Fatah

After 3 months of devastation in the Israel-Hamas war, is anyone 'winning'?

Retrieved on: 
Sunday, January 7, 2024

His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.

Key Points: 
  • His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.
  • Some 85% of Gazans have also been displaced and a quarter of the population is facing a famine, according to the United Nations.

Israel: limited success …

  • Israeli society is divided between those who want to prioritise negotiations to release the hostages and those who want to prioritise the elimination of Hamas.
  • Israel achieved an important symbolic success with the apparent targeted killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut on January 2.
  • Israel still has US support in the UN Security Council, which has managed to pass only one toothless resolution since the war began.

…and facing a ‘day after’ conundrum

  • US President Joe Biden prefers a Gaza government led by a reformed Palestinian Authority, but Netanyahu has rejected this and has not articulated an alternative plan.
  • Defence Minister Yoav Gallant this week outlined what seems to be his own plan for Gaza, involving governance by unspecified Palestinian authorities.
  • Whether or not that’s a fair judgement, it’s clear that internal divisions and indecision within his government are hindering Israel’s prosecution of the war.

Hamas – still standing

  • Hamas’ main achievement is that it is still standing.
  • To win, the militant group does not have to defeat Israel – it needs merely to survive the IDF onslaught.
  • Opinion polling also shows support for Hamas has risen from 12% to 44% in the West Bank and from 38% to 42% in Gaza in the past three months.

United States – weakness in dealing with Israel

  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken failed in his effort to persuade Israel to end the war by the start of the new year.
  • Moreover, divisions in the US may hurt Biden in the lead–up to the presidential election in November.
  • Republicans, taking their cue from Trump, are prioritising support for Israel and stopping the flow of migrants across the US-Mexico border.

United Nations – irrelevant


The UN has also failed in its mission of maintaining world peace. The only Security Council resolution on the war meant nothing, as Russia was pleased to point out. The recent UN General Assembly resolution illustrated Israel’s growing isolation, but has done nothing to change the course of the war. UN Secretary–General Antonio Guterres has been powerless to influence either Israel or Hamas.

Iran – watching for opportunities

  • But it takes its orders from Tehran, which still shows no sign of wanting to become directly involved in the war.
  • The bombings have been claimed by the Islamic State, which will likely make Iran more focused on its internal security than on assisting Hamas.


Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

How Israel failed to learn from the Northern Ireland peace process

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, January 3, 2024

The Good Friday agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland a quarter of a century ago, provided a clear guide.

Key Points: 
  • The Good Friday agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland a quarter of a century ago, provided a clear guide.
  • They have to do what the negotiating teams, of which I was a part, did in Northern Ireland.
  • The problem is Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his ally, the United States of America, who have failed to apply the lessons of Northern Ireland to Middle East peacemaking.

How ‘peace polls’ work

  • The objective was to determine the precise points of common ground, where they existed, or effective compromise where it was needed for peacemaking.
  • So I always made a point of hand delivering the reports to Mitchell and the parties the day before they were published.
  • Through public opinion polls the people gained a seat at the negotiating table, and through a referendum the deal was made.

When it all went wrong

  • I had been in touch with Mitchell and met him in his office at the State Department.
  • At that time I had also been running peace polls in Sri Lanka with support from the Norwegians.
  • So I did not get the funding and Mitchell eventually resigned his post without achieving peace in May 2011.
  • But I had made all necessary preparations and contacts with all the parties to the conflict to make it work.
  • My pollster Mina Zemach was a good friend of Peres and had been his pollster when he led the Labour party.
  • Like Sinn Féin they had a legitimate grievance and said they would be happy to cooperate with the peace polls.

Misplaced optimism

  • In my optimism at the time, I thought perhaps that Clinton – if she became president – would send her husband to the Middle East as her special envoy.
  • Bill Clinton had got very close to making an agreement some years earlier with the “Clinton parameters”, but he ran out of time.
  • And then Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election to Donald Trump – and so we are where we are.
  • It is just as likely that my optimism was misplaced and that Clinton and possibly Joe Biden – who has always been a very strong supporter of Israel – did not want to oppose Netanyahu for domestic political reasons.


Colin John Irwin receives funding from: Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, Center for Democracy and Reconciliation in South East Europe, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, OneVoice, Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (now FCDO), Economic and Social Research Council (UK ESRC), United Nations, InterPeace, Health and Welfare Canada, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), British Academy, Norwegian Peoples Aid, The Day After, No Peace Without Justice, US Department of State, Local Administrations Council Unit (Syria), Asia Foundation, Department for International Development (UK DFID), OpenAI, Atlantic Philanthropies, Universities: Dalhousie, Manitoba, Syracuse, Pennsylvania, Queens Belfast, Liverpool. Also member of the World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) which promotes freedom to publish public opinion polls and sets international professional standards.

Israel-Hamas war: six key moments for the Gaza Strip

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, October 26, 2023

More than 5,700 people in Gaza have been reportedly killed by Israeli airstrikes in two weeks of relentless bombardment – at least 2,000 of whom are children.

Key Points: 
  • More than 5,700 people in Gaza have been reportedly killed by Israeli airstrikes in two weeks of relentless bombardment – at least 2,000 of whom are children.
  • More than 200 more people, including women, children and elderly people, were seized and taken into Gaza.


How has such a tiny strip of land – less than half the size of Berlin – become so critical to the politics of an entire region? Over the past 75 years, the Gaza Strip has frequently been the focal point of the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Here are six key moments that led up to the current crisis:

1. 1948: Palestinian dispossession

  • By this time, more than 750,000 Palestinians – around three-quarters of the population – had been turned into refugees.
  • Their dispossession became known in Arabic as the Nakba (catastrophe).
  • The Strip’s famously dense population today can be traced directly to the dispossession of 1948.

2. 1956: First Israeli occupation of Gaza


As Gaza was administered by Egypt after 1948, it became a key battleground in the 1956 Suez crisis. After Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalised the Suez Canal Company, Britain, France and Israel launched an attack on Egypt. As part of this, Israel occupied Gaza with evidence of plans for long-term occupation.
In the event, due to US intervention, Israel and its allies were defeated and Washington forced Israel to withdraw its troops early in 1957. But this would not be the last time it occupied the Strip.

3. 1967: Israel begins long-term occupation of Gaza and the West Bank

  • It captured the Golan Heights from Syria, the West Bank from Jordan, and the Gaza Strip and the Sinai desert from Egypt.
  • This began its long-term military occupation of the two parts of Palestine not taken in 1948: the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

4. 1987: First intifada begins


In December 1987, an Israeli army truck crashed into a car in Gaza, killing four Palestinians. The incident sparked the beginning of the first intifada (uprising), which would eventually spread across the whole of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Palestinians in both occupied territories boycotted Israeli goods, refused to pay taxes, and withdrew their labour from Israeli employers. There was also widespread stone-throwing at Israeli army vehicles and soldiers. The intifada shook up longstanding Israeli assumptions that most Palestinians were passive in the face of the occupation, and is credited as a key factor in forcing negotiations in the early 1990s.

5. 1994: Yasser Arafat sets up the Palestinian Authority in Gaza


From 1993-95, the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat, signed the Oslo Accords, a set of agreements designed to pave the way for a full peace deal. Oslo allowed for limited Palestinian autonomy in parts of the occupied territories.

  • In 1994, Arafat was instrumental in establishing the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Gaza City, from which Israeli forces partially withdrew.
  • Read more:
    Inside the Oslo accords: a new podcast series marks 30 years since Israel-Palestine secret peace negotiations

6. 2007: Hamas takes power in Gaza

  • Again, the Gaza Strip was at the centre of this.
  • In 2006, Hamas won Palestinian parliamentary elections, taking 44% of the vote.
  • Since then, Palestinians in Gaza have faced continual violence, with particularly intensive Israeli bombing campaigns in 2008-9, 2012, 2014 and 2021.


Anne Irfan receives funding from the British Academy

Hamas and Hezbollah: how they are different and why they might cooperate against Israel

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, October 17, 2023

The most critical additional threat to Israel is from Hezbollah, the militant group and political party based across Israel’s northern border in Lebanon.

Key Points: 
  • The most critical additional threat to Israel is from Hezbollah, the militant group and political party based across Israel’s northern border in Lebanon.
  • Hamas and Hezbollah are both backed by Iran and see weakening Israel as their primary raison d’etre.
  • Hezbollah has not yet fully entered the current conflict, but the group has exchanged fire with Israel, across the northern border with Lebanon.

What is Hezbollah?

    • Its ideology is focused on expelling western powers from the Middle East and on rejecting Israel’s right to exist.
    • Hezbollah’s military force continued to develop after the Lebanese civil war came to an end in 1990, despite most other factions disarming.
    • In 2021, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group had 100,000 fighters (though other estimates range between 25,000 and 50,000).
    • Other Lebanese parties accuse Hezbollah of paralysing and undermining the state and of contributing to Lebanon’s persistent instability.

What is Hamas?

    • The group was founded in 1987, in Gaza, as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, a prominent Sunni group based in Egypt.
    • Emerging during what’s known as the first intifada or uprising of Palestinians against Israeli occupation, Hamas quickly adopted the principle of armed resistance and called for the annihilation of Israel.
    • Opposed to the peace process, Hamas’s armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, established itself as the primary force of armed resistance against Israel.

How are Hamas and Hezbollah different?

    • What’s more, as a Sunni organisation, Hamas does not share the Shia religious link to Iran that characterises Hezbollah and most of Iran’s proxies.
    • As a result, while Hamas no doubt benefits from Iran’s patronage, it tends to operate more independently than Hezbollah.
    • In contrast, Hamas has received support in the past from Turkey and Qatar, among others, and operates with relative autonomy.

Israel-Hamas war: history shows the dangers of a creeping occupation

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, October 17, 2023

The warning seemed to be aimed directly at voices within the Israeli government who are calling for Israel to not only destroy Hamas, but also to occupy the Palestinian territory.

Key Points: 
  • The warning seemed to be aimed directly at voices within the Israeli government who are calling for Israel to not only destroy Hamas, but also to occupy the Palestinian territory.
  • But, if history is anything to go by, then occupation – as a strategy to destroy Hamas – seems doomed to fail.

The realities of occupation

    • Indeed, the recent Hamas attacks serve as a painful reminder of the costs of occupation.
    • Military occupation is unlikely to kill the violent Hamas ideology.
    • So any sustained military occupation of Gaza is likely to garner more support for Hamas, rather than eradicate it.
    • Moreover, an occupation brings with it the responsibility of administering the daily lives of 2.3 million Palestinians.

Lessons from 1982

    • Israeli leaders should also learn the lessons of the last time the country tried to eradicate a terrorist group and impose regime change.
    • In 1982, the Israeli military invaded Southern Lebanon to remove the threat of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) to its northern towns.
    • None of Israel’s options to achieve its aim of destroying Hamas’s military capabilities are easy.

Recognition versus reality: Lessons from 30 years of talking about a Palestinian state

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, September 16, 2023

The occasion has served as a stark reminder of the unfulfilled promises and unresolved struggles of the Palestinian quest for statehood.

Key Points: 
  • The occasion has served as a stark reminder of the unfulfilled promises and unresolved struggles of the Palestinian quest for statehood.
  • The simplistic question of whether Palestine has statehood or not obscures its broader struggle for recognition, dignity and human rights.

Rethinking sovereignty


    Sovereignty is a complex concept with multiple dimensions. In his 1999 book Sovereignty: Organized Hypocrisy, American international relations scholar Stephen Krasner identified four key aspects:
    Almost 25 years since the book’s publication, these aspects still provide a nuanced framework to understand the various facets of statehood and enable a more comprehensive exploration of the Palestinian quest for sovereignty. The history of Palestinian statehood is marked by shifts in Krasner’s sovereignty categories. Understanding them can shed light on the complex dynamics and key challenges in the Palestinian statehood pursuit.

Domestic sovereignty

    • Palestine’s struggle for domestic sovereignty, or control within the Palestinian territory, can be traced back to what’s known as the British Mandate period, leading to the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948.
    • Internal divisions within the Palestinian policy have further undermined domestic sovereignty.

Interdependence sovereignty


    Israeli restrictions on movement and trade have historically limited Palestinian efforts to control transborder flows. The Paris Protocol of 1994 aimed to regulate economic relations between Israel and the Palestinian territories, but led to a lopsided dependency on Israeli goods and labour markets. The blockade of Gaza since 2007 has further constrained interdependence sovereignty.

International legal sovereignty

    • The journey towards international legal sovereignty for Palestine has involved significant milestones, such as the Arab League’s recognition of the Palestine Liberation Organization as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people in 1974.
    • The United Nations General Assembly’s acceptance of Palestine as a non-member observer state in 2012 marked further progress, yet full UN membership remains elusive.

Westphalian sovereignty

    • The principle of non-intervention in Palestinian affairs has been consistently challenged by Israeli occupation, settlement expansion and international mediation efforts.
    • Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and long inaction by the Quartet, the group has been criticized for lacking legitimacy.

Recent developments

    • That’s in an attempt to amplify its global presence and cement its domestic dominance.
    • The granting of non-member observer state status to Palestine by the UN General Assembly in 2012 was significant for international legal sovereignty, providing recognition in international law.

Violence, setbacks

    • The struggles and setbacks of the Palestinian quest for statehood have been worsened by recent shifts in U.S. policy, each undermining different dimensions of Palestinian sovereignty.
    • These setbacks have been intensified by the grim fact that 2022 was the deadliest year for Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank in 16 years.
    • Under the Barack Obama administration from 2009 to 2017, the U.S. failed to negotiate a two-state solution and increased military aid to Israel.
    • Meanwhile, the current Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has exhibited extreme hostility towards Palestinian statehood.

International politics

    • These policy failures reflect the intricate and often contradictory nature of international engagement with Palestine, leaving the prospects for statehood entangled in global politics.
    • The Palestinian quest for statehood is now little more than a mirage within a disheartening landscape of renewed Israeli resolve, escalating desperation, violence and increasing international apathy.

Death in Jenin: Israel's biggest attack in the West Bank in 20 years is down to Netanyahu's political weakness – here's why

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Israeli forces say they have completed a 48-hour military operation in the West Bank city of Jenin – the largest in two decades.

Key Points: 
  • Israeli forces say they have completed a 48-hour military operation in the West Bank city of Jenin – the largest in two decades.
  • Beginning on Monday, July 3, the Israel Defence Force (IDF) hit the city with drone strikes, sending in hundreds of troops and bulldozing through the narrow streets.

Why target Jenin?

    • A large section of the refugee camp was razed and it was reported that the Israeli military blocked humanitarian assistance to the camp.
    • The UN reported that 52 Palestinians, up to half of whom may have been civilians, and 23 Israeli soldiers were killed.
    • The Battle of Jenin was for many Palestinians a “heroic symbol of resilience and resistance against Israeli rule”.
    • According to IDF data, of the 290 attacks on Israelis emanating from the West Bank since June 2022, 106 came from Jenin.

A weakened prime minister

    • While the IDF was reluctant to risk being dragged into a lengthy and complicated ground assault, Israeli politicians had different considerations.
    • The prime minister needs their support to keep him in the premiership.
    • To regain domestic favour and quieten his critics, perhaps Netanyahu has stepped over a line even he would not have crossed previously.
    • But history tells us that the cycle of violence will continue and neither the Israeli nor Palestinian leadership have the power, or will, to stop it.

Jenin has long been seen as the capital of Palestinian resistance and militancy – the latest raid will do little to shake that reputation

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Israeli troops withdrew from Jenin on July 4, 2023 after two days of heavy aerial bombardment and ground invasion.

Key Points: 
  • Israeli troops withdrew from Jenin on July 4, 2023 after two days of heavy aerial bombardment and ground invasion.
  • According to reports, 12 Palestinians were killed and over 100 wounded in what the Israeli military described as a “counter-terrorism operation”.
  • Understanding this history helps explain why the Jenin camp in particular has become a center of Palestinian militant resistance.

Camp conditions

    • The UN Relief and Works Agency established the Jenin camp in 1953, just west of the city.
    • Camp conditions have always been difficult.
    • The Jenin camp soon became the poorest and most densely populated of the West Bank’s 19 refugee camps.

The rise of militancy

    • Seeing no other path forward, many of the camp’s young refugees turned to armed resistance.
    • Such acts of apparent collective punishment reinforced the idea for many Palestinians that the Israeli occupation could only be ended by force.
    • By the time the second intifada broke out in 2000, many of the camp’s teenagers joined militant groups.
    • Like the youth of the 1980s, they, too, concluded that only armed resistance would bring an end to the occupation.

A cycle of violence?

    • In April 2002 the Israeli army invaded the Jenin camp, hoping to put an end to such armed groups.
    • It was during such a raid that Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh was killed by an Israeli soldier.
    • The latest raid, as many journalists have noted, may be the biggest operation in the camp in 20 years.

U.S. Senate Candidate Khaled Salem Demands Interpol Cooperation to Identify Hamas Terrorist Leaders

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Hamas is deeply connected with Qatar and Candidate Salem wants them brought to justice for continuing war crimes against the State of Israel.

Key Points: 
  • Hamas is deeply connected with Qatar and Candidate Salem wants them brought to justice for continuing war crimes against the State of Israel.
  • It is widely known that, since 2012, there has been cooperation between the Qatari government and the Hamas leader, Haniyeh.
  • However, Candidate Salem wants terrorists hiding behind the scenes in Gaza and "protected by Qatar's smokescreen" to be exposed and their war crimes brought to light.
  • "Hamas is a terror group and must be eradicated," said Salem, who is also the CEO of American Human Rights Organization.

U.S. Senate Candidate Khaled Salem Advises Israel and United Nations to Double Down and End Hamas Terrorism Forever

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, May 25, 2021

The terrorist-sponsored nations know that Israel is the first line of defense for western civilization against radical Islam.

Key Points: 
  • The terrorist-sponsored nations know that Israel is the first line of defense for western civilization against radical Islam.
  • I commend the Israeli military and admire its efforts over 11 days of fighting as Israel defends its citizens.
  • Hamas, Hezbollah, Fatah, Iran, various Arab nations and Turkey are behind the scenes and intent on Israel's demise.
  • As Khaled explained, if Hamas and Hezbollah gain access to the West Bank, Israel could be decimated in hours.