Supreme

• That’s the momentous question the U.S. Supreme Court will consider in Trump v. Anderson, a case being argued before the justices on Feb. 8, 2024.
• The case involves the justices wading into the unfamiliar waters of the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause.
• That polarization has led people to shift their support for the court based on their perceptions of the court’s partisan leanings.
• No matter how hard the justices work to head off negative perceptions of the court, they have been unsuccessful at restoring their institution’s legitimacy.

‘My judges’

• He talks about the court system not as an independent branch of government but as a political institution whose positions should align with his own.
• In his Jan. 6, 2021, speech before the attack on the U.S. Capitol, Trump sounded miffed at the three justices he had nominated to the Supreme Court.
• But historically, presidents were careful to discuss the courts in legalistic terms and avoid politicizing the judiciary.
• Once the Senate confirmed his nominees to the Supreme Court, Trump referred to Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett as “my” judges.

Increased criticism, decreased legitimacy

• Framing the Supreme Court as a political institution beholden to the president diminishes the court’s legitimacy in the eyes of the public.
• Research shows that people’s support for the court decreases when a politician they like criticizes it.
• And that dramatically decreases its legitimacy.

Maintaining authority

• The court lacks the literal force or money to enforce its decisions.
• Consider the Supreme Court’s famous 1954 ruling in Brown v. Board of Education, which ordered the end of school segregation.
• Those institutions enforce Supreme Court decisions only because the public believes the court is a legitimate legal institution with the authority to make decisions about the law and get them enforced.
• Vance, a Republican from Ohio, suggested in a recent interview that the president could defy the Supreme Court.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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• The publisher researches, reviews and analyzes hourly rates that are publicly disclosed of attorneys and support staff at currently 2,500 law firms representing over 20,000 companies.
• Secondary public records research is performed to complete detailed engagement profiles of the attorneys and companies involved.
• In the Attorney Hourly Rates and LPM Pricing Platform, all hourly rates, hours and fees for each individual attorney are cited as to the source.
• The practice of law is global and although most hourly rate data is from public sources in the United States, the publisher captures hourly rates for attorneys in 62 countries and denominated in 11 currencies.

• A panel of three federal judges ruled on Dec. 21, 2023, that a few state House and Senate legislative maps drawn by an independent Michigan commission violate the Voting Rights Act.
• Their ruling, which is currently under appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, says the maps dilute Black voting power in 13 Detroit area legislative districts and those districts must be redrawn.

Can you tell us about the commission?

• The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission was created by a statewide ballot initiative to purge partisan politics from redistricting.
• Our research found that Michigan’s commission has more members not affiliated with a political party than any other state redistricting commission.

How were Michigan legislative maps drawn before the commission?

Michigan’s 2010 district maps were drawn by Republican politicians and have been held up as examples of extreme partisan gerrymandering. These lopsided maps triggered a movement, Voters Not Politicians. Volunteers collected 425,000 signatures to get a constitutional amendment on the Michigan ballot to take redistricting out of the hands of politicians.

How did the commission create the new maps?

• It was required to hold at least 10 public meetings to gather input prior to drawing maps; it held 16.
• It had to hold at least five public meetings after publishing its first drafts; it held 38.
• Citizens made more than 25,000 public comments at meetings or in written form.

Why were the new maps challenged?

In 2022, a group of Detroit voters filed a lawsuit, Agee v. Benson, challenging a few districts based on the federal Voting Rights Act. A three-judge panel ruled that 13 districts in the Detroit metro area – seven for the state House and six for the state Senate – are unconstitutional because they violate the equal protection clause, which says district lines cannot be drawn based solely on race.
The commissioners appealed the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court. But on Jan. 22, the high court refused to stop the process of redrawing the maps. The panel now has until Feb. 2 to present redrawn maps for public comment, with final ones due in March. The Supreme Court may still rule on the commission’s appeal – but likely not until after the state’s primary elections on Aug. 6.

Why did Detroit lose majority Black districts?

• The decline in majority Black districts in Detroit isn’t unique to the 2022 district maps.
• In 2012, the Michigan Legislative Black Caucus protested losing two other Detroit state House districts.
• In other words, the declining Black population in Detroit is a persistent demographic trend that complicates applying the Voting Rights Act.

Why is it so complex to make the Voting Rights Act work in Detroit?

• Under the Voting Rights Act, maps can neither crack nor pack minority voters.
• Cracking is when minority voters are spread across multiple districts, which makes it harder for them to win elections.
• Experts hired by the commission advised them that 35% to 45% is the sweet spot between packing and cracking Black voters in these districts.
• In District 8, which has 46% Black voters, Mike McFall, a white man, won the primary with 38% of the vote against two Black candidates.

So you’re suggesting too many primary candidates, not map boundaries, dilute the Black vote?

• For example, three Black primary candidates lost in the 9th House District, which has 53% Black voters.
• Other solutions like ranked choice voting could increase opportunities for Black primary victories, regardless of how many candidates run.

The new maps must be finalized by March 29. What does this mean for 2024 elections?

Given the tight deadline for the commission to publish the maps, receive public comments and then vote on the maps, candidates will have a shorter window to organize primary election campaigns. Some incumbents will see their constituents shift again. And it is possible that Black voters will be packed into a smaller number of districts.
Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson gathered signatures for the ballot initiative that put the redistricting commission before voters, and donated $100 to the group Voters Not Politicians. Lyke Thompson helped gather signatures for the 2018 ballot initiative that created the citizen commission.