Death of the Armenian dream in Nagorno-Karabakh was predictable but not inevitable
In recent days, more than 100,000 people have taken to the streets again.
- In recent days, more than 100,000 people have taken to the streets again.
- They have been decisively defeated by the Azerbaijanis in a short and brutal military operation in the enclave.
- As a longtime analyst of the history and politics of the South Caucasus, I see the chain of recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh as depressingly predictable.
A legacy of Lenin
- The 1988 demonstrations were met by violent pogroms by Azerbaijanis against Armenian minorities in Sumgait and Baku.
- The legal principle of territorial integrity took precedence over the ethical principle of national self-determination.
An unsolved diplomatic problem
- And for all their efforts, outside powers – Russia, France and the United States most importantly – failed to find a lasting diplomatic solution.
- Moscow was Armenia’s principal protector in a hostile neighborhood with two unfriendly states, Azerbaijan and Turkey, on its borders.
- Only Iran, treated as a pariah by much of the international community, provided some additional support, sporadically, to Armenia.
What might have been
- Alternatives and contingencies always exist in history and, if heeded by statespeople, can result in different outcomes.
- Yet the triumphant Armenian victors of the 1990s had few immediate incentives to compromise.
- Each side considered the contested enclave a piece of their ancient homeland, an indivisible good, and compromise proved impossible.
- Azerbaijan is a state three times the size of Armenia with a population larger by more than 7 million people.
Democracy versus autocracy
- For example, he boldly, publicly declared that “Artsakh” was part of Armenia, which infuriated Azerbaijan.
- This ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh – first through hunger, then by force of arms – completed the Azerbaijani victory.
- The defeated government of Artsakh declared it would officially dissolve the republic by the end of 2023.
Learning from defeat and victory
- They are forced to face hard facts.
- At the same time, victory can lead to prideful triumphalism that in its own way can distort what lies ahead.
- Voices have also been raised in Baku calling for a “Greater Azerbaijan” that would incorporate what they call “Western Azerbaijan” – that is, the current Republic of Armenia.
A chance for democratic renewal?
- The immediate tasks facing Armenia are enormous, beginning with the housing and feeding of 100,000 refugees.
- But this might also be a moment of opportunity.