House of Representatives

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• After months of wrangling, the US Senate has finally passed Joe Biden’s US$95 billion (£75 billion) foreign aid package.
• Ukraine is the destination for almost two-thirds of the aid, with US$14 billion set aside to assist Israel’s war against Hamas, and US$10 billion destined for humanitarian aid in conflict areas, such as Gaza.
• But two Democrats and Bernie Sanders, the independent senator for Vermont, voted against the bill because of its support of Israel.
• McConnell has always been supportive of Ukraine, claiming it is in the US interest to support Ukraine.
• But, as with his position on the Ukraine aid package, not all Republicans support his views.

Now for the House

• In an interview with US politics website Politico, McConnell asked Johnson to “allow the House to work its will on the issue of Ukraine aid”.
• House Republicans have called the bill a “waste of time” and “dead on arrival” in the lower chamber.
• House support for the war in the Ukraine has fallen, especially as Republicans have begun to scrutinise the details of US assistance to Kyiv.
• This is a mechanism by which matters can be brought before the House without the sponsorship of the majority leadership.

Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• In early February 2024, a group of senators proposed new immigration legislation that would have slowed the migrant influx at the border.
• This is far from the first time that Democrats and Republicans have failed to pass legislation that was intended to improve the country’s immigration system.
• Here are four key reasons why meaningful immigration policy change has been so difficult to achieve – and why it remains a pipe dream:

1. Immigration reform has always been hard

• The U.S. has faced major roadblocks every time it has tried to achieve immigration reform.
• The final bipartisan bargain removed racist quotas but appeased those who wanted to restrict immigration by prioritizing new immigrants’ connections to family already in the country – a preference that lawmakers thought would favor Europeans.
• The last big immigration reform happened in 1986, when Congress passed the Immigration Reform and Control Act.

2. The US is more polarized on immigration than ever before

• But partisan and ideological polarization over border control and immigrants’ rights is greater today than any other time.
• Over the past 20 years, Democratic and Republican voters and politicians alike became more firmly aligned with rival pro- and anti-immigration rights movements.
• In 2008, 46% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats said they thought immigration to the U.S. should be decreased.
• In 2023, GOP support for decreased immigration soared to 73%, compared with just 18% of Democrats who said they wanted that.

3. There’s little bipartisan agreement over what the problem actually is

• Yet different political groups cannot agree on what exactly is wrong and how to solve it.
• For some Republicans, including former Trump, the problem is lax border control and permissive policies that allow dangerous migrants to enter and stay in the country.
• Right-wing politicians and commentators, like Tucker Carlson, have exploited these anxieties, warning that large-scale immigration will “replace” white Americans.
• There are also conservatives who think immigration is consistent with the principles of individual liberty, entrepreneurship and national economic growth.

4. Immigration reform is especially messy in a presidential election year

• Presidential election years are fertile ground for politicking on immigrants and borders, but not lasting policy reform.
• In 2021, President Joe Biden and his supporters introduced an immigration bill that would offer a pathway to legal residency for nearly all undocumented immigrants.
• Now, Biden finds himself underwater with voters, including Democrats, on immigration and the perceived chaos at the border.

Daniel Tichenor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• The Senate’s Democrat majority leader, Chuck Schumer, has said: “The survival of Ukraine is on the line” – something reinforced by reports that
  the Ukrainian army is running low on ammunition.
• These involve an expedited asylum processing time, from years to six months, and raising the standard of proof for an asylum claim.
• Also included is a measure to restrict crossings if migrant levels reach 4,000 over a one-week period.

What the polls say

• Is the US providing too much aid to Ukraine?
• In a Gallup survey from November 2023, some 44% of independents, who are the pivotal group in US electoral politics, thought this too.
• This helps to explain why the Republicans in Congress are pursuing a policy which arguably puts US long-term security at risk, if Ukraine loses the war.
• However, it is noteworthy that providing arms was the second most popular alternative, and sending military support staff the fourth most popular.

Who favoured aid to Ukraine?

• If we look at the category of CES respondents who favoured sending arms to Ukraine, a few things stand out in comparison with the population of the US in general.
• Around 28% of college graduates, compared with only 21% of high school graduates, favoured arms to Ukraine.
• Finally, 42% were from a household where someone had served in the military in the past, compared with 35% generally.

Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC