Cute grandpa or authoritarian in waiting: who is Prabowo Subianto, the favourite to win Indonesia’s presidential election?
Ambitious and mercurial, with a dark past, former army general Prabowo Subianto has spent a lifetime vying for the ultimate prize in Indonesian politics. Now, with a large lead in the latest polls ahead of this week’s election, it looks as though the presidency is finally within his grasp. So, who is Prabowo and how will he change Indonesia if he wins?A rapid rise through the military ranks – and fallPrabowo’s grandfather was the founder of Indonesia’s first state bank and a prominent member of Indonesia’s independence movement.
Ambitious and mercurial, with a dark past, former army general Prabowo Subianto has spent a lifetime vying for the ultimate prize in Indonesian politics. Now, with a large lead in the latest polls ahead of this week’s election, it looks as though the presidency is finally within his grasp. So, who is Prabowo and how will he change Indonesia if he wins?
A rapid rise through the military ranks – and fall
- Prabowo’s grandfather was the founder of Indonesia’s first state bank and a prominent member of Indonesia’s independence movement.
- His father was a leading economist who served as minister of finance, minister of trade and minister for research in the government.
- An ambitious military officer serving mostly in the Special Forces (Kopassus), his marriage to a daughter of the authoritarian former president, Soeharto, fast-tracked his career.
- Prabowo rose to the rank of lieutenant general and, finally, the key position of commander of the powerful Army Strategic Reserve (Kostrad) in the capital, Jakarta.
- As Soeharto’s regime began to falter amid the financial crisis of 1997, Prabowo become involved in covert operations to defend Soeharto’s army-backed and repressive New Order regime against its critics.
- He went into voluntary exile in Jordan for some years and it seemed his career was over.
Three unsuccessful bids for higher office
- By 2009, he was a wealthy business figure and had co-founded his own political party, Gerindra.
- He had also rehabilitated himself enough to make a formal bid for power, running for vice president in the 2009 elections on a ticket with former president Megawati Soekarnoputri.
- In 2019, he tried once again against Jokowi, this time turning to conservative Islamists to support him.
- Dumping his supporters, he took the position of defence minister in the cabinet of his rival, Jokowi.
Controversial political moves
- In his current run for president, Prabowo has selected Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his vice-presidential running mate.
- (Although Jokowi has never explicitly endorsed Prabowo, Gibran’s candidacy makes Jokowi’s preferences crystal clear.)
- His actions also pose a major threat to PDI-P’s prospects in the legislative elections (held at the same time as the presidential vote).
- To the PDI-P leader, former president Megawati, and many of her supporters, Jokowi is now a traitor and enemy who may inflict huge damage on their political prospects.
Why this election matters
- However, Prabowo has undergone (yet another) spectacular reinvention in recent months that has helped as well.
- In fact, he has repeatedly said Indonesia’s democratic system is not working and the country should return to its original 1945 constitution.
- This would mean unravelling most of the reforms introduced since Soeharto fell, which are largely based on constitutional amendments.
- This means many have no memory of Soeharto’s oppressive and abusive New Order that Prabowo seems to want to revive.
Tim Lindsey receives funding from the Australian Research Council