Drone attack on American troops risks widening Middle East conflict – and drawing in Iran-US tensions
Retrieved on:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
A drone attack that killed three American troops and wounded at least 34 more at a base in Jordan has increased fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East – and the possibility that the U.S. may be further drawn into the fighting.
Key Points:
- A drone attack that killed three American troops and wounded at least 34 more at a base in Jordan has increased fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East – and the possibility that the U.S. may be further drawn into the fighting.
- President Joe Biden vowed to respond to the assault, blaming Iran-backed militias for the first U.S. military casualties in months of such strikes in the region.
- The Conversation turned to Sara Harmouch, an expert on asymmetric warfare and militant groups in the Middle East, to answer these and other questions.
What do we know about the group that claimed responsibility?
- Al-Muqawama al-Islamiyah fi al-Iraq, which translates as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, has claimed responsibility for the drone attack.
- However, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is not a single group per se.
- Rather, it is a term used to describe an umbrella organization, which, since around 2020, has included various Iran-backed militias in the region.
- This deliberate strategy hinders direct attribution and poses challenges for countries attempting to identify and retaliate against the precise culprits.
What do they hope to achieve in attacking a US target?
- Since the beginning of the conflict in October 2023, Iranian-backed militias have repeatedly struck American military bases in Iraq and Syria, recently expanding their attacks to include northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border.
- The attack in Jordan forms part of a strategy by Iranian-backed militias to counter Washington’s support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.
- But it is also aimed at advancing a wider goal of pushing U.S. forces out of the Middle East entirely.
What role did Iran have in the attack?
- But the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is known to be part of the networks of militia groups that Tehran supports.
- Iran, through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, has provided such militias with money, weapons and training.
- By doing so, Iran maintains plausible deniability when it comes to attacks carried out by its proxies.
What options does the US have to respond?
- The Biden administration faces complex dynamics when it comes to responding to attacks linked to Iranian-backed militias.
- This strategy has been employed in the past, yet it has not significantly curbed Iran’s or its proxies’ aggressive actions.
- The concern is that while such strikes are precise, they may not be enough to deter ongoing or future attacks.
- The Biden administration’s need to balance a strong response with the geopolitical consequences highlights the difficulties of navigating a tense and evolving situation.
How might the attack affect the wider Middle East conflict?
- How the U.S. responds could reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape and influence the dynamics of proxy warfare in the region.
- A strong military response from Washington might deter Iranian-backed militias from future attacks, but it could also provoke them into taking more aggressive actions.
- In the short term, any U.S. retaliation – especially if it targets Iranian interests directly – could escalate tensions in the region.
Sara Harmouch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.