates close to zero from February 2009 to March 2020, reducing them further during the COVID pandemic, then lifting them rapidly since December 2021.
    • So the unprecedented jump in interest rates since 2021 has caused a sudden shock to corporate and household cashflows.

Treatment-resistant inflation

    • Although inevitable, the recent succession of interest rate rises has done little to tame the inflation we’re all experiencing at the moment.
    • Since early 2022, most prices have been pushed up by rising costs, which is known as cost-push inflation.

Ukraine recap: counteroffensive makes slow progress while diplomacy fails to make any ground at all

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, June 22, 2023

One expert pondering the timing of the counteroffensive is Cyrille Bret, an expert in defence studies at Sciences Po, who asks: why now and to what end?

Key Points: 
  • One expert pondering the timing of the counteroffensive is Cyrille Bret, an expert in defence studies at Sciences Po, who asks: why now and to what end?
  • But there are other factors – strategic and political – that would have driven Zelensky to give the order to begin.
  • It could be awkward, to say the least, writes Tracey German, a professor of conflict and security at King’s College London.
  • Read more:
    Ukraine war: Kremlin attempt to control private militaries like Wagner Group fails to address rivalry between factions

From the sky to the seabed

    • Christopher Morris, who teaches military strategy at the University of Portsmouth, believes access to superior commercial satellite tech has given Ukraine a significant edge in targeting Russian armour.
    • Hi-res images of Russian defensive installations will allow Ukraine’s planners to work out ways to target, destroy or circumvent them.
    • Read more:
      Ukraine war: Kremlin's threat to interfere with undersea data cables may be bluster, but must be taken seriously

Neighbourhood threat

    • Vladimir Putin announced the other day to let us know he planned to station nuclear warheads in neighbouring Belarus.
    • Belarus was the first former Soviet bloc country to get rid of its nukes after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    • Since the late 1990s, the two countries have been what’s known as a “union state” (read, decisions are taken mainly in Moscow).
    • Read more:
      Ukraine war: Russia's threat to station nuclear warheads in Belarus – what you need to know

Prospects for peace?

Ukraine war: Russia's threat to station nuclear warheads in Belarus – what you need to know

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, June 21, 2023

He was reacting to questioning from journalists as to whether he believed Belarus had been taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

Key Points: 
  • He was reacting to questioning from journalists as to whether he believed Belarus had been taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
  • If true, it’s the first time Russia has deployed nuclear warheads outside its borders since the end of the cold war.
  • It would change the nature of the relationship between Russia and Belarus and bring Belarus deeper under Russian control.

The real target

    • This will require a significant Russian military presence and permanent military bases in Belarus.
    • Belarusians do not want to have Russian nuclear weapons on their soil.
    • Researchers from Chatham House who regularly conduct surveys in Belarus have found that 74% of respondents in their March 2023 survey objected to deployment.
    • After Russia went into Ukraine, a Chatham House survey found that 47% were against the invasion, while only 33% were in favour.

Fallout from Chornobyl

    • The memory of the Chornobyl disaster in 1986.
    • About 70% of the radioactive fallout landed on its territory, and there is evidence that Moscow deliberately seeded clouds so that radioactive rain fell over Belarus rather than drift towards Moscow.
    • The political fallout was slower but no less significant: over the years, Chornobyl commemorations have become an annual rallying point for anti-Lukashenko opposition.

Consequences for Belarus and beyond

    • Consolidating his control over Belarus would be a significant strategic victory for Putin’s imperial ambitions.
    • Preoccupied with fighting in Ukraine and lacking a clear and decisive policy on Belarus, the west has no obvious immediate response.
    • But if Moscow follows through with its threat it would be a dangerous moment – not just for Belarus but for Europe as a whole.

Supermarket shelves were empty for months after the Lismore floods. Here's how to make supply chains more resilient

Retrieved on: 
Monday, June 19, 2023

But the past few years have made life harder for many who live there, with Black Summer bushfires, the COVID pandemic and intense flooding.

Key Points: 
  • But the past few years have made life harder for many who live there, with Black Summer bushfires, the COVID pandemic and intense flooding.
  • While it’s often assumed Australia’s strong agricultural sector means we are secure, these successive disasters show the danger of this assumption.
  • In Lismore, they were empty for weeks or up to four months for major supermarkets.

Shorter supply chains are stronger supply chains

    • During the floods, food supply chains bent or broke.
    • As a local food business owner told us:
      We are not making any money at the moment, just working to maintain customers.
    • First, we must think of food as a local system rather than a linear supply chain.

Communities move fast while government often moves slowly

    • In the wake of the floods, an inquiry found a worrying lack of preparedness or ability to respond by the state government.
    • As one helper told the ABC:
      Everywhere is closed – that’s why we wanted to open the farmers’ market, because everyone’s out of supplies.
    • Everywhere is closed – that’s why we wanted to open the farmers’ market, because everyone’s out of supplies.
    • The people running local food exchanges and pop-up kitchens served and delivered food to those who couldn’t access food on their own.

Food insecurity is on the rise – and worsened by disasters

    • But it’s surged even higher as the nation weathers the economic fallout from the pandemic and rising living costs.
    • In 2022, Foodbank reported that one-third of Australian households had problems with finding enough to eat.
    • Our study found food charities in the Northern Rivers were also disrupted by the floods.

We should build up community food networks and regional circular economies


    Even before the floods, Lismore was one of the most disaster-prone areas in Australia. This won’t be the last major shock the region faces. So what can we do? Our recommendations to boost food resilience include:
    • And last year’s floods in South Australia cut the vital Trans-Australian railway, which transports 80% of WA’s food.
    • If we harness community networks, innovative solutions and drive policy change, we can build a more resilient and secure food system for the Northern Rivers – and beyond.
    • In 2023 this includes the Northern Rivers Community Foundation and Plan C. Sheriden Keegan receives funding from Plan C and Northern Rivers Community Foundation.
    • Somayeh Sadegh Koohestani works for Institute for Sustainable Futures and received funding in 2023 from Northern Rivers Community Foundation and Plan C.

Boris Johnson's claims about being 'forced out' of parliament are simply false – here's why

Retrieved on: 
Monday, June 12, 2023

Their purpose from the beginning has been to find me guilty, regardless of the facts.

Key Points: 
  • Their purpose from the beginning has been to find me guilty, regardless of the facts.
  • Johnson repeatedly insisted that he did not know rules were being broken despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
  • Johnson could have decided to see off a plot against him as long ago as April 2022, when the process began.
  • He is happy for the House to decide how it wishes to proceed…”

The committee’s process

    • Conservative Laura Farris, who had previously been critical of Johnson, resigned from the committee (although her reasons were not clear at the time).
    • And yet when the committee sent its almost final report to Johnson, he immediately claimed the whole process had been a “political hit-job” motivated by a desire for “revenge” for Brexit.
    • Johnson was able to take and use legal advice through the process and we know that there were letters and challenges as part of that.

‘Will of the people’

    • In short, had he respected the processes of the parliament he once declared sovereign, he would have faced the will of the people.
    • It is not for a committee of MPs to force him out and the committee of MPs did not itself presume to.
    • The Institute for Government has commented that the partygate saga has served to underline the importance of ministers being truthful in parliament.
    • In the wake of Johnson’s resignation, cabinet member Grant Shapps told the BBC that people don’t miss all the drama.

How we can avoid political misinformation in the lead-up to the Voice referendum

Retrieved on: 
Monday, June 5, 2023

This is a timely change, as we are seeing an increase of both disinformation and misinformation being spread about the First Nations Voice to Parliament.

Key Points: 
  • This is a timely change, as we are seeing an increase of both disinformation and misinformation being spread about the First Nations Voice to Parliament.
  • Both refer to the spread of political information that is false and misleading.
  • Read more:
    The Voice isn't apartheid or a veto over parliament – this misinformation is undermining democratic debate

What misinformation have we been hearing so far?

    • He claimed the advertisement “Our Vote, Our Future” had “crossed the line” and leans in favour of the “yes” campaign.
    • This is an example of misinformation.
    • This exact slogan has been used by the electoral commission to encourage Indigenous people to enrol to vote in previous elections over the years.

The dangers of misinformation and how to identify it

    • Distrust and scepticism are healthy to a degree, but extreme distrust can fuel harmful conspiracy theories.
    • These conspiracies have placed lives at risk, as shown throughout the COVID pandemic, whereby unfounded medical treatments and fear of vaccines took centre stage in many misinformation campaigns.
    • Identifying misinformation in politics can be complex because it is a space where regular debates occur.
    • Many of those who peddled Trump’s election lies stood to be promoted, or had electoral self-interest in pursuing the line.

How can you protect yourself against misinformation?

    • When you hear commentary around the Voice, be on the lookout for language that may be used to elicit strong emotional responses, instead of encouraging logical thinking.
    • Words such as “apartheid”, “divided” or even “racist” may be used intentionally to elicit strong emotions.
    • However, there are resources available that can help with navigating this referendum and making an informed choice:


    As the referendum date approaches, and each of the campaigns seek to persuade you, remember some claims may evoke emotions, or surprise, and their motivations may not always be truthful. A healthy dose of scepticism, and a search for the truth, will help you to find your own voice in this important referendum.

Voices of Preston's Windrush generation – when I first arrived, I said: 'Really? I thought there were no slums in this place!'

Retrieved on: 
Friday, June 2, 2023

In 1955, the pages of the Lancashire Evening Post hosted intense debates about whether a “colour bar” existed in the town.

Key Points: 
  • In 1955, the pages of the Lancashire Evening Post hosted intense debates about whether a “colour bar” existed in the town.
  • A great deal has been written about Windrush – but much of the information was southern-based and related to large conurbations.
  • This article is part of our Windrush 75 series, which marks the 75th anniversary of the HMT Empire Windrush arriving in Britain.
  • Church, carnival and cricket: the three pillars of this vibrant local community – built in Preston by proud members of its Windrush generation.

Sylius Toussaint

    • My aunt said to me: “Sylius, why don’t you go to England?
    • You could work, study and whatever it is.” So I paid my passage and came – and here I’ve been for the last 60-plus years.
    • I left Dominica on May 29 and arrived in Barbados the following day.
    • So we were sent on an aircraft from Barbados to Bermuda, Bermuda to Newfoundland, then Newfoundland to Ireland.
    • My sister lives down in London with her children … and some (not all) of them say:
      Uncle Sylius, that’s the best thing you’ve done, sent for my mum, because I’m glad I’m here in England and life is so much better than if it was in the Caribbean.
    • Uncle Sylius, that’s the best thing you’ve done, sent for my mum, because I’m glad I’m here in England and life is so much better than if it was in the Caribbean.

Joanett Hue

    • Looking at the houses, I said: “My god, it’s no different.” At that time, we lived in Avenham [in central Preston], the flats.
    • When I went in there, [my husband] Joe said: “This is where I’m living – this is the kitchen, this is the bathroom.” I couldn’t believe it.
    • Honestly, when my husband said this is where we would be living … I went into the bathroom and I cried, I cried.
    • I said: “Why did I leave my house to come here?” When I woke up in the morning, there were hailstones, it was raining.

Vincent Skerritt

    • They couldn’t join the union and often it was much more physical work, like in the foundry, knocking iron and the engine blocks and the rest of it.
    • It was purely nights, and I couldn’t handle the night work.
    • So you walk in with a bottle knowing that if you’re attacked, you have something to defend yourself.
    • Some people used to have a little piece of iron metal, wrapped up nicely in a newspaper and you carry it under your arm.

Glyne Greenidge

    • My mum’s husband wasn’t a very nice man, and my mum suffered all the way.
    • I’m the oldest of seven children, so my stepdad kind of forced me out to work as soon as he could.
    • It was mainly in the cotton mills – that was the main work going in those days.
    • You could walk the streets and see little firms here or there.
    • You could go in and ask them if there were any jobs going.
    • But then again, I never let that spoil our relationship because we were friends, you know.

Gladstone Afflick

    • I left Jamaica on the July 28th and arrived in Preston on the 30th – a Sunday.
    • To me, Preston has come a heck of a long way since the sixties.
    • You could get into a fight seven days a week if you wanted, just by walking into town.
    • For instance, we have the Jalgos Sports & Social Club – I was the person who dragged 11 fellows together to form a cricket team.
    • And if we think that way, I think we will achieve together what is desired by all.

Cherry McDonald

    • I mean, I’ve been living here all these years but Jamaica is home.
    • Whatever I’ve achieved in life, I’ve achieved here in Britain.
    • I go for long walks, tend to the pots, go to church on Sunday in Longton, and read my bible at home.
    • If I was a smoker, I would not be going outside to smoke a cigarette – in winter, anyway.

Bridgette Toussaint

    • When I speak nicely to them, they understand that this is a lady, she will respect me.
    • For example, in one job I did, a woman said to me: “Bridgette, I don’t understand, why did you leave your nice place and come here?
    • Why do you have to come to steal our jobs?” I said: “Steal your jobs?
    • Because you’re lazy, that’s why they send for we black people to come to help to work.
    • Because you’re lazy!” Then she said: “Why don’t you go and dance with the monkeys in the zoo?” And I said: “What?

David Coke

    • But I won’t go back to live there, because I have become so acquainted with the lifestyle I have in England.
    • But even before I married, I’d always said to my wife that I wouldn’t go back to Jamaica.
    • Yes, America may be more modern and faster, and you can progress in life there much quicker than you can in England.
    • Alan Rice receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust, the EU and the AHRC, and is co-chair of Lancaster Black History Group.
    • England is My Home: Windrush Lives in Lancashire is available as an illustrated ebook at prestonblackhistorygroup.org.uk